Sperrin
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Posts posted by Sperrin
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Am I right in thinking we look in a poorer position for this colder weather as the week progresses? What day/s are the best chance for snow for us? Milder uppers appear to be moving into Ireland by Thursday/Friday.
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Looks like the walls are crumbling down. Very poor 00z from GFS now being backed by ECM. Get the truckloads of anti-depressants ready for Model thread today.
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Absolutely freezing outside now. Weather warning started at 7pm this evening although no sign of any ppn around the north. Seems to be heavy ppn moving up through Munster.
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Reports that it's snowing at home, stuck in Belfast here at work. Reading 5℃ on car but in the raw winds making it feel much lower!
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Cheers Rochey, when you say "...upper end of pressures for precipitation" what are you referring to?
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Whenever you say disturbance in the flow are you talking about the squiggles in the northerly flow lines? I assume that's a sign of precipitation?
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Big upgrade this morning. Hopefully there's no backlash in the models later today!
Anyway, how about this for a bit of eye candy!
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I am no expert but this looks promising from Michael Ventrice...
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BBC weather this afternoon starting to reflect the change in models (spell or snap: longevity to be determined) next week. I am liking the NNW direction of those winds and precipitation. Am I right in thinking this is the exact setup where we (in the west/north west) did very well last winter, snow wise?
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Serious flooding on either side of M1 before junction12. At least a pattern change will bring respite to many families in crisis across these islands.
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Things getting exciting now!
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Cheers MWB!
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11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Not sure anyone has posted the NOAA 8-14 dayer, but I'm pretty sure John Holmes would confirm this would score 8/10 on the "it's going to get cold" scale
Can I ask why and what this is telling you? I have got a very limited understanding of the ECM/GFS charts but can't get my head around these. Thanks!
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Next week looks like it could be more seasonal for ourselves. Got a bit of a mention in model threads tonight but could be some half decent PM shots from the NW. It's a long way away but something to hang on to next week.
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Just spotted this on the RTE website, a new Irish weather forecasting model:
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Radar looking poor unless showers prep up later in the night.
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Looks like we could see some winter weather tomorrow evening in N Ireland according to the GFS:
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Tomorrow evening may still deliver:
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Unfortunately it looks like our chances of seeing the white stuff has diminished a good bit with this morning's GFS runs. The -4 uppers line has been shunted a good bit west. This also appears to be reflected in the BBC weather app (always take those with a punch of salt!)
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Cheers for the replies, very useful.
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Rookie question; could someone briefly explain what a dam line is and how it relates to cold weather? Cheers.
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Wind really ramping up here, could be some damage later on.
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Am I right in thinking the '09/'10 big freezes came from mid Atlantic blocking rather that an easterly Scandi block? Not insinuating that we might get cold of that magnitude but from reading this thread these type of blocks are better for cold in that less can go wrong.
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Looks like it's going to be hairy this evening.
Looking ahead, I think we could see some joy on Thursday evening/night. Check out the 6z GFS which has -4 uppers covering vast majority of Ireland and a heavy enough ppn which could fall as snow.
Ireland Regional Weather Chat - 20/11/2015 Onward.
in Regional
Posted
Looks like it Pom. Checked the ecm 850s for the week ahead and the uppers remain at -4 or below from 1am on tuesday right through to the weekend. Hopefully we get some precipitation engagement with the right atmospheric conditions to produce the goods. What's the thoughts on Thursdays system? What direction is it moving in from, if it comes in from SW we could miss it in the north.