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seaside 60

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Posts posted by seaside 60

    Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    That first comment is rather unfair on the professional forecasters. All are trained in much the same way as in the 1960's but with an emphasis on how to use that training to interpret computer output.

    Using what have become known as teleconnections is a part of that for forecasts beyond 6-10 days. The MJO is one such feature but care is needed using it as with any model output and it has to be used along with every other available output. A trained forecaster then assesses the most likely outcome, this takes years of experience. So care need to be taken in judging forecast outputs between a professional and an amateur, good as some are. As an ex forecaster I would say that forecasting has improved in just about every time scale. In the 60's there were no computers and basic meteorology was used to forecast. The complexities of weather forecasting are so huge than no human can even attempt without a computer anything beyond about 3 days. Computers are enabling more and more accurate forecasts to be issued for 3-10 days ahead with increasing but SLOW improvements out a bit beyond that. it depends how much detail you expect at time scales beyond about 3-7 days? Even closer trying to predict rainfall amounts, when, where, still causes problems even at 12-24 hours. Add in will it snow with a further 7 or 8 variables and that is down to less than that.

    Hope that helps explain  some of the problems so don't be too hard on forecasters, professional or amateur.

    Thanks for your reply John,

    Expanding a bit on the "forecasters of those days", 

    I might be wrong but in times gone by you were a meteorologist who became a TV weather presenter.

    While there are the same today I feel that many of today's presenters are just that, they present the weather, rather then being a meteorologist.

    Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The MJO can be a useful forecasting tool when it is in a high amplitude as it is at the moment.

     

    Cohen's blog posted further up the page is well worth a read as it explains  the large changes underway across the Northern hemisphere,which probably accounts for the volatility of the model output.

    Thanks for the reply.

    Playing devils advocate here.

    Dont you think that the models seem to have been very inconsistent in recent times.

    Also do you think there is possibly  to much info available with ridiculous future timescales being forecasted.

    When in fact it is more or less only a less than 50% chance of them being right even with a 10 day or less timescale.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Worth noting that today's updates from GFS and ECM both have the MJO heading into phase 8,with the ECM then taking it into phase 1.

     

    GFS..attachicon.gifNCPE_phase_21m_small.gif  ECM..attachicon.gifECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

    Didn't I read on here earlier this week not to take any notice of these, due to major westerlies somewhere, that has produced an inflated reaction.

    Having seen this quoted all this winter, most of it never came true.

    Surely its all model based and if anything to go by the state of the model runs at the moment ( and the last few months) I think we should go back to the1960's style weather forecasting......

    It cant be any worse.

    Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Is it just me or do the models seem to have been very disorganized for  say the 5-10 day period.

    Its always highlighted more when you have 500 people plus hanging on every model run.

    But when you only have a few it gets missed.

    They seen to be coming out with several different ideas.

    Again today the GFS and ECM are totally different around the 8 day mark.

    We have had mentioned very warm such as 18c to fresh easterlies at 5c and possibly sleet.

    Also much has been mentioned that pressure will be much higher than average to Atlantic taking over esp the more north you are.

    Reading Frosties regular run down, its amazing in just a few days how different his run down analysis  is.

    The only thing we haven't had is a raging south westerly.

    Is there a particular driving force that is causing this more so at the moment.

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I like snow and ice in deep winter, but once it reaches March I start to look for warmer weather and the first signs of Spring. I know wintry weather can happen in March/April but it feels out of place and the warmer sun means it's (generally) less of an event.

     

    Meteorologically-speaking, winter ends tomorrow - meaningless in terms of Mother Nature of course, but it's a great psychological milestone. :D

    Very much agree, once March comes along I dont want to feel the icy wind, you start to think of lovely spring warmth.

    Much as I love the snow, thats for winter months ending in Feb.

    • Like 3

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    ...possibly as early as Friday for e.g. Cotswolds (and Wales more surely, e.g. Brecon Beacons); possibly across to Chilterns....BUT not phasing preferentially with diurnal cycle; depth temps high anyway so settling very temporary; WBFL up at circa 600m and moreover, a rear-edge gig so PPN rates/amounts falling as the colder air tucks-in while the PPN envelope departs E. So, bar a few upland locations, not expected to be anything other than a passing note of interest.

    Text in bold, pretty much sums up this winter overall.

    Lets hope the models carry on showing some calmer options, esp as march starts, time to feel springlike.

    Not to early to hot otherwise the GW brigade will start appearing in the tabloids.

    • Like 3

    Southeast England & East Anglia - Weather Chat >> 1st Feb Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Is It true the highest spring tides in decades is due to occur approx mid to late February bad news for those living adjacent to east coast coinciding with gales - if the ECM 00z is correct. I hope to god it doesn't transpire.

    attachicon.gifimage.jpg

    They are just the normal big spring tides you get at this time of the year.

    Peaking at 6.3m at Southend on 20/22nd Feb.

    Not sure where you get the biggest tides in decades from.

    To be honest I dont think it matters what the height of the tide is, if you get that deep low in the right place in the North Sea, its brown pants for many.

    For the south and west coasts I am not informed, apart from the windier it is the worse it is..

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