[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

53 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Mean precip for Wednesday is way north - could be some good swings on that front ahead - P28 would be nice for the midlands south ️

This has piqued my interest 

I was fully expecting it to go the other way tonight and even miss the south coast altogether. Still in the game and something to chase.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

At the very least it's been fun on here in the past couple of weeks (for me anyway) - Just the thought of potential heavy snow makes this depressing month a bit more exciting, even if it's all a fugazi



Kinda like being in the casino and being up for a few hours but ultimately coming away empty-handed. Doesn't mean those few hours of delusion weren't fun  

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Guys just forget about the frontall snowfall that ship looks to have sailed!!we gota he focusing on swirly bands of snow and showers now!!!ukmo look very very cold out to 144 hours and so does gfs!!

Nah I'm chasing that bad boy until the very end. Not interested in swirly bands or snow showers, they never come to anything for some of us. 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

28 minutes ago, Hoghtonwhite said:

This has been happening for years. I can't actually think when the last battleground dumping of snow came into the UK from the southwest. 

Would love to know the reasons why these systems always end up further south than originally forecast.

I've wondered this for a long time and would also like to know the reason. At one point, some of the models had this low pressure system hitting Northern England. In future we need to hope one of these low pressure systems from the SW is forecast to hit the Highlands. Then maybe it will hit the south coast of England.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

With the colder temps filtering further south on this run... I'm wondering if this will have any impact on the midweek low? i.e. Does it increase the likelihood of the low heading into France, or does it make no difference?

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

15 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Very disappointing those in the South and towards midlands are missing out on the battleground set up for mid-week next week.

dont get many chances for a big dumping and its heading in to France it seems now  

I still think there's enough time for the low to adjust north. If it's showing the same thing on Sunday, then yeah... the writing's probably on the wall. The people who talk about shower feature's popping up of nowhere are usually in favourable locations. Some of us only do well from frontal snow so I fully understand your disappointment.

With a half glass full perspective, locking in deep cold isn't a bad second option. Hopefully we get one or two more channel low's further down the line. One of these days it's gonna hit just right.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

If the ECM / UKMO / Met Office were all looking poor, but the GFS was showing nirvana, many on here would happily dismiss the GFS. So why wont you do the same when it's the other way around?

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

GFS12z is an absolute snorker

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

37 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ICON upgrade on snow shower risk for today/tonight. This model tends to struggle with shower development beyond very short range.

 

First time I've seen the ppn reach as far as the West Country / South Wales. Fully expecting the showers to fizzle out before then but maybe not 

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

43 minutes ago, Notty said:

Long range upgrade

 

I really, really like this update. Quite often they sit on the fence and cover all bases. This seems more assured than usual.

Lets hope the same kind of language is used in the medium range update in a week or two 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

I know it's been said many times before, but given the fact that lows historically end up further south... why not just assume the same thing will happen again? Would it not be a safe bet to assume the low on Sunday/Monday will be 50-100 miles further south than what the models are currently showing?

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

A risk of areas of rain and snow spreading from the South later next week folks...so we have perhaps a Battleground scenario shaping up in the days ahead...High risk high reward scenario.. perhaps an element of 2017 regarding this! And let's not forget cold air can quickly become very stubborn.

Fun and games could be about to begin!

Not long now

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Going by some of the graphics on this page, it looks like the Wednesday low stalls during the afternoon / evening. Is the M4 corridor the sweet spot for a change? Am I seeing that correctly?

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

The GFS 06Z take on snow cover by tomorrow morning:

 

Would snow cover tomorrow, help with snow chances for the rest of the week? With it being fairly marginal, could the cold ground make the difference?

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

As a southerner, I was genuinely hoping to see the low trending northwards this evening (wish granted) - This is around the time period where the low looks primed for the south, and then slowly sinks towards France as we get closer to reality. It would be much worse if it corrected south tonight IMO.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

History tends to favour us for the snow sweet spots, although I think it may be more impactful further south on this occasion.

 

I can confirm that there is truth to this. There have been countless events where we've just missed out on snow (IMBY) and 50 miles north have been buried. The M4 snow boundary is real!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

I know these low res snow charts aren't to be taken literally and will change from run-to-run, but something to keep an eye on at least. I personally considered the xmas period to be a write off for our area, so even a chance of snow on boxing day is a bonus. 

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

I really hate how much weather affects my mood  I know beggars can't be choosers in the UK... but I would've loved it if the cold spell we just had, happened two weeks later instead.

Could really do with some upgrades in the medium-long term. Seems like there's a little bit of hope at least. I think most of us coldies would sacrifice a week of this mild dross if there was something to look forward to after christmas.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Just now, Bristle Si said:

The trend may be our friend.

I know it's only my phone app but it's suddenly come up with a "light snow" warning for SG, forlater tonight. Hmm...

Same! I keep refreshing the MetO website in hope that they extend the warning area for snow. It's definitely further north than forecast so lets see

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

The very top band of the PPN looks like the perfect angle for a Bristol Channel streamer  Wishful thinking I'm sure.. but that's the fun part. Surprise snow is the best snow.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Is the hope of that low on Tues / Weds being further north, all but over now?

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Is the ECM the only model to show frontal snow in the south next week? Saw some glorious charts in the MOD thread this morning, but I'm guessing people think this scenario is unlikely as cold & dry seems to be the tone.

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

"Get the cold in the first, and the snow will follow"

With 10-14 days of cold / very cold weather coming up, let's see if this old adage proves to be true or not. If most of the country is snowless over the next couple of weeks, then we collectively should dispel it as myth 

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

1 minute ago, WINTRY WALES said:

What’s about the perfect northward line of a channel low where it get north enough to dump snow for  good mount of people but not too far so it doesn’t Draw milder air in and the country stays cold after it’s passed??? Is there such a thing?

I was wondering this myself because this scenario wasn't talked about in the MetO 10 day video. He said there was a 30% chance of the low going through the spine of the UK, and a 70% chance of it heading into N France (only affecting South coasts) - I was also left thinking if there's a middle ground scenario like you suggested in your comment.