Pat Butcher

There's a massive anvil sat over Leeds at the moment, as well as some disorganised convective mess towards LBA. I'd be surprised if we got more than a rumble or two but it's spectacular to look at. It'll be a bumpy ride for anyone flying in!

For the lazy: Synopsis Upper trough will drift east across the UK on Tuesday, a slow-moving surface low will be situated to the east of Scotland over the North Sea, with an unstable NWly flow covering the UK, with troughs in the flow. ... EIRE/N IRELAND, ENGLAND, WALES & S SCOTLAND ... Cold mid-level temperatures (-25 to -35C at 500mb) will overspread the UK in association with upper trough, creating steep lapse rates with surface heating and supporting a broad swathe of showers/thunderstorms across much of the UK on Tuesday. Weak wind shear, cool temperatures and dew points of only 4-6C creating a large temp - dew point spread will mean severe weather is unlikely. However, steep lapse rates and cold temps aloft will support the generation of hail and gusty winds with stronger cells. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess= My view: I recall NMM4 had up to 600j/kg CAPE with 0 - -4 LI for much of the shaded area for the majority of the daytime, so I'm looking forward to some excited posts on here! Tenner says that Lincs gets a flipping supercell and nowhere else gets touched, though.

Sod the storm, it's the imminent Ice Age I'm concerned about!

Probably selective memory from growing up in that beautiful part of the world. Anyway, quieter than expected in Leeds so far, can hear the breeze outside but nothing to write home about. I expect it's on its way!

I'd advise caution when getting excited about a Capel Curig observations. I don't know precisely where the weather station is, but the village is halfway up a mountain with pretty much a wind tunnel leading it to the Irish Sea. 100mph+ observations are normal for an Atlantic storm there, even if the surrounding civilisation only picks up 65.Source: grew up round those parts

Yeah, Met Office has downgraded most of Yorkshire by 10mph for the initial wave (which is now relatively harmless by their forecast) and upgraded the second wave by about 10-15mph (meaning 60mph+ gusts for the Thursday rush hour). Interesting to see such a significant change so close to the event, shows how unpredictable this is.

I know, I have the same problem with Outflow Wind and Carry On films. So is this because the hills reduce the amount of available space for the winds to blow in, thereby concentrating the energy? I'm assuming it's not that the Wind Gnomes are able to run faster downhill.

Long time lurker popping my head above the parapet here - what is a lee gust? I've seen reference to this term on both Netweather and the MO, but Googling hasn't turned up a definitive answer...