icbinb
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Posts posted by icbinb
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Well i've found two other idiots prepared to chase with me. Now, Monday or Tuesday? mmmmm
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Thanks to everyone on tour 1 for making the most of what was a dreadful run of luck, meaning I enjoyed the tour even more than I did last year. The weather gods seemed to be toying with us, and Paul's luck was out(The run of lost coin tosses had to be seen to be believed!). Despite all this, we still had some memorable days. Is two o'clock the earliest ever leaving time for a chase? The first and last chases were spectacular, as was departure day. Seven states in total, although one has since been removed from all conversations!
Also thanks to tours 2, 3 and 4, for putting up with us virtual chasers and our requests on the live stream!
I think the fact that everyone will bust a gut to get back out there again next year shows that you must be doing a great job.
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Finally got round to sorting pics of this memorable day.
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Fantastic stuff!
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Back to Weatherford for me today. Good luck.
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Stuttgart to Memphis in a high risk. Where have I heard that before? Been really good viewing tonight, stream held up pretty well.
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Pine Bluff for me today. Follow that corridor of good chase territory north east. Plus it brings back good memories!
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Passengers have been taken to the tornado shelters at DFW International.
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Confirmed tornado near Haslet just north of Fort Worth.
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Also another storm just to the north of Fort Worth that looks suspicious, with two new cells also heading in the general direction of DFW.
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This is looking like an ominous day ahead.
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You gave in to your stomachs! Shocking.
Initiation in the next hour!
First MD of many:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...WRN AND CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241718Z - 241845Z
STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. SUPERCELLS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED BY 18Z.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 997 MB LOW IN THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR WRN OK INTO WEST TX.
THE DRYLINE IS STARTING TO ADVANCE EWD WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXPANDING FIELD OF CUMULUS FROM I-40 IN WRN OK
SWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO IN WCNTRL TX. AS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CAP WEAKENS...RAPID CELL INITIATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. AS THIS OCCURS...A 50 TO 65
KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WILL CREATE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. AS
STORMS INTENSIFY...VERY LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER
WILL BECOME LIKELY. IN ADDITION...A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS IN
PLACE ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK. AS THIS FEATURE
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES INCREASING INTO THE
450 TO 600 M2/S2 RANGE...LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
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High risk zone has been expanded in the latest update. The risk extends a bit further southwards into Northern Texas. 45% risk of tornadoes within 25 miles of any point in that zone.
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Well, based on my last two days of awful targets, the area for the team to avoid like the plague is Wellington, Kansas. Have fun and stay safe.
Edit- Purely based on the cloud cover I would get myself down into Western Oklahoma where it is clear at the moment, maybe somewhere like Weatherford.
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Horrible to see. Shows you what a mean storm it was if even with 20 minutes there were so many casualties.
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Ardmore for me
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Updated MD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0876
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0810 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...NRN TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 326...
VALID 230110Z - 230215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 326 CONTINUES.
WW 326 MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME...OR REPLACED BY A NEW WW
DURING THE NEXT HR.
AT 01Z...CLUSTERS OF STORMS AND ISOLATED RIGHT AND LEFT MOVING
SUPERCELLS WERE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN TX AND SRN OK. THOUGH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE
NIGHT...COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ AND RESERVOIR OF
INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH ONGOING STORMS /MUCAPE VALUES AOA 2500 J
PER KG/ WILL LIKELY AID STORM PERSISTENCE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY NIGHT. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER
NRN/NERN TX AND SRN/SERN OK...POSING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES
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Thats some big hail in there! You shouldn't have encouraged them. Look what you've started :lol:
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New MD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0869
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/SERN OK...NRN TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 326...
VALID 222334Z - 230030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 326 CONTINUES.
AXIS OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS RESIDES AHEAD OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF
STORMS...SOME SUPERCELLS...OVER NRN TX. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD MLCAPE VALUES FROM
3000-4000 J/KG...WHILE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES FROM 40-50 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT FAVORS SUPERCELLS
POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL. THOUGH AREA VWP/S AND RUC
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAKNESS IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A TORNADO THREAT
STILL EXISTS...PARTICULARLY FOR STRONGLY DEVIANT RIGHT MOVERS. AS
EVENING APPROACHES...LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT STORMS OVER N TX MAY
EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO A QLCS...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
CLOSE SPACING OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS EXPECTED
INTENSIFICATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ. OTHERWISE IN THE SHORT
TERM...ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED S OF WW 326 AS RIGHT
MOVING STORM EXITS BROWN COUNTY TX AND MOVES ACROSS COMANCHE COUNTY
AND LOCATIONS FARTHER DOWNSTREAM.
