seaside 60
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Posts posted by seaside 60
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Yes all common sense and very reasonable. However it does appear that another wave of warming will be needed (at least) for a Major SSW (though that could be a recurring statement come March). The current warming, like November's could pass the UK by. So we have to try to look for the end of Jan for potential changes, we can't just assume it will change, the Canadian PV is known as "the Winter killer" for a reason.
The MJO just does not want to progress into an amplified cycle. The CFS keeps us in the unsettled regime and then hints at another circle of death just before it gets interesting:
So when it does this we are in something similar to the composite:
JanENMJOphase6gt1500mb.gifThis ties in with the consistent output from CFS over the last two weeks for Jan:
cfs-2-1-2015 (1).pngFeb is now looking less likely of anything blocked:
cfsnh-2-2-2015.pngIt is now March and April that a more blocked signal is detected in the CFS. So of course nothing is set in stone, however the delay in the PV forming due to the disruption in November has meant poor timing with respect to its strengthening. Many thought that this reinvigorating PV would not be a problem as the various warmings' would be enough to kill the PV no matter how much it recovered. At the moment the PV -v- SSW is a long drawn out battle and whilst that takes place we have an awful setup for the Atlantic sector.
So yes the pattern may change later in January, but IMO it is more likely that it won't. No forecasts for Feb yet as a lot of water to go under the bridge before then.
ONly that Feb chart is actually March. ??
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the link you asked for
https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/54858-met-office-temperature-definitions/
Thanks for that...
Simple but usefull.
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The problem with mild weather in winter is thats its normally cloudy damp depressive weather.
We need more of this lovely sunny cold crisp days like today.
In which it makes everyone feel better. :smiliz34: :smiliz34:
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What happened to Ian Brown?
Look out for Buxton Codge on here.
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James Madden is at it again! - An extract taken from the Echo, a Liverpool newspaper.
I am more inclined to go with the forecasts which indicate a winter a little colder than what we have been used to just lately with alternating cold with some snow and mild spells, in fact more like the average winter I grew up with.
I suggest that James examines the records more closely to find out exactly what the winter of '62/63' was really like.
Britain could soon be shivering in a repeat of the 1963 Big Freeze - the worst winter for more than 200 years.
One weather expert has warned Britain will be hit by an Arctic blast which is set to arrive over New Year and hang around for at least a month.
Some areas could be blanketed by up to five feet of snow with daytime temperatures hovering around zero and overnight lows down to a bone-numbing -15C (5F).
Forecaster James Madden believes the white-out will rival the famous winter of 1963 when the sea froze in Kent and a car was driven across the River Thames in Oxford.
He fears a “colossal†area of much colder than average surface water in the Mid Atlantic will affect the Gulf Stream and leave Britain exposed to a prolonged Siberian blast from northerly winds.
James said: “ This is of quite some significance as the Gulf Stream effectively acts as a heat machine for our shores, in particular, during our winter months.
“Without the influence of this vital heat source, we can expect a horrific winter to develop with frequent blizzards/strong winds and extremely cold conditions across many parts of the country.
“During the winter period of 1962/63 the famous big freeze took a hold of the country from around Christmas until the spring of the following year because of a similar situation.
“Several feet of snow fell in parts of southern England, temperatures dropped to below -20C (-4F) in places, and snow remained on the ground for months on end.
“We could be looking at a very similar time-frame and scale of events this time around.
“I don’t like saying this but the factors are there for an extremely cold spell in January which will possibly extend into February."
Is that in the last day or so, or before xmas.
If its today then I suggest all the experts in here go into retirement. lol...
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Just checked the Les Gets web cams and its gone from almost nothing to 40cm valley and 70cm up top.
Not that much difference when we went years ago at xmas time.
I bet the snow is just fantastic and the off piste even better.
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Just seen the report of the snow chaos.
I wonder how much of that mayhem around the Saviove was caused by people not having snow chains on.
Lets face it that amount of snowfall is hardly much above average there.
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Well I am off to Morzine tomorrow with my two brothers and two sisters and familes, half who have travelled from Australia for a big family reunion holiday. NO snow and freezing level 3000m. Gutted. Taken years of planning as well. Ah well It's Christmas and we will make the most of it!
Been over to Morzine when in Les Gets, great area to ski esp with families.
However even if you have to travel to ski, I would much rather be there than here lol..
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Thanks for that, not been for a while body getting past it, plus life with kids slows you down....
