coldcomfort
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Posts posted by coldcomfort
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These could of course be wrong, but still nothing in the way of warmth showing up across the next 10 days, let alone any heat. In fact temps are shown to be at or below normal for 90% or more of the UK ... http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
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So what has changed? Not a great deal. We have simply lost the Iberian upper trough enticing a proper system to establish down there and drive a plume ahead of it. the low ejects ne in the general flow of the jet and the heat is flattened to our south as will always happen without any decent amplification. I suspect gfs is currently too miserable on this system and it will be further west and shallower. Instead of heat, we get pleasant early summer temps and plenty of sunshine with it. Some decaying frontal systems crossing sw to ne.
Will the following episode dig the trough and drag some heat up?
ECM will suggest just that, whether we should fall for it though is another matter entirely. Once bitten twice shy might be the term, but we've all been bitten far more times than we care to remember on here, both with Beasterlies and Iberian heat pumps....taking nothing as read once again.
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Any warmth (let alone heat!) is conspicuous by it's absence across the next week or so according to this.... http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
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Tamara made the most important point: whatever happens to the details, things are set to get warmer...
And others have made the equally important points that it couldn't really get any colder, nor any more volatile that the coming 48hrs and warmer/wet is not really of much use to anyone. My view of it is apart from the first few days of the new month things don't look overly poor going forward, with plenty more dry weather than wet on offer,
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Well out to 180hrs the GFS maintains it's downward trend, in fact the 180 itself kind of demonstrates what we see so often in the winter, i.e if there is a way for things to go wrong we somehow manage to find it with monotonous regularity. Phantom LP to the SW appears to have been the dream maker in this instance, with LP now looking set to be right back over us again come this time next week.....aaaagggggghhhhhh!!!!!!
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PM... I said 'Given the kind of charts we've seen across the last 48-72hrs the overnight runs are disappointing at best and downright awful IF compared with the recent stellar offerings.'
I standby that statement and am certainly not getting carried away in making it....it's all about opinions and that's mine.
Let's see what the 06 brings, but imo it won't be a million miles from it's 00 counterpart.
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The only thing banked is that it will get warmer. It will. also, there will be a build in euro heights. There will. Also that we will find ourselves in the action zone between the heights to our ese and any Atlantic troughing which could be courtesy of an Iberian trough (in which case it will be v humid and hot). the models are simply paying out alternative solution as the time ticks down and they get a lead on disturbances which were not able to be picked up by the higher res of the ens. that always happens. the ops may well prove to be wrong at a 6/7 days anyway. I'm just going to be happy to be out without a jacket on (if it's dry of course)
Agree with this BA, but in all honesty that would probably be a given going into June considering just how cold it's been and still is.....it's hardly anything worthy of major celebration imo. Given the kind of charts we've seen across the last 48-72hrs the overnight runs are disappointing at best and downright awful IF compared with the recent stellar offerings. As CS has just said the Jet does look likely to me much stronger than expected, so imo all bets are off once again (despite my optimism yesterday), with warmer but still inherently unsettled just not floating my particular boat.
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And having consulted Mystic Meg and in anticipation of some posts this morning a quick look at the GEFS anomaly for00.
Not sure they will be too many post this morning given the latest GFS and ECM runs, no doubt most will hold fire until this evening in the hope they prove to be nothing more than an extended bad dream, though some may re-emerge after the 06 if it looks better....
I think the one thing they do say is never assume anything in this game!-
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I don't see how you can say that when the models have been consistently postulating the pattern change for weeks and imho they have done a pretty good job. The detail always comes down to the shorter time frame. Watching every ops run whilst ignoring the evolution of the upper air analysis creates the impression of mayhem which actually doesn't exist.
I don't see how you can say that when any change is still yet to happen, indeed if it all goes **** up from here history will show them to have done an abysmal job, so best not get too far ahead of ourselves even now. Up until yesterday UKMO were not fully onboard at 144hrs re the pressure rise and 24hrs before that they were positively against it, hence my increased optimism this morning.
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Yes some very promising/strong signals from all models this morning for a warm/very warm and potentially hot spell to develop by the end of next week. As Cap't rightly puts with all the ingredients for some powerful thunderstorms. Very interesting model watching coming up over the next few days as they firm up on detail.
Indeed PM....much more consistency in the overall output across the last 24-36hrs and with the changes now getting into the reliable timeframe my possible has been upgraded to probable. Exactly how things will manifest themselves however remains rather unclear, but we do at least look in line for some long overdue warmth if not heat, so even in the rain it shouldn't feel particularly unpleasant.
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Seems to me summer blizzard that the ecm wants more the high pressure in charge, wheras the gfs isn't as enthusiastic to build it as indicated by the 8-10 day mean chart:
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
Given the recent record I'd say ecm are the most accurate on this.
Let's hope so, because the 06 GFS is another 'jam tomorrow' run....actually, make that 'the day after tomorrow', with any robust rise of pressure now back outside the 240hr range.
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I agree there, On the other side of the coin it could be even hotter than currently model'd.
I'd love to think so PM, but I'd say that's the rank outsider as things currently stand.
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The 00 ECM is indeed a gem, but I think we all know it's just as unlikely as the GFS is to verify as shown post 144hrs. My guess is we will probably end up with some sort of hybrid of the two, whereby after a couple of decent days nationwide the north enjoys the best of the dry, settled weather, whilst thundery rain/showers and cooler conditions return to the south.
