icbinb
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Posts posted by icbinb
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Trying not to be biased towards the storms I have seen...
1st Broken Bow
2nd Scottsbluff
3rd Ballinger
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Not had time to look at any charts, so I will just go with my golden 'storms always seem to fire in Abilene' rule! I will start my day there for a bit of fun.
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I think you may need to clear your cache, as there is an enhanced for central Texas with a 10% tornado area.
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First one of the season. I would be sitting somewhere just west of Tonkawa today.
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Not far east of Norwich here, and we did indeed get hammered. At least ten CG's, and an intense squall. For a while I thought the fence was going to come down. Norwich airport reported a gust of 58 mph.
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Didn't get too many photos during my storm chasing exploits, but this was my favourite one we got. Near sunset in Kansas, Pratt I think? April 2013. I think this was the one taken by Trevor (he had a better camera than me!).
Great Bend, looking east at the supercell moving away from us. April 7th 2013. Not that I remember or anything...
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Although I am by no means an expert, I do have a little knowledge of polar lows as they are part of my dissertation. There have been quite a few comments about the 500 mb temperatures not being cold enough, with -40 being quoted several times. This is a good guide temperature, but polar lows strengthen mainly due to temperature contrast between the surface and aloft. With 'warm' seas, it is not a requirement to have a 500 mb temperature of -40.
In regards wind speeds, there is no strict definition, although 15 m/s is commonly used.
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I think this could well be a polar low. The 500 hPa temperatures are around -37/-38, which combined with the 'warm' seas around there leads to plenty of convective instability. Recent research has used a temperature difference of 43 degrees as one of the criteria in detecting potential systems. Synoptically it is in the right environment, and it doesn't look like a frontal feature to me.
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As we seem to say every year, the Texas Panhandle could really do with some rain.
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With you but its down again!
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Give us a chance to fire up the radar, i've only just had my dinner!
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Ouch. Sounds nasty. Hope you have a swift recovery.
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Can actually see the thing spin on the stream.
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Beautiful stream so far.
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It was good for a lot of the evening, even though the status said offline.
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Works fine Tom.
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Incredible pictures! Not jealous at all....
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Can't make it sadly.
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0191.html
And there it is!
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF GROVE
OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES EAST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 189...WW 190...
DISCUSSION...RAPID INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BOTH NEAR A STALLED SURFACE FRONT ROUGHLY WEST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND NEAR THE PRE-FRONTAL DRYLINE NOSING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH THE MOST
PROMINENT TORNADO THREAT...WHICH PROBABLY WILL INCREASE BY EARLY
EVENING AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENLARGES
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES MAY NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY...SOME VERY LARGE...
WITH INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES AND EVOLVES INTO AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...KERR -
Where arew you Arron we are in Shawnee and are blocked off
Tom
According to GPS they are halfway between the 377 and the 56 junctions on the interstate.
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Not sure if the team are aware, but part of the interstate may be closed, so probably best to try another route.
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Nick has left his halls in Norman already! I think he was on the same storm as Paul and the gang.
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0698.html
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0698
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN...CNTRL...AND SRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 191845Z - 191945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL OK. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY INTENSIFY
AND POSE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.
DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS FROM 18Z SHOWS A DRYLINE RAPIDLY MIXING
EWD ACROSS WRN OK...ATTENDANT TO A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER NWRN
OK...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS WIDESPREAD ACROSS CNTRL
OK. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS FAR NRN OK...BUT UNIFORM SLY WINDS WERE NOTED ON BOTH
SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASINGLY AGITATED LINE OF
CU WAS NOTED PRECEDING THE DRYLINE...ORIENTED SW-NE FROM NEAR A 30 E
CSM TO 15 NW END LINE...WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FOCUS FOR INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER IMPULSE
CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE OK AND NRN TX PANHANDLES SHOULD
CONTINUE EWD NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER.
STRONG SFC HEATING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MOST OF OK...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER CU FORMING MORE RECENTLY BUT STILL EXHIBITING CAPPED/FLAT
CHARACTER. PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...ALONG WITH
FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S F WITHIN THE MOIST AIR...SHOULD RESULT IN EROSION OF
THE SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION NOTED IN THE 18Z OUN SOUNDING. AS
THIS OCCURS...DISCRETE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEARS
LIKELY...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.
TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACCOMPANYING SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...AS WIND
PROFILES CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.
RECENT SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONVECTION
SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA BETWEEN
20-21Z...AND PERHAPS AFTER 21Z ACROSS SWRN/S-CNTRL OK. A TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
..ROGERS/KERR.. 05/19/2013
Storm Chase 2015 - Which Tour Are You On?
in Storm Chase USA
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Me and Ashley Nelis went with the Days Inn as it's only 60 quid at the moment. Pretty much next door to the Holiday Inn so we won't have much hassle on the 12th.