marksiwnc
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Posts posted by marksiwnc
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Just now, phil nw. said:
Relax guys tonights day 5 fax
It's on track.The broad pattern for next week is for cold.
The next frame on the fax would be full of amazing potential I think with all the fronts and trophs waiting in line. #waitforit
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So the ecm is flattening things too quickly then!??
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As most experienced metrologists have said. Models will play about with different scenarios for a while until the cold arrives. It's a case of wait and see. Hopefully by sat,Sunday we will have a better look. I think it will get cold mid to late next week. Brief warm up and then deeper cold.
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2 minutes ago, Catacol said:
Hehe - GP vs Glosea5. A great way to start the New Year. Here's hoping human interpretation outplays the computer says no....
HNY one and all.
What has GP been predicting??? Sorry but I'm a novice
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Ever thankfull for having Ian around Hopefully there will be a spell of easterly winds soon as the amount of rain that has fallen for us here in nw Wales and Northern England and Southern Scotland then a change of wind direction would be beneficial for us to have some shelter. Can't you tweak the weather patterns please Ian lol
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Liam dutton just tweeted cold and drier in new year. #hopeforsnow
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All roads closed in nw Wales. Very severe weather. There is no linking Road from Gwynedd Anglesey and Llandudno.
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Thoughts are with the ones affected by flooding. Shockingly heavy rain for hours here in nw Wales. Weather radar shows this continuously falling in same areas 46 mm already today here
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Just now, fergieweather said:
Of course not. That's why it's revised every day. And BBQ summer debacle is irrelevant: that was a PR mess epitomising poor communication of *probabilistic* forecasting. For exactly that reason, UKMO contingency planners document is NOT badged as a 'seasonal forecast'...albeit some transpose it as being so.
Presently, GloSea5 and EC Monthly remain in (broadly) good agreement out to later January, i.e. with core of +ve MSLP anomaly building to SW of UK by mid-Jan (GloSea5 has leaned to this outcome for many successive runs & EC Monthly has now supported it). Net result becomes more a mean NW flow by later Jan, as cited in UKMO web forecast. Meanwhile, recent GFS output (easterly etc) has very scant EC support in ENS/clusters as of 00z last night, but it's clearly plausible, because the potential is so obviously there out east (albeit *right now* it's there as a minority solution...but that doesn't wholly discount it).
Nonetheless, ongoing GloSea5 and now other nearer-term NWP suites signalling (perhaps marked) weakening of stratospheric PV from early Jan is more the key to how this ultimately unfolds if we adopt a longer-term view (rather than chasing every wildly-oscillating GFS run, a characteristic recently endemic in that suite), and how this may resolve our fortunes into the 2nd half of winter.
Just a quick question Ian. There seems to be very cold uppers consistently to our West / north West. Would this not bring cold weather to the UK??
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Nice to have fergieweather back in to give a more reasonable clarity on how the met office see things. #hopeforcoldandsnow
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Well what is good to think about is that the met office computer has put the overall temp between Dec,Jan and Feb to be on the cold side so I'm going to look forward to the following months to balance from this month should be exciting.
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Surely most of these models are wrong and something is up with global models. What seems to be the problem?? Could it be the connection between El nino and global sea temperatures that are not like anything that has been in the past??
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Just now, Singularity said:
Well, one good thing about the 18z is that it's a lot more like I've been looking out for in terms of the El Nino background working in conjunction with the SAI feedback process.
The other main positive is that shift south in the weekend rains, the large totals falling across areas which have had near or even below average rainfall over the past 2-3 months.
But it seems to be over my area in nw Wales and we have had copious amounts of rain and flooding too with more to come by the looks of it
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Just now, Hocus Pocus said:
Southern Oscillation Index, apparently it's dropped like a stone over the last few days and this will impact the NH over the coming weeks.
What COULD be the implications on us in the distant future??
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What has been shocking is that the met office failed to provide a red weather warning for us in nw Wales even tho 179mm has fallen in the area! Surely there should have been a amber or even red warning for that. Hundreds of roads are closed in my area
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http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IUNITEDK257
Local weather station with gusts of 100kmph
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not interested! nothing to do with Midlands weather, there is a worldwide weather section
I was being helpful as they were talking about a snowstorm in Denmark. And the link is already in snow in Northern hemisphere forum. Did I tag any of your comments??
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Pity he doesnt like snow, ie hes used to digging out road and car..... I meanwhile love it....
Web Cam in Denmark
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I'm still a big believer in new moon new weather theory. And I believe that the weather after 11)12(15 will turn cold and stormy. Especially stormy towards Christmas although with most of the snow over high ground.
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Aberdaron here in Gwynedd where we get loads of storms.. As I'm writing this the wind is blowing a gale... Wow
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That's a considerable split from 100mb through to 7mb with the vortex stretched at 5mb.
NH_HGT_10mb_288.gifNH_HGT_30mb_288.jpgPressure on the vortex from every possible blocking pre-cursor !
EPO has gone beyond -5SD
gfs_epo_bias.pnggfsnh-0-288.pnggfsnh-15-300.pngAn awesome model roller coaster just now, and the benefit of a couple of cold incursions, Nino re-engaging and a couple of cold shots to keep things interesting elsewhere.
What do you think will happen if this happens??
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Current Cold Spell: snow where, snow when - how much?
in Spring Weather Discussion
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Whats this. No snow for Ireland and Wales??? Surely after Scotland northern Ireland and North and west Wales should see quite a bit of snow??? I maybe wrong