seaside 60
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Posts posted by seaside 60
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Are many of us going to loose CAT 1 almost straight away this thurs or sat.
By the way what and who is proof of settling snow in an area and is it a pic with snow that lasts for 5 mins or something.
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24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Oh right, didn't think there was a cut off date for category 1.
If you look further up on this page he mentions it there (19 hrs ago) above one of your posts.
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20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
I was thinking of going for the 8th December 2020 before but changed my mind and went March instead!!
Tom did say 30th April cut off date otherwise I was going for next year.
Trouble is a dusting is totally possible for the next 2 months, esp up on a hill early hours back edge front type, so really impossible to guess lol..
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CAT 1 NONE
CAT2 25TH MARCH FRANCIS ROCKALL 954MB
CAT 3 25TH APRIL -1C
CAT 4 10TH APRIL
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You would have had me as well but my computer developed a hard drive fault and had to be repaired over the weekend before I could have entered.
Mind you would have been total guesswork.
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Can I forward another comp to run along side it.
How many people profess to be basing their guesses on a scientific basis or just picking dates at random.
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Miles out so far the last two months, so pretty poor results.
5.7 c
77 mm
Please..
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Really start noticing the extra 20 mins of daylight now, esp when you out in the afternoon and it is a clear day.
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3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:
By the 8th, all of these Januaries were running warmer than 7.0 after eight days ...
1992 __ 8.8
1916 __ 8.7
2013 __ 8.0
2007 __ 7.9
1950 __ 7.8
1932, 1975, 1983 __ 7.7
1921 __ 7.6
1855 __ 7.5
1873, 2005 __ 7.4
1902, 1957, 1999 __ 7.3
1869, 1937, 1976, 2012 __ 7.2
1782, 2014 __ 7.1
1948, 1989 __ 7.0
__________________________
That's a total of 23 out of 248 in the daily data period.
Whats interesting on that chart is 2013.
The year it seemed to have snow on the ground here for ages late winter early spring, so there is still hope.
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1 hour ago, Don said:
Is that the same mega warm temps as has been forecast for over the last week, yes it got to 16c in Scotland but generally its been no higher than 8c down here and def not feeling mild.
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Just when you think its going to be a dryer month the models start throwing out wetter charts for the next 2 weeks.
Was convinced down here was going to be high pressure dominated for most of the month.
Think I might be to low now on the precip side of things.
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On 29/12/2019 at 22:45, damianslaw said:
Yes your right, Decembers in the 70s and 80s were often mild, with the cold coming in Jan and Feb, this then reversed in the 90s and 00s to an extent.
Rather annoyingly the Novembers of the 10s have delivered some quite cold weather at times, this year included, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017 all brought some decent cold frosty weather, pity these synoptics couldn't spill over for sufficient length of time in December, they did in 2012 mind, but then a flip to very mild, this year brought a cold start but these quickly left us, 2016 to an extent as well.
December is traditionally when we see the atlantic at its most lively, and cold is much more harder to sustain then in Jan, and more so Feb through until May.
Dont you think thats because the PV is forming later every year now allowing for more of a meridianal flow, till the switch flips when the Arctic properly gets cold start of December.
Its given us down here far more frosts early in the autumn than I can ever remember and I am right next to the sea which early season is warm and stops frosts normally.-
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The driest month for a while overall one thinks esp for most of the southern half.
How far over us will the high get, how much cooler air will form with little winds.
Its been far cooler here than what was suggested for this last weekend and after.Lets go for 4.6c
and 37mm.
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18 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:
EWP update, 78 mm to the 18th, and about 7-10 mm likely to be added for the 19th, then GFS ten-day estimate is 25 mm (wetter in south, but that's about the average for the grid). That takes us to mid-day 30th and a wet frontal system moves through by the 31st, adding 10 mm for that brings us to around 120 mm. The provisional scoring table (based on 111.1 mm) is staying relevant so no update on that. The CET probably won't move much in either direction to end of month, after corrections may be closer to 5.5 than 6.0.
All it has seemed to do down here is rain every day, I cant see how its not higher totals.
We are not used to it at all here, not sure how people cope with the incessant rain that other places round the country have lol.. -
16 hours ago, s4lancia said:
In the years I've been 'micro monitoring' the weather before going off to the Alps over Christmas, this year has been, by far, the trickiest to get a firm handle on!
I will be in Les Gets, NW Alps and that I have to say I am very pleased that the GFS / GEFS looks to have nailed it earlier than the Euros. Some of those ECM charts a week back for this weekend were rather unpalletable to put it politely!
(ps, I don't know why I typed '1600M' for where I'm staying, more like 1300M unfortunately!)
Anyway, I am feeling reasonably confident for the following now...
A solid dumping over the next 48 hours+. Just about OK at my resort level (for most of the time at least). There's Avoriaz if not anyway.
