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New MD issued MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0851 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL/NWRN TX INTO S-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 221742Z - 221945Z ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MID-AFTERNOON. PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/. THE PROBABILITY OF ONE OR MORE WW ISSUANCES BY 20Z IS 80 PERCENT. 17Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED DRYLINE FROM AROUND 40 E SPS SWWD TO 60 SE MAF. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CU DEEPENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. INCIPIENT TSTM FORMATION APPEARS PROBABLE BY 19Z AS AIR MASS HAS BECOME LARGELY UNCAPPED BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z DRT/FWD RAOBS WITH MLCAPE AOA 4000 J/KG. THIS EXTREME INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 35 TO 40 KT W/SWLYS AT 500 MB WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. MODEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE TORNADO THREAT. ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING NEAR AND AFTER 00Z AS MASS RESPONSE OCCURS DOWNSTREAM OF A WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FARTHER EAST... STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED IN PROFILER/VWP DATA ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SHOULD LARGELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

Well, time for my first ever punt on a location. I would target Shawnee, Oklahoma.

MD issued for Arkansas. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0850 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR INTO NRN MS/SWRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321... VALID 221615Z - 221745Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321 CONTINUES. A FEW STRONGER CORES CONTINUE TO REGENERATE UPSHEAR ATOP OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION OVER CNTRL AR. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND A PERSISTENT FEED OF MOISTURE NEWD...THIS TREND MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS MINIMAL...WITH SPORADIC HAIL CORES LIKELY AND HEAVY RAIN. SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS THOUGH...AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR ANY UPSCALE GROWTH.

Could be an interesting landing for those Tour 3 folks arriving! Plenty of storms around DFW.

As long as you don't get someone kicking the back of your chair all trip all is well. Have a good un.

Just think of fluffy bunnies and Heineken. It will all be fine!

You'll be a lot happier once you are drinking in Dallas. Have you got your nicorette?

Sounds like one of those days you will always talk about. Lovely photos from just a see text!

Great stuff. Just the sort of chase day everyone loves, keeping you on your toes!

Even the timing of the bus ride to the terminal was planned around a break in the storms! I think we were all happy to exchange that show for a four hour late departure. We started by doing shuttle runs into the building to check the radar as the storms were out to our south west. The MCS then made a lurch east towards to us, and we saw the gust front coming towards us. Managed a few pics before we got battered by the wind and rain, then the lightning show started. We were pretty much surrounded by cells not knowing which way to look. One particularly close CG had us all with stupid grins on our faces while the Car Rental staff looked on bemused. During a brief lull in the MCS, we darted to the terminal building where we quickly checked in, then proceeded to a westerly facing window. Very few planes took off or landed for several hours while the storms lingered. After a visit to the bar to celebrate our success, we spotted some beautiful mammatus to finish the day. Pics to follow when I'm a bit less tired!

Some ridiculous dew points here already. Severe thunderstorm watch for us folks still in Irving. Could be a bumpy take off! Good luck tour 2, I have a good feeling about today.

What time are you folks getting there tomorrow? Still have shopping and packing to do, but its only a short bus ride from here so i'm aiming for seven o'clock.

I'm another one in the yet to pack club. Doing the last bits of shopping today. Getting properly excited now.

I seem to remember last year the models were looking good before tour 1, then it ended up quieter than expected. This year will be the reverse. Think positive people!

A bit too close for comfort!

Am I allowed to get stupidly excited yet?

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/streamaudio.htm Gonna be a few late nights coming up!

To be honest, I had a superb time last year, so the same again would be good enough for me! But as much as I loved the night-chases, a daytime tornado would be easier for us all!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 10 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 105 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL 800 PM CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 85 MILES NORTHWEST OF EVERGREEN ALABAMA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 9... DISCUSSION...A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SE LA AND SRN MS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...REACHING SW AL AROUND 23Z. OTHER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE FROM SE LA INTO SE MS ALONG THE LLJ AND MOIST AXIS. A SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING FROM LIX SHOWED THAT THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY IS STILL BASED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...BUT VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODES NOW OBSERVED. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045. ...THOMPSON

SPC have a slight risk for SE Texas later today. Saturday night is a good night for a virtual chase. Although they don't mention a tornado risk, and only have a 2% risk on the map.

Thanks for putting that up. It was such a beautiful storm. Good things come to those who wait.

I think you were right with Concordia. Got the pizza ordered in because of severe thunderstorms outside! That poor delivery man.

Well i'm another step closer. Just booked my flights with BA. Flying out 11.25 on the 28th April, and returning 17.50 on the 10th May. At least this year I ain't got passports and Esta to worry about!

Which flight are you guys getting on the 28th April? Looks like you may have another to add to the gang. Poor old BA having to put up with us lot!

Regrettably I won't be able to make the Cardiff meet up, as I need to save every penny for America! Plenty to sort out, looking forward to meeting everyone on tour 1, and seeing Paul, Tom and Ian again. Can't wait!