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marksiwnc

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    Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

    There's marked ensemble spread in 500hPa GPH plumes post-29th Nov, with no *firm* evidence - yet - for pronounced cold weather in the 12z extended clusters (= just as many less cold members). 

    Hi Ian is Nxt weeks breakdown from the west /NW a guarantee according to your models or are they like all other models getting conflicting info and anything is virtually up in the air? 

    Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

    Fascinating circumstances and prospects right now.

    First week of December coming into view, and, with not all the ducks properly aligned (just yet), we are looking at below average temps for much of UK, more so Scotland.

    The convective anomaly centred over the Indian Ocean is showing eastward propagation. Slow, but steady.

    twc_globe_mjo_vp200.jpg

    As soon as that hits the Maritimes, we should see a more amplified hemispheric pattern develop centred on a poleward displaced North Pacific ridge. We are already beginning to see this in the extended range modelling.

    The mid Atlantic ridge also likely to gain traction under this regime.

    Angular momentum will also spike once the convective wave pushes into the West Pacific with a +ve mountain torque, with likely hemispheric reinforcement of Rossby Wave pattern.

    The stratosphere also holding deep interest. That ridge associated with the initial warming phase is starting to look like it will drift around the Arctic basin, becoming Atlantic based week 2-3. With another warming over Siberia, the Aleutian stratospheric ridge likely to be in play over the top of a tropospheric ridge - could well be a sizeable height anomaly developing in the North Pacific through Alaska during that time. So that means we may well have two ridges peprendicular to the Pole - ripe conditions to support tropospheric cross polar ridges. Keep an eye on the GFS and GEFS as they are just starting to advertise early stages of this.

    That sounds a lot more promising. I remember our conversation from last week for the fun and games to start dec10th ish.  Looks like your going to be close and with @fergieweather informing us of mid December being on the cold side then hopefully we will see some lovely winter charts with a few snow opportunities (I think more especially coastal areas prone to showers from N/NW/NE.)  let's hope so. 

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

    Another run, another ensemble mean suggesting quite an aggressive +ve height anomaly developing over Hudson Bay in the week 2 period with a switch in the flow to the southern arm of the jet over the US. Western Europe left under a weakish upper trough signal (temps marginally below average).

    Two things to ponder here. 

    What's to stop the westward movement of the upper ridge over the Canadian Arctic ? There may be some stratospheric-tropospheric coupling going on, but over time we would normally expect such features to shift their position westwards. That allows for the controlling influence of the Canadian ridge to be negated downstream. With the pattern of tropical convective rainfall beginning to creep back towards the Maritime Continent (non-MJO component), this suggest mid Atlantic / possibly Barents Sea / Scandinavia area modest ridge development. These won't be too obvious on week 2 means or even spreads, but small scale mid to high latitude ridges developing within a flow which is well displaced of its norm would be interesting.

    Within this context, stratospheric warming impacts will be around the week 3 / week 4 periods. The tell tale signature for vortex splits is very cold 850 values pouring into NW Russia and Northern Scandinavia. Helsinki, Moscow and Murmansk the locations to keep an eye on for extended range ensembles. Some twitching of ensembles for these locations staring to occur but nothing stark just yet.

    Intriguing times.

    Gp I know you used to provide an in depth summary of the weather for winter especially.  but if you were to place a bet. where would your money be on the likelihood of a very cold snowy outbreak around mid December (or give some kind of percentage wise)  

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Still looking at that D10-D15 period ... regardless of uppers, fairly cold at the surface on both ECM (De Bilt) and GEFS (central England) - that ECM control run looks frigid.

    graphe6_1000_256_49___.gif  pluim_06260_0_00_60.png

     

    Got a gut feeling though that, slightly along the lines of the ECM, we may see another trough slip through the Atlantic block between T192 and T264, and a fresh build of pressure towards Greenland behind? In other words, a repeat of the D1-D5 scenario?

    Temps seem to be dropping at the end too which is nice to see. Remember around the 10th Dec is when I expect the fun and games to start 

    Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

    The period by late Nov / early Dec is certainly not without interest, but whether we see technical SSW is another matter. In a way it's by-the-by, because the underpinning signal is conclusively for an exceptionally weakened/disturbed PV into that period and hemispherically, the 300hPa GPH fields really couldn't paint a picture more foretelling of the enhanced blocking potential. 

    I have a sneaky feeling that Ian has more info that he can't confirm at present but the chances of quite a substantial cold spell happening from 29/30  onwards is quite big. I've said this since end of October..  I think December will get colder through the month but not masses of snow only glancing blows from the Atlantic for south Western areas and Ireland.  anyway let's hope

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

    Now this is an update - a while away yet but this could be quite some December we have coming if this came to fruition !!

