MidnightSnow

It's pretty mad that the track of the low could be anywhere between the English Channel and the Mediterranean at +96 hours. Would be good to know even just a ballpark percentage of each outcome

Already know that's koldweather lol. Good stuff though, positive signs indeed.

All I hope for is that we're still within a decent chance come Sunday/Monday. I'm not overly fussed about the ECM tonight because you know this is gonna chop and change every day. (Although I can't lie I will be buzzing too ) Funny how there was talk a few days ago about how the SW is a "Boom or bust" region. Now we're looking at a possible channel low which could be the big one. Might have to log off for a solid week if that low goes into France. Doubt we'll get a better chance for significant snow all winter. PLEEEAASSSEEE

Thanks for sharing this. I guess the GFSp is the minority he's talking about: Come on let this happen. We deserve to hit the jackpot down here.

Mental that people trust individual runs over the Met Office. Is it an ego thing?

Clear to see how everyone's expectations vary massively reading through this thread this morning. I'm pretty sure many in the South would bank what's showing for Tues/Weds regardless of what happens after.

Is this your keyboard? I'm only messing, I couldn't resist

Word porn right there. Nice to see these kinda charts in the semi-reliable time frame. Some continuity now wouldn't go amiss.

I found out in March 2018 that dry powder snow is overrated... can't even make a snowball. Not complaining though, that month was epic.

I know this is a long shot but I'm bored: Does anyone in the West Country remember a very good rain to snow event in 2005/2006? (There's a possibility it could've been the winter before... although I'm pretty sure I was in my last year in college.) I remember it rained heavily all morning and then turned to snow early in the afternoon. The reason why it sticks out in my mind because they were the biggest flakes I'd ever seen. We must've got 3-4 inches in less than a couple hours. I know that doesn't narrow it down very much... but thought there's a chance somebody knows what I'm talking about. Would be cool to see the charts that produced that snow.

That winter has a lot of potential.

Let's go again!

Happy for the lucky few who had some snow today. For the rest of us... as long as the MetO keep maintaining this theme of colder conditions in February, I'm remaining optimistic personally: "As we head through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds. This will bring an increased risk of snow to all areas and more widespread frosts." Anyone who checks the Met Office 6-30 day forecasts regularly will know that's detailed by their standards. They're usually vague / undescriptive and cover all bases. Chins up, something is around the corner

I think we need to accept the fact that we're going to be snowed in for many weeks. Being cautious is a mugs game.

Yup being trolled by Henry again. Give me a channel low so we don't have to worry about those pesky Welsh mountains.

The second part of Marco Petagna's tweet in case anybody didn't see it. "2/2 All might not be lost though as models are widely in favour of shifting the tropical #rain bearing #MJO phenomenon firmly into phase 6 or 7 in the next couple of weeks...which ties in nicely with our UKMO forecast of #cold or v cold #weather developing end Jan into Feb"

Completely agree, February 2019 was epic. Possibly the snowiest month of my lifetime.

Finally sounds like the MetO are on board with regards to snow chances tomorrow morning / afternoon. Before it was more of a rain event but looks like some of us will see our first flakes tomorrow "Showers turning to sleet and snow even to low levels"

That was the smallest roller coaster I've been on in this forum lol.

Defo one of the best long term MetO updates I've read. At least there's still that glimmer of hope of something special.

Am I right in saying it will be more of a westerly wind direction compared to the early hours? Maybe don't have to worry about Henry the hoover on the Welsh mountains.

If you've just logged on, I recommend listening to this while reading the last few pages. (Trust me)

NE USA on the receiving end of the white stuff.