AdamStorm7891

If the predicted winds upgrade by about 30mph then yes but that highly unlikely, at this stage its looking comparable to the 23rd December 13 storm. Nasty yes but nothing out of the norm for a mid winter storm!

I thought they might issue their first warnings at Noon today, good call. But they forecast 80mph for inland areas for St' Jude and it never materialized, just saying like! ;-)

Based on the models I'd say quite similar to the 23rd December 13 storm but stronger then St' Jude when MetO gust predictions started downgrading just hours before it hit. The highest gusts we got in St' Jude was only around 55-65mph and didn't last long so hardly the 80-90mph storm of the century they where hyping it up to be!

St Jude = Officially the most overhyped storm in history, the storms in October 2000 and 2002 where both significantly stronger and longer lasting. A wind event that only lasts about 40 minutes can't even be warranted a Storm in my opinion, it was a freak squall nothing more!

Yes it's true that 1987 saw gusts of 110-120mph+ in some coastal towns but inland it was more generally between 80-100mph so anything much above 70mph inland is really going some which doesn't seem out of the question for Wednesday night although I think 55-60mph will be the general rule of thumb. The fact that Shetland has seen gusts in the same territory as 1987 in recent days surely warranted a RED warning? It's bordering on barbaric that no Red Warnings where issued, try telling those who have been without power for 3 days that Red Warnings shouldn't have been!

But that gust of 113mph was the strongest on record in Stornoway so surely this warrants the term "incredible" even by their standards, and it was equally if not more powerful then the 1987 storm, but I guess you're right because it's not heavily populated up there there's less of an impact! 90+ would be comparable to 1987 and the Burn's Day storms and I really don't think we want to go there do we?...

Well on the Beaufort Scale anything over 55mph qualifies as Storm Force 10.

No an extreme event is 80-90mph+ or if you like in the far north of Scotland 100mph+ lol 113mph at Stornoway the other day, why was only Amber warnings issued? Surely RED warnings where warranted, there's no doubt there would have been had that been down South.

For those that like snow in John Hammonds latest forecast for the week ahead he said once Wednesday/Thursdays storm has passed the Jetstream is going to sink south of us allowing colder air to plunge down from the north with more places seeing wintry showers, so maybe a sign of our first real cold snap (wintry spell) coming up!

Looks like we're in for a rough ride, any upgrades would certainly start getting concerning!

I'm still convinced you're looking at predicted mean winds (NOT) gusts. However the latest update from GFS and there's been a noticeable downgrade!

Are you sure you're not looking at average (mean) winds there? Gusts will be more like double that based on current graphs. Winds look to peak at around midnight Wednesday into Thursday across the South-East with 60mph+ potentially in and around London and the Home Counties with coasts experiencing 75-80mph with a narrow band of 90mph+ showing out in the North-Sea just offshore from The Wash.

^^ This model gives the scariest scenario But this 1 seems the most probable!

I think they will have, the peak of the winds at this stage appears to occur between midnight and 3am Thursday morning before beginning to ease off by the time dawn breaks it'll probably just be a little bit blustery. Overnight gusts will be potentially 60-70mph inland based on current predictions with 75-80 locally perhaps more on exposed coasts, hold on tight!

Countryfile forecast tomorrow should give us a slightly clearer indication of what to expect but at the moment its not looking pretty :-(

BBC weather have increased the winds for Wednesday night and are indicating 2 spells with it peaking around midday Thursday.

I'll be soiling myself if the charts are still suggesting something as monumental as that in a couple of days time.

I don't think it'll be as severe as the GFS is making out, because supposedly the upper level Jetstream is loosing some of it's potency therefore there'll be less energy stirring up any LP systems heading our way although if a big storm was to develop because the upper level winds wouldn't be as strong the ground level winds could last for longer!

Hmmm... depends on what Chart/Graph you read I suppose, the Netweather graph and GFS charts are going for 60 to 90mph winds from around 9pm Wednesday through until the early hours of Thursday before easing off.

That's because the winds will be dying down by Thursday daytime, most of the strongest winds will be overnight Wednesday into Thursday!

Yes it'll be a case of Round 3 for Scotland on Monday, I don't envy them up there it must feel like the Florida Keys in hurricane season lol. A proper windstorm in the South is overdue though!

It looks increasingly like if this storm is going to hit that it'll mostly be Wednesday evening overnight into Thursday, so this will of course minimalize the impact comparatively speaking to if it was to hit during the daytime.

If this was to come to fruition I think I'll immigrate lol 70mph+ inland gusts for inland areas across the SE including London on this and 90+ out in the North-Sea and in The Channel.

It'll be interesting to see how things develop for us then Meggy. Interestingly I typed in Upminster for Netweather's local forecast and the graph showed winds peaking on Wednesday evening here with the pressure gradient dropping to 990mb (so I suspect we are a fair way from the LP centre and the strongest of the winds) but it still suggested gusts in the region of 60mph.

A scary prospect IF that was to come off.