FARTHER N OVER PORTIONS OF SRN OK...LEFT MOVING SUPERCELL WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OFF OF THE WWD RETREATING DRYLINE...THOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN IF SVR
STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY OUTFLOW FROM THE LEFT MOVER AND
N TX ACTIVITY.
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New MD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0861
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX...S-CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 326...
VALID 222047Z - 222145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 326 CONTINUES.
INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED ACROSS JACK COUNTY TX
WITH NUMEROUS CB/TCU DEEPENING GENERALLY S OF THE RED RIVER THROUGH
W-CNTRL TX. FARTHER N IN S-CNTRL OK...CU FIELD IS NOT QUITE AS
DEVELOPED. HOWEVER...SURFACE THERMAL AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S IS OVERLAPPING THE DRYLINE
HERE...WITH SUBTLE BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS IN THE MOIST SECTOR
ENHANCING CONVERGENCE. AS SUCH...AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS PROBABLE BETWEEN 22-23Z.
AIR MASS WITHIN MUCH OF WW 326 REMAINS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE
OF 4500 TO 6000 J/KG PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND MODIFIED 18Z FWD
RAOB. MEANWHILE...VAD WIND PROFILE AT FWS CONTINUES TO SAMPLE AROUND
25 KT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH HAS NOW BACKED FROM THE SW TO THE S/SW AT
1 KM AGL. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY AFTER 00Z. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALREADY AROUND 40
KT...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS PRODUCING
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
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Another tornado watch!
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 326
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 321...WW 322...WW
323...WW 324...WW 325...
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING ERODES
REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. 18Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE
WARM SECTOR IS ALREADY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 5000 J/KG. THIS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
35-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SLY LLJ.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...MEAD
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Tornado watch issued north and east of the team.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 325
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
JEFFERSON CITY MISSOURI TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF MUSKOGEE OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 321...WW 322...WW
323...WW 324...
DISCUSSION...EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT
ONE TO TWO HOURS ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SERN KS AND NERN
OK. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT HAS
BECOME STRONGLY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-5000 J/KG.
THE PRESENCE OF 35-40 KT WLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. MOREOVER...SWRN EXTENSION
OF A 30-35 KT SWLY LLJ WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
REGION...RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 150-250 M2/S2 AND AN
ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...MEAD
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SPC having a fun day today!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NERN OK...MUCH OF SRN AND SWRN MO...NRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 221806Z - 222000Z
A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED E OF THE DRYLINE WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEARLY ALL
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BEEN ERODED...THUS EXPECTED CU ALONG THE
DRYLINE TO ERUPT INTO INTENSE SUPERCELLS. EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL IS
LIKELY...AND ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS A BIT MARGINAL...IT WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY.
..JEWELL.. 05/22/2011
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New MD issued
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0851
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL/NWRN TX INTO S-CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 221742Z - 221945Z
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE BY MID-AFTERNOON. PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/. THE PROBABILITY OF ONE OR MORE WW ISSUANCES
BY 20Z IS 80 PERCENT.
17Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED DRYLINE FROM AROUND 40 E SPS
SWWD TO 60 SE MAF. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CU
DEEPENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. INCIPIENT TSTM FORMATION
APPEARS PROBABLE BY 19Z AS AIR MASS HAS BECOME LARGELY UNCAPPED
BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z DRT/FWD RAOBS WITH MLCAPE AOA 4000 J/KG. THIS
EXTREME INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 35 TO 40 KT W/SWLYS AT 500 MB WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL.
MODEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE
TORNADO THREAT. ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY...LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
INCREASING NEAR AND AFTER 00Z AS MASS RESPONSE OCCURS DOWNSTREAM OF
A WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FARTHER EAST... STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SAMPLED IN PROFILER/VWP DATA ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SHOULD
LARGELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
Fantastic stuff!
El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 5
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Its great watching a potent cell miss you by a few miles..... knowing that is the closest they will get.