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Everything posted by Fourty Point Three Degrees
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Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
But the GFS 00 does look like a shocker for late July. In fact you can't polish a big brown one. Why do people here always have to belittle others just for saying what a model run is showing when its unsettled? I bet you wouldn't have said anything if the poster said it was heatwave, sunny and hot next week? Fact remains, no matter the positoning of the trough its looking largely cool and unsettled at least for the next 10 days. -
Summer 2023 chat
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Isn't it always 40c plus in Southern Europe? -
Summer 2023 chat
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Anyone else cancelling holidays because of the European heat or is it just the media creating panic and feeding the snowflake generation?? Quite sure there have been far hotter heatwaves down there. -
Summer 2023 chat
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Summer 2023 chat
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
June 2007 was a warm month though similar to this year. Just like then, we are stuck in a rut with no hint or sign of a way forward, at least this year we've managed to avoid the floods so far. -
Summer 2023 chat
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
At the end of the day (a crap fest day) we're just a tiny island off the Atlantic ocean and right now we are just being a tiny island off the Atlantic ocean. Vibes of 2006/2007 , with 2022 being the 2006 and 2023 being the 2007. Soon be September a month when the Atlantic takes a slumber and the Jet stream quietens down. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Summer 2023 chat
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I think Summer has failed to install correctly. And is stuck at a certain percentage and only way out is closing down the system and performing a fresh install from scratch, possibly reformatting all drives first. Because waiting for a failed install to complete is never going to happen... Roll on Winter 2023....Summer is officially now written off in my book. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It is most certainly guaranteed we won't be tapping into the current heatwave in Europe anytime soon. No sign of any heat coming our way or any warmth of any kind for that matter. -
Latest GFS 0 does offer a glimmer of hope with a push of the Azores but its day 10 range so lets hope its sniffed out a pattern change and not going to be pushed back.. I can't believe just four weeks ago we were laughing at troughs at day 10 being pushed back and back saying they won't happen, just ignore and how it all looked 2018'ish. It's just amazing how quickly the pattern can suddenly flip.
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Yes i forgot about June being warmest on record, where on earth did that come from? Out of nowhere... You'd expect the warmest June on record to be part of a classic hot and dry summer not one that's looking like a write off. Julys highest CET and Augusts were all part of memorable hot summer times.
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The trend on GFS 0z is dreadful. Below average right through to the end of the run which takes us roughly to the end of the month. Never seen a GFS that is so fixated on delivering below average temps. Why can't we ever get stuck in a rut with above average temps for the foreseeable why is it always below?
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Its a dreadful run it must be said. That bullseye green blob just sits over us for days and goes nowhere and the op remains right below the average. A poor first half of July on the cards if this run verifies. However lets not whisper 2012 in case it triggers the usual suspects .... plenty of scatter in ensembles offering a warm up so nothing is nailed down.
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Summer 2023 chat
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
After days and days of 21c plus here, now stuck in mid to high teens for the foreseeable.