mhielte
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Posts posted by mhielte
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2 hours ago, Scorcher said:
There is no evidence for this at all. Interested to know where this expectation has come from?
The models can't even decide what is happening in a week's time, let alone for the rest of the summer.
I find that long term predictions from members of this forum are almost always clouded by bias.
I would also like to know the answer to this from @damianslaw. Unlike the other posters who have a clear agenda, Damian is very knowledgeable and level-headed, so I am keen to know his reasons behind writing off the entirety of summer
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Random question: Does anyone have a working link to a Bridlington webcam that shows the beach? I'm struggling to find anything online
TIA!
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Bring it on, let's get a more changeable and unsettled period out of the way early July, perhaps for a couple of weeks and then by the time the school holidays come round bring back a limpet UK high
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I wouldn't worry about any mid-level cloud turning sunshine hazy. Developments will be explosive later, as was illustrated yesterday. Cells reached maturity very fast indeed and once we get going properly, we'll know about it.
Plenty of time for those in the risk areas.
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It is definitely not a warm outlook to close out May (and meteorological spring), but I'd hold off saying it looks firmly unsettled (it doesn't). GFS looks rotten for Iberia, not the UK.
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Schools around here shutting at 1pm.
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4 minutes ago, 1947s coming said:
Possibly so and big difference from area to area
Definitely wouldn’t give up yet tho but I would say further west is best . Easy over 7cm here in north Sheffield now and possibly later comes the really heavy stuff and wind
It has always been marginal for the very low lying areas <100m, that's not changed. My current work location is above 200m in north Sheffield and it's 8-10cm comfortably away from roads and pavements.
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I'm working IT in north Sheffield today and it has picked up a fair bit in the last half hour. Surfaces that were struggling to get cover are now completely white. As Tim says other surfaces have quite a bit already.
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6 minutes ago, terrier said:
I think a very frustrating day ahead for many of us. Been a mix of sleet and light snow here. Roads and pavements are absolutely soaked now. Maybe we will see something later on. But as a few have mentioned already the graphics have changed considerably on the latest weather. I know the amber alert is from 3pm onwards today but I’m sceptical I have to admit.
Please ignore the graphics, they are irrelevant today. It's 9:30am. Those in the amber warning need not worry.
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27 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Im the south it’s still good thurs morning, then it heads north, but then it’s really Good Friday morning too - I imagine quite a melt between then though
The arome is similar thurs morning with snow heavy, and quite far south
Would think as the system pushes northwards that those in the snow at first - so the south - would see it turn back to rain as the milder air heads in. Could be a tricky commute though!
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26 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:
It is, it did shift about 20 miles North tho,
0 line running through Leicester!
I'm a bit dubious of it showing snow south of this line in positive uppers?
Ties in with Thursday's Met Office warning text with areas in the south of the warning zone occasionally seeing sleet or rain, especially at lower elevations. It'll be a fluid situation for sure!
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10 minutes ago, The PIT said:
Radar shows it's snowing here and the sun is out. Shows that it can lie at times.
Yes little faith in this snizzle this morning, perhaps something a bit better scraping in later on, as per the warning. For now the light stuff is up in the clouds and evaporating before it precipitates.
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Any thing today is just a bonus, one would think. I'm not convinced even if we do get something from the southwest today that a) it'll be of any notable intensity and b) that enough will fall to settle.
That being said, the Met Office apps are bullish for this afternoon so I guess we will see. Eyes to the skies
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I'm not sure there has been any real trend south of Thursday's system in the last day or two - merely just run to run variation.
There was a trend south, a more marked one, before then which brought the likes of the far N of England/borders out of the game - basically the northern portion of the Met Office warning area. Since then though, it has been more about today's system being further north.
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Yes the 06z is better than the 00z for the reasons Paul states above. Overnight into Friday morning looks very snowy as the system pivots back southwards.
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It will be interesting to see updates to the warning areas today, assuming there will be.
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4 minutes ago, Craigers said:
Anyone seen the updated metoffice saying heavy snow showers today?
The UKV and other hi-res models show today's rain/sleet/snow mix heading into the south of the county. I think some will be at risk of snow from the bigger showers coming inland from the North Sea, too. There is quite a lot going on, it must be said!
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11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
They obviously think a shift south is coming in the models. That would put the snow line almost to the M4
Isn't the low already on its way back south by then anyway? It does pivot back overnight into Friday. If we could see the Thursday 18z FAX it would likely be a little north, no?
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49 minutes ago, Day 10 said:
Correction South on the ICON.
More in line with the 12zs from GFS and ARPEGE models this afternoon
A consensus emerging, dare we say it?
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8 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:
Looking at all the charts it's going to be quite marginal especially for low lying areas.
Even up at LBA at 200m it's going to be 1.c for most of the event.
I don't think anyone should get too optimistic just in case it goes left.
GFS has our region at zero or negative dewpoints throughout, so I think it won't matter much if the temperature is above freezing. Given the precipitation should be decent as well, evaporative cooling will play a part, too.
As you have said as well, GFS has provided us with a nice southward shift this afternoon. ARPEGE 12z remains consistent to its earlier runs as well.
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3 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:
It does but I'm honestly not worried about precipitation at this stage. Get the cold in and then see - as already alluded to earlier, December showed how snowy surprises can pop up at short notice. Of course, most would love to see a widespread snow event but lets see what the coming runs bring.
I know not far from me in Sheffield there was a surprise snow event on a Sunday in December. It was at the beginning of that cold spell and it was not forecast. The small area of precipitation gave many areas there a good covering that didn't shift for a week.
As you say, no point worrying about precipitation as the models will chop and change
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1 hour ago, TSNWK said:
Average across the nation I would say. Not brave at all. Easy with all the data being shown. But thanks anyway
When has it ever been useful to average out the temperatures and weather conditions across an entire country? Especially one as varied as the UK.
I just do not understand such a viewpoint.
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11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
The ECM had the better upstream pattern at day 6 but the reluctance to clear the low sufficiently east and se is an issue .
The low gets fed energy from the ne and so is very slow to fill .
The ECM does have the best forcing from the Arctic high which is more favourably orientated but it’s a hard slog to force the pattern further south at this point .
Overall the ECM is an improvement on last night in its later stages and how far north the jet is come the day open to revision .
Not the fireworks many were hoping for but I wouldn’t be throwing in the towel just yet !
Wise words, Nick. Especially that last line given some of the usual dramatics this morning!
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by mhielte
Absolutely! It's correct of course to draw an unsettled conclusion from the charts but the video you link to explains the nuances of the output very well. It is telling to see the usual names pop up when low pressure is dominating as they take great pleasure (yes, they really do) in stating that conditions every day will be rainy and cold. Guess what? We've had trough domination this week yet sveral days here, and in other places, have been usable and fair thanks to the nature of showers being hit and miss. Next week will be the same.
Then you get these short windows (Fri/Sat) when the nearby heat pump pays a passing visit and you're reminded that's actually against the norm and a real treat. I daresay 7-10 days ago the GFS/ECM whatever had the trough slap bang over us rather than just to the west.
Yes the outlook isn't brilliant in the next 7-10 days, but it isn't the washout that some want it to be
edit: point proven above!