Pat Butcher

There's no better place to be than the Hull area tonight, and that's not something I'd often say.

The murk has arrived here, initially with a lot of cauliflower but now filling out into grey soup. Not sure what to make of it.

Just been out for my 58th smoke of the day. Lots of cirrus, lots of high-level smooth icy cloud spread around. Some mammatus made a very brief appearance and got stretched to destruction by atmospheric winds. In spite of the high-level ice, there's a pink hue emerging and it feels like something is brewing...

After a brief shower, the sun has broken through the clouds here, there's some Altocumulus Castellanus* popping out and the whole scene looks tastier than a doner kebab after a lock-in. *I am not William Grimsley in disguise, I promise.

Is there anywhere where we can find legit, measured soundings for free? I know you can get GFS modelled ones everywhere, but if GFS is overblowing the CAPE, the calculated soundings will have the same issue.

It's .gov.uk

Interesting feature on the SRH charts on lightningmaps..

My interpretation is that it's like when Estofex have a Level 2 in a 15% lightning area - it's probably not going to happen, but if it does happen then it could be rough. Agreed, there's tons of silly SPC emulations out there, but whoever runs convectiveweather is very good, and is often quite on the money.

Hi there, Welcome to the forum! I'm sorry to hear about your accident, but I'm glad you're getting the support you need. At the moment, my interpretation is that some quite heavy thunderstorms could pop up anywhere in England over the next few days, however a lot of places won't see anything at all. In Stokenchurch, you are fairly out of the way of the highest probability areas. I know that's not very helpful, but there's a lot of uncertainty at the moment. A useful place to keep an eye on might be the Met Office's forecast for Stokenchurch, assuming they have an adapted version that you can read - their precipitation probabilities aren't bad at all, and it's safe to assume that in this environment, any suggestion of rain comes with an implied suggestion of thunder.

Wednesday looks like one of the most interesting setups we've had in a long, long time. We're at stage 2 of the normal English storm process: 1) Epic setup across a sizeable chunk of the UK 2) Isolated precipitation charts 3) Eastern shift of charts 4) Lincolnshire supercell

Crikey, yeah. I was pretty relieved when I saw it land. Gotcha, thank you Jo.

Squawking 7700 now, must be in a hurry to land..

It seems that even with the last-minute turn south, Leeds is completely unscathed so far. It's been a still, rainy day all day today.

Yeah, I was wondering this too - the West Yorkshire urban area clearly seems in for a battering according to the models. Maybe the MetO feel that the Pennines to the West of Yorkshire may provide more shelter than the models depict?

Good old Altocumulus Castellanus. I was so chuffed to get absolutely smashed head on by that storm on Tuesday night. Was that a MCS or just a fat multicell? Either way, it's up there with the Yorkshire Supercell. Summer can finish now, I'm satisfied.

It's gone from sunny skies to angry mammatus here. It'd be great to see some action as everything has skirted around Leeds so far. Weirdly, these are coming in from the North..

It's that time of the year again! Please see attached for today's convectiv forecarsed. Optimised for your area.

Just to check folks, it's early days yet but it looks like this will be in an environment of substantial SRH with minimal (5-10kt) shear. Is it possible for severe storms to develop in this environment, or are we more looking at strong pulse storms?

As with the past few days, a dull layer of stratus sits over Leeds, suffocating any joy and excitement (kinda reminds me of my ex). If we get any surface heating then I'm sure we'll get thunder, but we haven't had a cloud break in several days so it's pretty unlikely here.

Agreed - that tower looks like a Harrogate job. Judging by the way the Burnley cell just sat there for a couple of hours, I'd suggest that unless something develops on top of your head, you may get a distant light show at best.

Some gorgeous, fat, cauliflower convection bubbling up North and East of here at a rapid pace. No defined Cb shape yet, but can see it visibly rising.

A hazy day here in Leeds, looks like a bit of a dead rubber. Although our local airport reckons they've got towering cumulus...

A nice little altocumulus castellanus building over Yorkshire (see pic)...

Time to get giddy William! #altocumuluscastellanus #prayforwilliam

Bingo!