    Hahahahha Fergie playing the game surely is a good omen.  I think that weather systems pushing up against a strong block over the north of the British Isles would and hopefully will provide some snow at least although hopefully nothing major as I don't know how this country would cope to be honest.  

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    hhhmmmm...personally can't see anything in the way of +ve height anomalies to the W/NW as per GloSea/EC of the UK going by the last few op runs from both GFS/ECM heading towards the last 1/3rd of the month, possible blocking to the east yes but unfortunately we could be the 'buffers' for a period and lots of cool wet weather. Nothing too appealing in my eyes.

    As Fergie mentioned no Atlantic train as per previous winters just something a bit different with a varying jetstream.

    I'm sure the blocking is not until start of December or last few days of November.  I might be wrong.  interesting model viewing at the moment 

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I remember the models were flipping and flopping prior to the major cold in 2010 and to have the met office on board surely is enough confirmation that's it's going to be colder.  especially after their outlook update today with the month getting colder and snow to even low levels in the north.  I expect the south and especially central parts to be hit by some of the white stuff by the end of this month.  time will tell I suppose 

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, fergieweather said:

    ...albeit equally interesting how we now have an emergent if presently minority cluster (circa 10% in 12z ENS) from the 19th, which - rather than raise heights over Greenland - instead do so markedly above Scandinavia and the White Sea, with a cut-off vortex to our south and a resultant net easterly flow. Varied medium-range shenanigans loom (persist!?), methinks

     

    Hahahahah Ian you know how to wind the coldies up lmao..  I can see December being cold with a wishbone effect on some costs resulting in quite a dumping of snow on exposed coasts.  that's my pounds worth.  interspersed with drier colder weather in-between.  also a few weather systems brushing the south at times.  .. see if I'm right come Christmas 

    1 minute ago, fergieweather said:

     

    • Like 1

    Winter 2016/2017: Preliminary Prediction

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    HP to W and NW. Displaced PV towards Scandinavia at times....Dec.  Flow mainly N of West with some potent shots from the north. General early theme.  Not a constant freeze out.  Early thoughts...

     

    BFTP

    Is this your preliminary thought for the start of winter then mate??  anyone would take this anyday surely.   any chance of a detailed summary?? 

    General Volcanic Activity Thread!

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    7 hours ago, pip22 said:

    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/volcanologists-fear-infamous-tenerife-volcano-will-erupt-after-100-earthquakes-are-recorded-1584962

    Volcanologists fear infamous Tenerife volcano will erupt after 100 earthquakes are recorded

    Experts warning pattern of earthquakes across the south-west of the Island could cause Mount Teide to erupt.

    A swell of seismic activity on Tenerife could indicate a long-dormant volcano on the holiday island could be about to blow, with volcanologists warning nearly 100 mini-tremors could signify an upcoming eruption.

    Mount Teide, a 3km-high volcano in the south of Tenerife, last erupted in 1909, with an earlier eruption in the 18th Century destroying the town and principal port of Garachico, as well as several smaller villages.

    Now volcanic experts are warning that a pattern of almost imperceptible earthquakes across the south-west of the island could cause Mount Teide to erupt once again.

    "We are registering an important seismic rally on the island of Tenerife," Involcan, The Volcanology Institute of the Canary Islands said in a statement.

    "In principle, these earthquakes are very low magnitude, consistent with those that occur in active volcanoes.

    "The number of earthquakes is provisional pending the analysis of the signals more closely, but we can qualify this activity as a seismic swarm whose pattern is an alignment with prevailing direction north-east to south-west ".

    Other worrying indicators include an "abnormal" amount of carbon dioxide coming from the volcano and surrounding areas as the earthquakes take place some 13km underground.

    Aroa Gonzales, a reservations manager for Ritz Carlton in Tenerife which is near where the seismic activity is taking place, told IBTimes UK the earthquakes were too small to be felt but news of the possible eruption had swept across the island.

    "The small earthquakes are very low ... I wouldn't say that because of these we are expecting a volcanic eruption. It is very, very, small activity and we are not preoccupied by it," she said.

    Gonzales added that the micro earthquakes were not going to be a concern into the future and there had been no changes to reservations at the hotel, particularly over Christmas. which was a busy period.

    "For Christmas we are almost fully booked. It is high season for us and our reservations numbers are very good," she explained.

    I'm still over here until Monday and although some panic was Raised by that rubbish newspaper s*n there has been no stress here. What was weird was that the earth tremors were not in teide itself.  They were above adeje which is significantly lower down so it could be brewing from low down. 

    General Volcanic Activity Thread!

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    Part of me wants it to erupt so my stay abroad can me lengthened.  On a more scary note is the amount of tremors that have hit here (tenerife)  last few days.  I haven't felt any in Las Americas.  Could be that teide is preparing herself for an eruption too.  Hopefully nothing major.  What would be the affects on this volcano erupting?? 

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