icbinb

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0698.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0698 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN...CNTRL...AND SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 191845Z - 191945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTM INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL OK. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY INTENSIFY AND POSE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS FROM 18Z SHOWS A DRYLINE RAPIDLY MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN OK...ATTENDANT TO A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER NWRN OK...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS WIDESPREAD ACROSS CNTRL OK. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS FAR NRN OK...BUT UNIFORM SLY WINDS WERE NOTED ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASINGLY AGITATED LINE OF CU WAS NOTED PRECEDING THE DRYLINE...ORIENTED SW-NE FROM NEAR A 30 E CSM TO 15 NW END LINE...WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FOCUS FOR INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE OK AND NRN TX PANHANDLES SHOULD CONTINUE EWD NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER. STRONG SFC HEATING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MOST OF OK...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CU FORMING MORE RECENTLY BUT STILL EXHIBITING CAPPED/FLAT CHARACTER. PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...ALONG WITH FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S F WITHIN THE MOIST AIR...SHOULD RESULT IN EROSION OF THE SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION NOTED IN THE 18Z OUN SOUNDING. AS THIS OCCURS...DISCRETE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEARS LIKELY...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACCOMPANYING SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...AS WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. RECENT SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA BETWEEN 20-21Z...AND PERHAPS AFTER 21Z ACROSS SWRN/S-CNTRL OK. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ..ROGERS/KERR.. 05/19/2013

Saw it on Charles Edwards and it looked stunning!

Will be there, but will be missing out on a few drinks as my last lecture is at 6

I'm not Nick, but I can say that GCSE'S results were of secondary importance to getting good A-Levels in Maths and Physics. At the moment Reading requires B's in both, but that is subject to change. Geography is a bonus I would say, not a requirement to get on a Meteorology course. But it is good if you decide to go down a more geophysical science route. The maths can be a bit of a grind at times, but when it all starts to link together as the course goes on it gets a lot better.

Hopefully we have some video of that!

What is the plan? Ian has just gone to get Owen. Whats the plan for when they get back?

Thats the one. The swines haven't let me upgrade mine, so I will be slumming it!

Any other folks flying out early on the direct BA flight on Tuesday?

I didn't know Paul doesn't like towering cumulus, every chase must be a nightmare for him! He should probably go to Nebraska more often.

But more importantly a free hot breakfast!

Any news on a hotel for Denver yet? Once I have done that I can sort my ESTA then relax!

I believe Ian is trying to sort something regarding insurance, so no need to worry just yet. No pressure Ian!

I will be. Only up the road in Reading so I can be there whenever.

Sharing a taxi sounds like a decent idea.

I have a twin room booked if you still need it.

Room booked

I should be able to make this one.

Hearing a few rumbles here, so the report is probably correct.

Is it too early to start counting the days?

Oxford is almost perfect for me! See you there.

Nick F done a great guide a few years back which I found useful http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/37775-n-w-storm-chasers-guide/

Pleasant surprise of a thunderstorm here in Reading. Lasted about half an hour. Saw a few flashes of lightning and heard some reasonably loud thunder.

Not sure on any of my exam dates, but pretty confident they would be over by tour 5, if it was run. So I would be keen.

Several flashes and bangs! Hopefully more coming up from the south

Wahey! We have action here!