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Pat Butcher

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Everything posted by Pat Butcher

  1. Pat Butcher
    With 75% forecast confidence I see. Best get the sledge out!
  2. Pat Butcher
  3. Pat Butcher
    Based on @staplehurst's success rate so far this year, I've concluded that he is not an exceptionally skilled weather forecaster, but in fact a psychic who can see into the future. I for one welcome our new psychic convective overlord.
  4. Pat Butcher
    Honestly mate, best storm of the year on a cold day in September, would never have thought it.
  5. Pat Butcher
    I suggest that’s a mini supercell near Leeds. It’s been at 10 strikes/min for two hours now. When I was nearby, the wind was drawing strongly towards a clearly rotating core roughly 200yds wide. Am open to other hypotheses also, could just be a long-lived pulse storm with coincidental rotation..
  6. Pat Butcher
    Gotcha!
  7. Pat Butcher
    That's not what she said.
  8. Pat Butcher
    I reckon UKV has smashed the lot out of the park.
  9. Pat Butcher
    I know everything's a supercell to us overexcitable storm nerds, so let me be the first. I see a cheeky hook echo, and it seems to have broken off from the NNW flow to NNE. A storm spotter report from the ground (my Mum) say it's the biggest storm she's seen in years. What do we think?
  10. Pat Butcher
    Hope you’ve got your tornado shelter prepped, looks like a nasty one.
  11. Pat Butcher
    60mph gusts in the middle of all that mess as well!
  12. Pat Butcher
    Unlikely this evening and overnight, but Porthmadog is well in the firing line any time after breakfast tomorrow mate.
  13. Pat Butcher
    Fair play to 'em for trying, but screenshotting GFS composite parameters from lightningwizard is a pretty lazy attempt at storm forecasting IMO...
  14. Pat Butcher
    Apparently I’m directly under one of those heavy Leeds showers. Only a couple of drops, suggesting that the precip is evaporating on its way to the deck.
  15. Pat Butcher
    Hasn't really shown up on lightning detectors but a very significant ｆｌａｓｈｙｂｏｉworked its way past LBA airport earlier. Lots of luscious white flashes and shotgun thunder.
  16. Pat Butcher
    Got nailed-on caught out in the open in that main cell, thinking I could get up a hill and catch a few flashes before the rain hit. After sweating my tits off for three days, was absolutely fantastic.
  17. Pat Butcher
    Although maybe not from 30,000 feet.
  18. Pat Butcher
    Bullish from Met Office there. Love the talk of frequent lightning and large hailstones!
  19. Pat Butcher
    Interesting - GFS and ICON both going for storms breaking out over Pennine and North Welsh hills on Weds eve. EURO4 having none of it.
  20. Pat Butcher
    ICON FI run fancying a huge MCS scything West to East across the British mainland on Friday night. Which would be an acceptable way to end the week, to be fair.
  21. Pat Butcher
    Very distant rumbles from the North Yorkshire cell, great views here though.
  22. Pat Butcher
    Whew
  23. Pat Butcher
    Nothing storms-wise up a hill here in Leeds, great view though.
  24. Pat Butcher
    Yep, this is the one for me, bloody incredible. I could still see strikes at the cloud tops from Leeds when the centre of the storm was near Hartlepool.
  25. Pat Butcher
    To be fair, by their criteria, Estofex's warning has verified perfectly - that squall line was convective in nature, enhanced the speeds of the underlying wind field and its winds undoubtedly exceeded 49kt in places.
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