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dunno what charts you are looking at sir... the ecm and gfs currently have the 10c upper isotherm across us by next weekend... thats hot and humid... some thunder?.. yep.. isnt that what youd expect in 'summer'?
but the chances of a large anticyclone look in doubt now. although pressure appears higher, and thats as good as nailed, the models are struggling to define the nature of this build. the noaa 8-14 day anomaly doesnt evolve the +ve into something more substantial. in all... a mess!
(connection probs, cant post charts atm)
Firstly Rob, I said at the time of posting I'd not seen the 00 ECM. Secondly UKMO at 144hrs shows little if no pressure build, in fact we have an Atlantic LP and it's associated frontal troughs moving in and thirdly, yes GFS is warmer, but LP is shown as the dominate feature across the south in particular after the 4th.
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Little if any sign of summers arrival later next week according to both UKMO and especially GFS, which eventually brings LP up from France and delivers some very heavy, thundery rain. Will await the ECM before trying to draw too many conclusions, but all talk of fine, very warm and settled weather developing as we move into June looks to be on increasingly shaky ground this morning.....as it has for the last few mornings to be fair.
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As yesterday and Tuesday, the 06 GFS remains firm both with it's timing and evolution of the potential change, but any genuine warmth, perhaps heat does remain the preserve of southern areas as we close out next week.
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i fully agree .
i can understand the caution some posters are expressing, but from next wednesday onward theres consistent agreement across all data sources that pressure will rise from the south, gradually, to herald a spell of settled, dry, sunny and warm weather. ill be happy with that this early in summer! heat can come later (assuming we dont all get it this time).
it also makes the coming fresh, unsettled and wet weather necessary if we are heading for a dry spell.
Still need to wait for the currently updating ECM, but the latest GFS remains encouraging whilst the UKMO at 144hrs does not looks anything like as promising.
Edit: ECM looks just about OK for the south post this time next week, but much of the country remains relatively unsettled up to the weekend, especially the far north and west.
Still nothing fully set in stone yet imo.
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Evening Guys and Galls ! If you need patience on a developing settled spell then look away, we are no further forward than last night quite honestly...Gfs keeps the phantom settled spell a real mess by day 9 and its a Bingo high from the ecm at day ten.......still no further forward, but this is my thoughts only.....and no offence to anyone who thinks different......
I think you are spot on...as it frustratingly appears was my previous carrot and stick analogy. Whilst any major change remains stubbornly in the 8-9 day range it's seems rather foolish to assume anything imo, but hey ho, that's just an opinion.
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12 GFS rolling out, hopefully by 8pm we will at least be a little closer to knowing whether this is the 'done deal' many suggest it is, or just another twist of the knife in the gut of those of us wanting to see the arrival of summer. Eyes down, here we go...
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The 3rd seems to be the baseline, the GFS yesterday for a time was suggesting the 2nd, which no other model went with.
Ties in with the GFS ens, the ECM suite being the one which is slowing the progress north of Euro heights.
The ECM seems to want to find any route to re-establish heights over Alaska and is doing with by sending WAA from the Russian ridge straight across the pole, as such forces the jet southwards again counteracting the other forcings going on, hence the transient ridging affair seen on the ECM operational.
Lets hope the GFS is in the right here for once, though it has been a theme this year so far that the most pessimistic model ends up being closer to the truth (a couple of weeks back we saw a potential plume event which the much maligned GEM refused to back and was proven correct).
Indeed CS....therein lies the one near constant, if only the most optimistic model always ended up being closer to the truth, this model watching game would be a completely different and much more enjoyable/less stressful one...
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Well having plucked up courage to view the 06 I'm happy to see no further delay in the pressure rise from the south next week, in fact if anything it's been brought forward a little, but I seem to recall the 06 yesterday was also pretty much along these lines. Will see what both the 12 runs from the big 2 show later, hopefully a similar if not better/quicker evolution to summer.
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Maybe all the models will suddenly get a handle on the change and bring it forward to 5-6 days or less. This certainly seems to happen in the winter months, so no reason (is there?) for it not to happen late spring. BBC have said that weather likely to improve etc next week too.
Maybe, but equally they could continue to delay the change and eventually water it down even more...that is just pure conjecture. Things will improve, of that there is no doubt, but the speed and magnitude of the change still remains very much open to question this morning - with imo rather more uncertainty than has hitherto been touted by many on here.
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A better ECM op and the trend previously shown comes to a halt. The alsakan heights dropped away and with them, the troughing to our East which allows the ridge to push across. More evidence that the more settled set up will verify.
I agree, it's not or never really has been a matter of if, just when...but that can be said about the weather at any time to be fair. Bottom line for me is on Monday morning the change was shown as being 8-9 days away, yesterday the change was shown as being 8-9 days away and today the change is shown as being 8-9 days away. Until we can break this pattern of daily delays, I will remain as previous, i.e cautiously optimistic and no more.
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Well here we are another 24hrs further on, but any improvement remains stubbornly stuck in the 8-9 day range, i.e too far away for any confidence whatsoever. This already has all the hallmarks of a classic carrot and donkey pattern change imo, whereby the summery carrot always remains tantalisingly out of reach....at least for now.
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I think the one thing they do say is never assume anything in this game!
Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Still amounts to pretty much the same conditions across the UK though CS, i.e rain/thundery rain moving east on Friday, with much cooler, fresher and initially showery weather returning from the Atlantic.