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Pat Butcher

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Everything posted by Pat Butcher

  1. Pat Butcher
    I can still see flashes from that storm 30 miles away heading into the Dales. Absolutely incredible. Hoping for that storm to veer NE enough to get a direct hit here.
  2. Pat Butcher
    Finally broken the NSC duck! Got some exceptional flashes (with no thunder) racing away to the NE with a beast of a cell on its way for a direct hit. Cheers everyone!
  3. Pat Butcher
    I feel like there'll be some great cells kicking off soon, there's still a ton of energy in the atmosphere.
  4. Pat Butcher
    Gorgeous cumulonimbus pileus to my East, which bust straight through to continue climbing into a Cb in moments. Massive updrafts - somewhere north east of here will get a pasting!
  5. Pat Butcher
    Yup, although it was bloody spectacular developing over us!
  6. Pat Butcher
    Stunning skies in North Leeds. Can anyone tell me what this is?
  7. Pat Butcher
    Agreed with those advising caution on the Estofex forecast. Ingredients based forecasting is exactly that. Possessing an onion and wearing a beret doesn't necessarily mean that you can make French Onion Soup. However, it also doesn't mean that you can't, either...
  8. Pat Butcher
    Opening a beer for that Estofex forecast...
  9. Pat Butcher
    Hi folks, Just to check - UKMO have downgraded my part of the world to zero precipitation tomorrow. Assuming that the model gets it spot on (big assumption I know), does that mean guaranteed no storms?
  10. Pat Butcher
    Sounds like a fantastic day out. Take some pictures - even if the Lincolnshire lot do get all the storms they'll never have seen a view like it!
  11. Pat Butcher
    Here's my theory: I grew up in rural Wales, where you could see for miles around. However, living in Leeds as I do now, there's loads of hills and buildings everywhere. If there was a storm within 10 miles in Wales, I'd have seen and heard it. Now, I can see something kicking off on radar 5 miles up the road, but have absolutely no concept of it where I am. If I had the day off tomorrow, I'd head up the Chevin and sit outside the Royalty, watching the anvils roll by. What a great day that would be!
  12. Pat Butcher
    As a 2-year member of the NSC, I refuse to believe you mate! We're in the firing line, it's up to the gods now.
  13. Pat Butcher
    Welcome Tony!
  14. Pat Butcher
    Wow, tomorrow afternoon/evening is absolutely exceptional on that model, storms running east to west across the spine of northern mainland Britain. Less so on GFS but more than enough energy to kick off. I'll be interested to see what the experts (Nick F, Estofex) make of the severe threat. The models definitely don't scream tornadoes however there's hugely significant disagreement (see the two 0-6km shear models).
  15. Pat Butcher
    It's too early on Monday morning to post anything in the technical thread, but Wednesday 18-21Z is making me rather tumescent...
  16. Pat Butcher
    Warm humid evening, a couple of hundred J/kg CAPE, probably only just meets the hypersensitive threshold for thunder. There'll probably be thunder forecast over a very broad area, with a couple of strikes popping up here and there.
  17. Pat Butcher
    Any Altocumulus Castellanus?
  18. Pat Butcher
    Anyone else spotted that little storm just to the east of Basel? Can't be more than 10 miles in diameter yet it's clocking up just shy of 180 strikes/min. Is that normal for a strong pulse storm or indicative of something stronger?
  19. Pat Butcher
    Really? Would be absolutely chuffed. According to the Netweather storm risk calculator we're in for 1300 CAPE with -5 LI until about midday when it all dissipates. It is really hot and humid out there at the moment but there isn't a cloud in the sky.
  20. Pat Butcher
    I can't handle this lack of risk-based storm forecasting fix. Let's make our own.
  21. Pat Butcher
    Just FYI - you can set up a proximity alarm on the Blitzortung Lightning Monitor app on Android, so that it'll go off when lightning is detected within X km of your location. Definitely not 100% reliable but I'll certainly be leaving my phone next to my bed tonight.
  22. Pat Butcher
    Just to put me out of my misery, anything as far north and central as Leeds is out of the question?
  23. Pat Butcher
    Whoever said we might get excited when LightningWizard's charts come into range was spot on. Looking at LightningWizard for 09Z on Friday I'd posit this is a classic Estofex Level 1 scenario for mainly the South Eastern tip of England and to a lesser extent mainland England as far as Bristol in the West and Newcastle in the North. Low level CAPE in a minimally heated environment, but with 150-300m2/s2 SRH1 and 40-60kt to greatly assist organisation should anything happen to develop.
  24. Pat Butcher
    Really great post there, thanks Ralph. That aerial photo brings home the fact that as much as I'd love to witness a proper supercell, the prospect of that F3 roaring its way through my little terraced house is considerably less appealing!
  25. Pat Butcher
    Stop it, we all know that this good stuff is just going to end up in Lincolnshire!
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