JeffC

Snowing here!

It's snowing here in Coniston - moderately heavy, settling and covering quite quickly

Both of you are right, except for that can't be the silliest thing you've ever heard...never seen a party political broadcast?!

I think I need a paracetamol now...my brain aches

and you can see temperature difference here http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-24.41,94.29,327

I think that people are getting mixed up between the MOD - Model Output Discussion and MOD as in abbreviation for moderators which changes the meaning and turns it into something nonsensical...

this makes interesting viewing - well it does in my book! you can see pretty much real time temps at a variety of Hpa levels... http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-17.43,90.99,353

Fair enough, you're quite correct re day length and the height of the sun, but when conditions on the surface you can get lying snow, even at low levels quite late on in the year. You only need go back as far as March 2013 when the western side of the country had heavy snow on 22nd March and it was still struggling to get above zero on April 1st. So we had at least 10 days of "proper" winter in the meteorlogical spring. History will no doubt be littered with such examples...isn't it a statistic that Snow is more likely on Easter Sunday than Christmas Day? I'd love nothing more than a real cold, lake freezing, snow drifting, road blocking cold period, yes, it's a bit of a sod that it's not showing as of yet, but I think it's a bit early to write off any meaningful cold spell just yet, be it in the "winter" or the "spring"

Total novice tbh, But if you look at this link, you can actually see the temperature difference now in N Russia at 10 hpa I think. Most of the strat is at -50 to -70 and yet there's an area of about -25to -30C in siberia... http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/12/25/1200Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=64.59,58.52,327

My knowledge is limited to watching and trying to digest what the other sages on here manage to decipher and post about. The one caveat I'd have to all of this is that we'#re forecast to have a bit of a storm / deep depression 26-27th (ish), What happens after that isn't pinned down (if you can call the forecast up until then reliable then you're braver than me!) But what I have learned is that sometimes after a major event like the one forecast on 26/27th, it heralds a change. It did in August which ended up with the only below average CET for 2014 (so far - probably the only one at all) and there are a number of examples in the past. Seems to me the models are trying to work with unreliable / unpredictable data, hence why we end up with so many potential solutions with no one model being especially more reliable or consistent than the next...the strat warming may also be bugging the data, although not sure if / how that can be introduced into the models. I've already seen snow this winter, albeit briefly so maybe I'm lucky, but we're still way ahead of 13/14!

We can but hope and that the cold wins out. Maybe we should get Harry Hill to introduce it...FIGHT!!!

Too popular for your own good Recretos - drop box 509 - This account's public links are generating too much traffic and have been temporarily disabled! I have to say I think your 3 D representations of the Polar Vortex are worthy of the Turner Prize!!

Doesn't necessarily help re University but is the Met or similar not offering any apprenticeships? When I left after A levels the emphasis was less on going to Uni and I'd had enough tutoring anyway by that point, so I got a job and did chemistry etc on day release. Have to say colleagues / friends who also did earn while you learn are in better position's now than those who went the Uni route...

Yes, but late March 2013 snow stayed round for ages here 1 because it was blooming cold, 2. because there was so much of it! 14" level by the Saturday morning, then the moaning bitter easterly whipped up and caused some interesting drifts at low levels which higher up on the fells translated into 10 and 15 feet drifts...in the words of Max Boyce I know, cos I was there! Snow stayed at low levels until after Easter and that was April...

If I read that correctly, the very interesting bit is that irresepctive of the height of sunspot activity the incidence of colder winters is predominant in the descent from a solar max..?

could also be to do with humidity....or lack of

Am I missing something here? Aren't these forecasters using models which have had input data from possibly up to 3-4 weeks ago when OPI wasn't factored in or El Nino gathering a little more pace? Therefore with the benefit of a few weeks more data the models may well throw out something more encouraging for us coldies and we shouldn't go in Corporal Jones mode just yet! (showing my age there!)

a few folk have jumped on board with me at 9.8C...

of course that - +9.8'C not -9.8'C that would be noteworthy

Gonna risk it for a biscuit - 9.8'C for me please

Just hope for there sake all 5000mm doesn't arrive all at once...that's a lot, and "I knows me rain"!

Have to say that in my neck of the woods the leaves really are turning a bit earlier than average - oak, hazel and beech. Seems to be more beech nuts around this year too - although not sure that actually means anything weather-wise. Certainly Blackberries have ripened earlier than usual. I can understand fruit doing better because for the most part it's been a good growing year - not too dry and plenty of sun through July, but not sure why the leaves are turning, as they'd started to show some colour before the "Bertha drop off" temperature wise...

in our house when it gets chilly we get the candles out. When it gets really cold...we light them

Not a chance of heating going on until at least November, put a jumper on, if I'm still cold I put a thin fleece shirt over the top while I'm working from home.

First post on here, so be gentle with me! out for a walk this morning and there was a distinct autumnal feel - post high winds though so maybe it's just that. In saying that though there are signs of things being "on the turn" there are some trees with leaves showing yellow, some of the bracken is turning and nettles are dying back. Blackberries seem ready a touch earlier than usual. It was quite wet overnight too, becks running well!