Danielvn

Because it says what they want to hear. i sometimes wonder whether these people like having cold and snowy weather or cold and snowy model output.

I didn’t realise that the charts had already verified...

How is it a joke? The weather does what the weather does and to have any expectations of it is foolish to say the least. People need to stop being so emotional about this, regardless of how you think or feel the weather will do what the weather does.

No no no, doesn't work like that. X model always struggles with Y conditions therefore it'll be cold and snowy, not 20 degrees and rainy as the models are suggesting.

There should be a crypto currency that you can mine with the tears of cold loving posters on the net weather mod thread.

Nailed on like a Murr sausage!

Even worse are the posts which react to mild posts as if the poster has literally summoned the warmer weather. Ferchrissakes! Nothing posted on here will make a difference to the weather!

As least the rarity of these events means Sydney typically doesn't have too many issues.

I'm aware I'm on a weather forum, but come on! Once you're wrong 10 times you really shouldn't go and make the same mistake again and again and again and again year after year after year. Show some restraint, let it get within +120 or so and then get excited and talk about sausages. Anything before that is just setting yourself up for disappointment.

The thing is I love cold snowy weather too. But the little I know in meteorological terms tells me that it's going to be a relatively rare occurrence and the snowy period in early December is better than we get most years IMBY. Some of the language is puzzling too, "why does x region always get shortchanged when it comes to cold?" and so on. The weather will do what the weather will do regardless of whether you want it to or not. Oh btw mods, I saw your edit on my post and won't use that word in the future

I'm a serial lurker as can be seen by my join date and lack of posts but is it just me or does the MOD thread just seem to be full of people who want to find charts that illustrate cold, as opposed to discussing the model output with a view to making accurate predictions of what the weather is going to be like? When the GFS doesn't do what people want then the ECM is the model to choose and if that doesn't do what people want then it's NAVGEM or something else. The cold rampers always seem to be looking to find a way to twist things to suit their end goal. There's also the desperate move of showing how in X year we went from conditions similar to where we are now to snowpocalypse conditions as if this is somehow a worthwhile way of making predictions. The weather does what it does and doesn't care a bit for what you want, need or what you feel you 'deserve'. I'm probably jaffa cakesing on someone's bonfire here, but how many times over the years has something been 'nailed on' and then just not happened or been watered down at best? It comes across as chart chasing rather than a genuine interest in the weather that actually happens outside your window.

People keep saying it because they think that repeating it makes it more likely. Sadly this is why I have just stopped reading the model thread altogether

I do love how someone just made this torpedo thing up as a bit of a hopecast and suddenly it's a thing that people are waiting for.

This place should have a reputation system based on the accuracy of fore/hopecasts rather than whether you like what someone is making up, would be much better. Sure, there was cross model agreement, but the real cold never got within a reliable range and that's why we are where we are.

How dare he influence the weather! Hope you've complained to your local MP

Not to be funny, but that's what happened, complaining about it isn't going to make it better? Also, this isn't really model discussion?

Fair points......

The problem is that when scientists make stupid claims that turn out to be wrong, it convinces the average joe on the street and gives people like him ammunition. The sad thing is that with all their science, they've been spectacularly wrong. If only they were sensible and honest about their predictions then perhaps people would be more willing to buy into climate change. Good science requires you to make predictions on a long term basis on a number of occasions and be correct most of the time, the problem is that they appear to devise a model that explains what happened in the past, use it to make predictions and end up wrong. If I was a scientist with a model I believed in, I'd be sitting in a corner making my predictions in private, seeing if they come true and after a few years of success, then I'd go public!

and it should also be pointed out that people looking at averages in terms of snow are doomed to disappointment. It only takes a large event like 2009/10 or 2010/2011 to skew the stats. Lets say we've got 60 years of records and they say that on average there's 1 day of snow laying per year. That could be 4 years of having 15 days of snow laying, 6 days of 10 days of snow laying or 1 year where there were 60 days of snow laying on the ground. I've only lived in the UK since June 2006 and the summer which seemed to last up till the start of December, but what is quite obvious to me is that there is nothing such as an average winter and certainly not in my area. We've had a couple of snowpocalypse events, but far more winters where we've had nothing more than a bit of sleet. IMHO last years winter was the least wintry I can remember as Snowdonia never seemed to have any snow cover, we only had 1 very soft frost and I only saw snow falling once on high ground on my way to work. P.S the weather doesn't care what you want or would rather have or what you deserve or what you should have or what is "normal" so stop whining and accept that what happens will happen and leave it there.

People have short memories. I had 1 frost.... yes.... 1 frost last winter. This winter I must have had close to 10 or maybe even a dozen frosts which is OK. Have had snow laying for 1 or 2 days. Now obviously that's IMBY, but people need to realise that just because they haven't seen a flake of snow, it doesn't mean that loads of others haven't seen snow. This is better than last years weather IMHO as there were dangerous winds numerous times last year as well as flooding. Surely dry and cool is better than winder, wet and mild?

Goes on a weather forum, talks about hail in winter

Agree on that, can't believe some people are saying that this year is worse than last year, last year was just wind rain and mild, rinse and repeat over and over and over again. I think we had one frost last winter.....

I'm not saying it's 10 feet of snow, but it's something. I live near Prestatyn and we had a lot less here. Went over the woodhead pass to Sheffield yesterday and it was gorgeous.

For anyone in North Wales too lazy to get in their car and drive....... http://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/watch-stunning-footage-north-wales-8474415

The gamblers fallacy, just because we haven't had a stupidly snowy winter recently doesn't make it more likely now. Carl, have you considered jumping in your car? Drive up to the Denbigh moors and I guarantee you will find lying snow, obviously if you'd gone there a day or two you'd have had more, but there was snow right near you, you just didn't make the effort. IMBY at its best......