Thereafter possibly turning back into rain for a further 12 hours(ish) to follow on early next week. Shame, but as long as it doesn't hammer down for a couple of days the snow (that hopefully fell beforehand) should hold up reasonably well.
Thereafter looks to be drying up. A bit of a warm up looks likely over Xmas itself, and sunny(ish) / with very little PPN. Although This could change should the ridging high edge further west and could then keep things cooler and a tad more unsettled. Nothing severe, just seasonable.
And if it does (OK not the formhorse on the charts as a whole, but IMO is quite possible given current synoptics), I wouldn't be surpsised to see it turning a lot colder and further snowfall for the following weekend when we are leaving (hopefully with an amazing week of skiing under our belts! )
Les Gets is a lovely resort if a little low at times esp the other valley, not sure but the village may only be 1150m.
The Mont Cherie is used to be quite with some lovely easy off piste through the trees.
We been there several times, a fair while ago now.
You do have the back up of Avoraiz but used to be a queuers paradise lol.
No doubt it has changed a lot since we went.
You sound like a good skier, think you have been several times, there used to be some lovely totally off piste to the right of the highest ski lift, if I remember correctly.Have a lovely time there.
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SO many people, so many decent temps taken with 5 plus people. Not sure it will be far enough from the average to gamble low or high.
Left page open and totally forget to enter on time again.4.4c
88mm
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22 hours ago, Weather-history said:
I am struggling to recall a really windy day this autumn around here, Accuweather's autumn forecast, wind wise, for the British Isles has been a total bust.
Lets face it all the Autumn forecasts have been a bust overall.
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I cant believe how much snow has fallen in the Alps, even down into the valleys, in fact more than some winters, also up in Scandi land, up to 10c below average for the first 10 days of Nov.
In Katsberg as example still forecasting another meter of snow in the next few days.
sods law says by the start of Dec to Xmas it will have all gone, but compared to previous years, wow.
Also makes a mockery of the Seasonal models that said NW Europe would be a high % above average.
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6.9c
96mm
Thank you.
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12 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:
Great to see the new thread starting up as we begin to look forward to the coming season.
Kitzbühel, Austria off to an early start and keeping up its record of being the first non-glacier resort in the Alps to open:
"Kitzbühel will begin the winter season this weekend, Saturday 19th and Sunday 20th October and will be the first non-glacier ski area in the Alps to open for the 2019/20 season."
However this was only possible thanks to ‘snow farming' as they had stored snow from last winter over the summer in huge piles under cover to protect it from melting. It's only one run and two lifts open, but they hope to keep these open for skiing every day now
I think this is a way forward esp as often there is loads of snow falling after the seasons shut in the Alps.
Even if it just does a few runs in most resorts, it starts to bring in an income and skiers can get some skiing in. Esp as before the 1st/2nd week of Dec its only locals ish that ski.
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On 17/10/2019 at 20:04, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
*Winter 2019/2020* Statistical winter outlook – Solar cycle and ENSO! – Severe Weather Europe
WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EUTwo weeks ago, we wrote about the latest long range model forecasts, and what they show for the upcoming winter 2019/2020. While we wait for the latest October model updates, we will take a more statistical...
Both these articles are very good reading for the enthusiast.
Its written very well with no headliners and fanfare as can be seen, I found it very educational and people that just look and think winters over should actually read this and they will learn a lot about how the long range forecasts work and their variants.-
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5 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
I think they are almost similar for the month (could be wrong) because i think the 71-00 average was cooler than 61-90.
There were couple of months where this incessant warming of the averages hasnt affected them.
October is one of them, there must be some sort of reason why it hasnt.
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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:
11.7c to be the 15th
0.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c below the 81 to 10 average
__________________________________Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st
Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd
Thats interesting to note there is almost no difference between the 61-90 and 81 to 10 averages on this date.
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48 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Because this year, there looks to be a quick coupling of the strat and trop- grim unless we see a SSW. Unfortunately, these models are obviously not seeing any stratospheric disturbances to break the zonal regime.
It also makes sense when you realise the wQBO will be being flushed down through the bottom layers of the stratosphere throughout winter.
The last 2 GLOSEA updates have been pretty identical in their placements of the major pressure deviations so I do think we should prepare for a mild winter. As things stand, the model offers minimal prospect of even topplers.
So with all the outside signs of prospective cooler weather like all the sea ice loss etc, solar min, you seem very certain of agreeing with the models.
In no way am I disagreeing with you and it may well be right, but do you not think you are reading into it as gospel.I see you have answered that already, sorry.
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NW Weather Predicting Competition
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Silly point how can the south east go so far to the west and north west, surely the south east cant be any further west than London.
Anyways apart from that point it must surely snow somewhere "even in the SOUTH EAST south east" lol over the next few days.