h2005__uk__

I came across some old weather forecasts on Youtube for the October 2011 heatwave. With the models painting a bleak picture for the remainder of this summer, it was a nice reminder of how autumn can come up trumps. What was the cause of that heatwave? Was it an extraordinary set up that's not likely to be repeated any time soon? I'd forgotten how long it went on for - there were several days of real heat which followed a warm end to September. I was in the USA for the two weeks after where the weather was also extra warm, so I timed it well and had about four weeks of my own mini summer. It was a shock when I returned home though because England had gone into full autumnal mode!

Thanks. I'm not familiar with his methods but I'm aware he's provided info for the Express (enough said). What does he base his forecasts on?! Not one model is remotely suggesting any significant rise in temperature; certainly not before the end of August anyway.

Where is he saying this?

Oh dear, WeatherPro is forecasting a max of 15C for Chelmsford on Tuesday :/

I'd really love this summer to have a sting in the tail and dish up a heatwave in early September, with the BBC predicting temps in the low 30s and the Express predicting that everyone will be roasted alive. The Express probably will make that prediction, but unfortunately I can't see a heatwave coming with it!

Liam Dutton from Channel 4 weather has posted a blog entry about it being cool and unsettled until the end of Aug: http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/cool-unsettled-rest-august/7063 What he says is generally in agreement with the models, although a bit at odds with the BBC's 'hints' of a warmer spell at the end of Aug.

I'd been in Wales for a couple of weeks - where the sun sets about 20 mins later - so I really noticed the difference in sunsets when I returned to the south-east on Friday.

I like spring and early summer the best. There's a good chance of warm, settled spells and the lengthening of the days is very welcome after winter's darkness. Plus any bad weather can be tolerated because you know there's still a good couple of summer months to go. Compare that to August where the days are noticeably shorter and any bad weather is made worse by knowing autumn's on its way! I like interesting weather, including very hot spells in the summer and a couple of good snow events in the winter. I'd rather have a fortnight heatwave than a fortnight of snow and ice though. I think my least favourite season is the late winter period around February - by that point I'm eager for spring to arrive as I start to get tired of the coldness and darkness of winter!

I don't think the end of summer will be hot judging from the models (temps no higher than the low 20s from what I can see), but at least it's looking like it could be fairly settled which will be a nice way to finish the season.

Which models are you referring to specifically? Are you just referring to your location?

I'm confused about what BBC Weather (on TV) are saying - apparently a few days ago they were saying summer's over, but then last night they were apparently saying there's a posible return to summer weather at the end of the month. Maybe they're just reacting to what the models are showing longer-term.

I can't remember the last summer that's had as many thunderstorms as this one - I've experienced one or two a week for about a month now, the best being the one on the evening of 18th Jul. There was one in the early hours of 18th Jul too which was a cracker (literally) - probably the best storm I'd experienced in England for 5 years. I was out in the sun today at about 1pm and it was striking just how hot it still is - a reminder that it's still very much summer; despite the autumnal models, Christmas displays in shops and X Factor trailers!

Yes, I've experienced the same which I detailed more in this post: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79920-summer-2014-thread/?p=3022978

This is highlighted in the fact that I recorded 70% more rainfall in July than average, making it wetter in percentage-of-average terms than any of the wet months last winter. The reality is that most of July's rain fell here during a few intense thunderstorms.

Since the beginning of July, I've recorded: -- 5 days with a max of <20C (and today was the first <20C day for 16 days!) -- 15 days with a max of >25C -- 2 days with a max of >28C (and an overall max of 28.9C) June was less notable for its warmth, but I think the main bulk of this summer has been great in my location in terms of consistent amounts of warmth, but not so good in producing a sustained heatwave and/or lots of very hot days like we had last summer. I suspect there may be one or two more >25C days in my location this year, but I don't think I'll beat my max of 28.9C on 18 Jul. I'm in-between the Writtle and Andrewsfield official stations - and on 18 Jul, which was the only day to reach 30C around here, Writtle recorded almost 33 but Andrewsfield barely touched 30 - even though there's only 11 miles between them! I generally record temps closer to the Andrewsfield station so I'm not surprised I struggled to get 30 on 18 Jul.

The 12z runs have well and truly knocked that on the head!

I see the midnight runs of GEFS and GFS show high pressure building for the bank holiday weekend with temps in the low-mid 20s. GEM has pressure building sooner with temps briefly in the high 20s in the south during next week. However that's quite a way off and I don't think it ties in generally with what other models are hinting at. Worth keeping an eye on though.

Seems like it could be an interesting few weeks for the models as we head nearer September. Were the models similarly interesting this time last year? (I wasn't following this forum then!)

It depends what criteria you use to judge it on. This summer's been the best for years in terms of overall temps and sunshine, but there have been comparatively few very hot (30C+) days. Personally I think this summer was better than last year because there's been more sunshine and overall warmth this year.

This is the third or fourth time over the last fortnight that the models have teased us with a sign to some settled conditions - hopefully they'll deliver this time. Of course ideally we'd have a Spanish plume event before summer's over! (Swiftly followed by early snow in October of course, to balance things out and please everyone here )

Yes - there's a tendency to think autumn's on its way in August if the weather's naff and the forecast doesn't look great (and it wasn't helped for me yesterday when I saw a charity shop kitted out with full Christmas display, plus a trailer for X Factor on TV!). Judging from recent posts on here, I think I'm now obliged to say "oh well it was good while it lasted, can't complain...".

I'd have thought this could happen and it surely wouldn't take much as it's still August. The near future doesn't look great on the models, but I don't think anything can be set in stone for the rest of the month - especially when Bertha's still having an effect.

September sometimes reaches the high 20s (and maybe even 30) though, at least in the south-east. One of the BBC TV forecasts earlier in the summer mentioned how the last 30C was last September, so 2013 is a good example.

That's interesting. Can you remember what the rest of August 2005 had been like? I don't remember it being overly warm, although I recall the July being a fairly hot one.

What sort of effect could that have on the weather?