Day 10

February 7

Nothing wrong with that.

February 7

I really do feel your pain with that shadow effect as the Wirral has many ways of avoiding snow too depending on the setup, that 5 baron years quite recently was horrible, chasing, posting, chasing, posting only to sit here with rain while pics come flying in of snow all around the region. I suppose it's swings and roundabouts with certain setups and certain parts of our region, the region has crazy localized weather at times. My fingers are crossed for you. We might still end up with rain yet, who knows.

February 7

Joe Bloggs

The Wirral & parts of Liverpool have upgraded overnight Joe, it's by far our best setup, about a 1 in 10 year event. As others have said, the Met text forecast doesn't really match this mornings charts though from what I can see.

I'd say snowfall pushing in from about 7am in the south of the region, lasting until about lunchtime before gradually fizzling out.

The 2 main ones.

GFS

ECM

The snow then continues to push north turning a little more patchy as it does so, quickly followed by another heavier pulse which will fall as rain in the south of the region but snow further north, especially on the hills.

I think most of us will see the white stuff Thurs or Fri.

Thurs pm.

Fri early hours.

February 6

winterof79

Exactly, there is nothing better and I will still be the same when I'm 80!

Latest GFS is fine.

I'm knackered, goodnight all.

February 6

Had Worse

Lol, I was just posting this if anyone wants an early snow fix.

From the 31st minute onward it goes truly nuts!

February 6

2 minutes ago, The Northern Ramper said:

I awoke for my paperwork to a foot of untouched snow. Awesome

Amazing!

February 6

All the models I can think of at 9am & 12 noon for Thursday.

WRF

HARMONE

AROME

ARPEGE

ICON

ECM

GFS

February 6

Kasim Awan

The Met think so too.

The Wirral's best setup is this and normally Liverpool's too.

February 6

Chris.R

Yeah, I remember waking up early hours to torrential rain and thinking oh well nevermind, woke up to it being eerily quiet and got the shock of my life when opening the curtains. Surprise snow is always the best.

Joe Snow

Nice one, great timing then

February 6

Joe Snow

That Winter was actually very good here, however, we then went 5 years without.

Others that year...

27th Feb 2018.

Then, 8th March 2018.

Did you get anything then?

February 6

Joe Snow

Here's that setup Joe

February 6

ECM

February 6

russwirral

Yes, although rare, these setups are probably number 1 for here with the Cheshire Gap setup 2nd. Our deepest snowfall has always come from the Atlantic pushing in with SE winds.

February 6

Weather-history

Some quite eye catching charts there!

10-19cm of lying snow for the Wirral from their hi-res model, not sure about that lol.

Interesting isotherm too.

They seem quite bullish about the medium term also.

February 6

@Jackski4

Further ahead looks cold too.

Although there is still some uncertainty, conditions slightly more-likely to be drier and more settled overall with lighter winds, from a more N'ly or E'ly direction than usual. This increases the likelihood of cold conditions developing more widely with an enhanced risk of fog and frost, alongside wintry showers almost anywhere, but perhaps most-especially near E or N facing coasts. There is still a risk (albeit lower than climatology) of Atlantic frontal systems (and less-cold conditions) bringing rain across parts of the country now and again, especially the W/SW but this would likely bring a longer period of snow somewhere.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Tue 6 Feb 2024

February 6

Jackski4

Exactly, I normally post in there but I've not bothered recently as don't see the point and I can see why some experienced members have moved on over the years.

I'm just going to focus in here from now on.

February 6

Jackski4

The above ties in with the potential cold moving in from the east as per Met.

11th - 20th

UK long range weather forecast

Remaining unsettled initially with further rain and hill snow across the far N, elsewhere a mixture of sunny intervals and rain showers. Thereafter a trend toward more settled, but likely cold conditions is favoured with snow showers tending to focus on eastern coasts. Elsewhere, a decent amount of dry weather, but with some hard overnight frosts and a risk of ice. Again milder air may try to encroach from the Atlantic, bringing with it the usual risk of rain turning to snow as it encounters the cold air, but this very uncertain. Windy at times, especially in the E at first, with a notable wind-chill. Temperatures generally in the range rather cold to cold, especially across the north.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Tue 6 Feb 2024