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seaside 60

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Posts posted by seaside 60

    Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I noticed the Gfs 00z showed snow on high ground in Scotland on the 14th, the 6z doesn't but it still shows unseasonably cold Northerly winds with -5 T850 hPA flooding south into northern scotland. What the hell happened to the summery charts..lol

    The same as all those lovely cold charts you posted in the winter, lol...

    To be honest I got the impression that late spring and early summer was always going to be average to below average, so these cool trends in the models dont surprise me at all. :)

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Looking quite difficult to call whether we will manage to establish a more settled regime or if the jet will continue to keep us close to the shallow upper trough on an axis nw/se into Eastern Europe. Recent experience would tend towards the answer that we will see a alternating weather type where the Azores ridge pushes ne for a short while followed by a return south of the jet with associated troughing.

    the gfs 00z showing the probable best case scenario post day 6/7 and the ECM 00z the worst. one will be closer to what transpires.

    Seeing as we have had the Azores high in its place all winter pretty much.

    Is this something that could persist for a long while yet.

    Often said by many forecasters that a strong azores high gives us our good summers and if missing early spring its often looked for for signs of summer.

    Personally I prefer the Scandi summer high.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I see we have the same pie in the sky forecasts being produced.

    Yesterday being a prime example.

    Frosty gave run down of the 00hrs and showed a chart for 10th may, large heap of pretty pink snow based mainly over north east and rain else where.

    Then on the 12 hrs he showed some lovely temps charts with temps topping 22c over south/south east, oh and the snow fields had now 18c.

    With huge numbers in the winter on here that would have been mayhem, however it just goes to show the models just dont produce eye candy in the heart of dec to feb.......

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Thanks.

    I am not saying it wont feel cold up north, but I also dont think many realise how cold it has been down here in the south east and east.

     

    One question I would like to ask the experts.

    It seems to me that this winter, there has been a larger than normal tendency for models to produce outcomes that always get watered down nearer the time, not the famous easterly here today gone tomorrow.

    More especially the cold blasts from the northern latitudes which just never really make it, is there a particular reason for this and will it continue.

    Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    What the models show for this part of the world, is today tomorrow the warmest days.

    Sunday onwards  will still be warmer than the last week.

    I realise this is not true for most central south west and northern uk.

    However I must speak up for the east and south east dwellers.

    It will be warmer than last week.

    Apart from the northern part of the UK, I think its another case of over the top models like all winter.

    PLease note I am not saying it wont be feeling cool up north, however I think we need to really back down from literally reading every run as taken and look more overall.

    I feel that I need to get the duvets out for my plants and stick the heating on at 30c reading here for the last few days.

    Sorry not meant as a swipe, however I do think more overall model reading is needed.

    Thank you.

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I have to say that I know you guys are only reporting on what the models churn out.

    However but surely this type of scenario has been progged so many times and every time its no where near as bad/cold by the time it gets here.

    Also for the south east and east coast dwellers it may not be any colder after the last few days of fresh easterlies, I know today/tomorrow much warmer here but its been dam perishing.

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by seaside 60

    I agree it will stay settled one thing which will make it feel colder in the south is a gusty east to north easterly wind which could touch gale force in some exposed areas in the south over the weekend

    Forcasts say for the south east staying at 12c from thursday to sunday.

    Not sure where the 18-20c comes from.

    It will feel like winter again down here if there is little sun.

     

    Sorry that should also include FRostys quote.

    • Like 1

    The Alps Snow Thread - Season 2014/2015

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    What a beautiful day in the Alps! Clear blue skies. Groomed pistes ready for an enjoyable mornings skiing. And deck chairs ready to relax in....

     

    La Plagne attachicon.gifLa Plagne Tues 8th.jpg Saas Fee attachicon.gifSaas Fee Tues 8th.jpg St Christoph attachicon.gifSt Christoph Tues 8th.jpg

    St Christoph looks like its mid winter not spring there, real picture postcard stuff.

    Been to St Anton well late in the season, ski in the morning early lunch,  also the real mans skiing shirt off and sking, just dont fall over lol...

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by seaside 60

    An inevitable but rather delayed eureka moment from the GFS with the op now showing the HP dominated weather extending out till D10:

     

    attachicon.gifgfs-0-120 (1).png attachicon.gifgfs-0-240 (17).png

     

    Of course it is behind the curve and no doubt has overdone the pressure rise and longevity so probably best to keep with the GEM and ECM for the moment.

     

    GEM stalls the high further west this morning allowing the east to be on the periphery of the lower heights in Europe, but mainly settled for most:

     

    attachicon.gifgem-0-150.png attachicon.gifgem-0-240 (23).png

     

    ECM has also adjusted like the GEM with a similar forecast:

     

    attachicon.gifECM1-120 (4).gif attachicon.gifECM1-216 (10).gif

     

    No point looking beyond D8 on the GEFS as at that time they are still showing large spread with no discernible pattern:

     

    attachicon.gifMeteociel_-_Panel_GEFS 4.png

     

    Looking at the ECM D10 NH profile nothing to raise interest here apart from the PV showing signs of becoming less of a driver as would be expected in late March:

     

    attachicon.gifECH1-240 (4).gif  ditto GEM: attachicon.gifgemnh-0-240 (6).png

     

    The bias corrected GEFS MJO still showing the signal de-amplifying in phase 7: attachicon.gifensplume_full (6).gif

     

    In the shorter term feeling cold in the east/SE this weekend with "feels like" temps around 3c at best with lots of cloud. As the hi res models predicted some hill snow with the front today as it stalls and moves back west. 

    Last night Cloud 10 stated that it was phase 8 going into phase 1.

    Is this because the models have changed or different peoples interpretations.

    A genuine question as the MJO has been quoted so much this year.

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