I remember one year we went there for xmas and there was very little snow until xmas day.
In fact one run we got to ski before even the piste bashers had a chance to get on it, pure heaven lol..
On the whole Les Gets doesn't do to bad for snow.
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Apparently WSI have tweeted of a significant EuroAsia SSW within the next two weeks, can't post the link sorry on my iPhone at this moment in time.
If this happens what does that potentially mean for us.
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NIce to see Les Gets with snow, at the moment anyway.
Spent several trips skiing there.
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Unfortunately, there needs to be a recognition that if we share at *this tentative juncture* the exact nature of what we have as Ops Centre guidance, certain individuals will inevitably extrapolate/warp/skew it for certain newspapers... and we want to be 100% clear on key issues/likelihood of possible severe weather in public communication. I appreciate & sympathise how this is frustrating for genuine and well-meaning model-watchers, who can fully understand caveats, but we exist in an age where some very silly people repeatedly seek to scare folk through headlines before any high forecast confidence exists.
Its a shame but its so true, in this modern world of journalistic excesses or any thing to sell a newspaper.
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Some mixed messages over the last 48 hours about how Austrian ski resorts are coping with current snow conditions. The ‘good news’ article posted today:
“Since last weekend many ski resorts have opened the lifts and slopes. Although the large amounts of snow are not there yet, many well-known ski resorts have opened the season: Ski Openings took place in almost all provinces at the weekend…â€
I’ve copied the list of resorts open, with their lower/upper depths and number of lifts open, into this chart:
Austrian Resort Update 15Dec14.jpgFull article in Austrian http://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/Skisaion-20142015-ist-eroeffnet/168955033
The ‘bad news’ article on the Sat 13 Dec reveals that in the Vorarlberg region only a few resorts managed to open (mentioning Lech and Damuels).
“Only in a few places (in) Vorarlberg (were) permitted (by) the snow cover to start the ski season this weekend. In all other ski resorts Vorarlberg the plants were provisionally out of service - either too little or no snow, too warm for artificial snowmaking. Meteorologists give Vorarlberg lift operators and tourism earners no hope of rapid change: The foehn windy mountain weather holds.â€
Full article in Austrian http://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/Start-der-Ski-Saison-in-Vorarlberg/168767146
Footnote: Carinthian - nice to see Katschberg in 3rd place with snow depth!
Ahh memories of St Anton mainly, also been to Lech a few times, but my how good is the skiing at St Anton.
Went back after they moved the train station across the valley, all a bit strange.
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Can he not join up with Codge and forecast record breaking warmth.
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A calming,measured post as ever Tamara,although vicissitude is a word which doesn't come up
very often.
Definition of VICISSITUDE1a : the quality or state of being changeable :On another note i'm seeing a lot of long range (+360 hrs) ensemble mean anomaly charts being posted on the forum recently,and thanks to some new tools on Meteociel its now possible to pick an individual ensemble member which is a good match for the somewhat diluted ensemble mean chart so as to give a more detailed idea of the possible outcome.So with that in mind here is the +360 hrs (bias corrected) ensemble mean anomaly chart from the 00z GEFS and the ensemble 14 chart for the same time along side.This is the best match i could find amongst the individual ensemble members,and whilst not perfect,the main features are pretty well matched, with a trough in Eastern USA,a ridge in the Atlantic/Southern Greenland and a trough over Western Euriope.Below is the normal H500 chart from ensemble 14 which would would certainly provide plenty of interest for the end of the month!Obviously trying to pin down any detail at that timescale is a very difficult exercise,but it is interesting trying to find an individual chart that best matches those rather vague ensemble means.Now that I find very interesting, one that takes in the three charts, very imformative.
I am sure it could be used for mild or cold, however something I would like to see every day.
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It doesn't matter if you like cold or mild in the winter.
When you wake up to rain and it still being dark at 8am, its so depressing.
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:yahoo: 
:clapping:
Model Output Discussion; into 2015
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
To clear a couple of matters up.
Could a mod/professional state the official meaning of zonal. My view has always been a constent train of mainly sw winds, mild and wet,
Also to the same qualified people, why do certain members keep alluring to the fact that winter is going the same as last winter, I dont see many records being broken from rainfall etc.
Do we have official records of this winter so far to last year so far, I do feel that would stop a lot of back stabbing on here.
What is being forecast is just guesswork, it hasn't happened yet....