Day 10
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Modelling systems
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK
Numerical models are at the heart of our forecasts and products as well as much of our research and development.That's if it reaches us, nervy evening runs coming up.
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The latest Met Office run which updates the apps hourly has this, the front is definitely slowing up as we edge nearer.
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Well according to the latest Arpege, nothing mate as the bulk of the snow is now struggling to reach Manchester. Horrible feeling about this now, starting to feel like a few years back when it corrected south 20-40 hours out.
Fizzles out over us...
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Hmmmm, the very latest run in the Arpege has slowed the front down by quite a bit.
0z on the left.
The bulk of the snow stays in the Midlands and Wales, surely this cannot be happening again. The front has stalled.
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The text to go with it.
Reason for update
Warning extended to cover Northern Ireland while the southern boundary has been moved north. Start and end times adjusted.
A band of rain, sleet, and increasingly snow, will push north on Thursday bringing up to 2cm snow at lower-levels, 2-5cm on ground above 200m, and perhaps as much as 15-25cm above 400m, along with a risk of some icy conditions. The snow will ease later in the day, and may turn back to rain or drizzle, especially in the south and east of the area. There is some uncertainty with respect to the rain/snow boundary, and the northern limit of the snow, and so details may change in the coming days as confidence increases in these aspects.
The bold bit is bound to upgrade to amber tomorrow.
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I'd be surprised if some amber warnings for higher areas didn't appear this morning (for Thurs).
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The Met Apps for here which started at 11c for Thurs a few days back have gone 11,9,7,5,3 and the latest is now 2 with snow symbols instead of sleet, a sign the mild air might not push through as quick as the models have been predicting.
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The second pulse has definitely shifted south for Friday, some areas could actually see 2 days of snowfall.
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Yes, it does seem to have slowed down at touch as we get nearer which is great.
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All good this morning.
The Met:
The word rain removed for Thurs or most of it
Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:
Turning unsettled again to end the week with blustery winds. Uncertain arrival of some snow on Thursday, potentially disruptive in places, then outbreaks of rain lingering into Friday and Saturday.
Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 6 Feb 2024
WRF
Plus there are already tentative signs the second push on Friday won't get as far north, one to watch.
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GFS looks ok too with a decent period of snow for many, just need it to stall now between Cheshire & Carlisle
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Back on phone but icon looks ok.
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Interesting read as always.
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Yes definitely, I viewed from afar for a number of years before joining in 2015, really good back then.
Our thread ain't bad at all though
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The mod thread was much better 5 years ago.
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It gets very messy after Thurs, I wouldn't bother looking much past that at the mo.
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There appear to be 2 pulses of snow, so there's something for everyone!
Time for the second one to elongate and flatten out to stay more of snow too.
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Cheers, nice one
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That's ace, it looks like an asteroid has just hit, with a photo snapped just before the heat wave hits to frazzle everyone.
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Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards
in Northwest Weather Discussion
Posted
ECM 6z