Fourty Point Three Degrees
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Posts posted by Fourty Point Three Degrees
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4 hours ago, johnholmes said:
How about we show some realism?
It is the 7th July=24+31 days of meteorological summer let alone the early part of September.
Granted none of the models, be they synoptic or anomaly type show any sign yet of any major heat for any length of time. The time to make such statement might be more realistic in mid August perhaps?
some facts on this page
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate-extremes/#?tab=climateExtremes
And do you blame me? And if its realism your after then realism tells me August Is becoming more of a autumnal month than a summer month, bearing in mind la nina picks up this August I think its safe to say we may not see any heat at all. Hope I'm wrong then I'll eat my hat just as long as its made of ice cream!!
j
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5 hours ago, mb018538 said:
I agree knocker, not much to get cheery about....the crumbs from a couple of days ago seem to have been swept away, and we're just left with an unsettled picture out past mid-month. Looks like this summer is just passing us by as completely unremarkable. Could we see no 30c at all this year??
if we don't see 30c this year then its a bit of a long time since there was a year without a 30c, even 27 is looking impossible at this rate.
see here >>> http://www.trevorharley.com/trevorharley/weather_web_pages/hottest_days.htm
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i think this summer will record its lowest max since 1920 the way things are going.
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** PLUME ALERT **
a hot outlier from gfs 06z
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Lots of heat across Spain lately, could this evolve into something more? All we need now is a good Southernly and we get some very humid and high temperatures and some nice thunderstorms. The beeb and MO seem confident in something humid this month. Seems everywhere in Europe will be basking in heatwaves this summer all apart from UK which is quite pathetic
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I wonder if there are any places in the Northern hemisphere that are higher than or at the same level as the UK that are having a better summer than we are?
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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:
Bad news I'm afraid, the GEFS 6z mean looks flat zonal beyond mid July with no hint that the Azores high will build in and even worse than that, the met office signal for a mid / late July pattern change to warmer and more settled has disappeared. If you want heat, probably best to fly well away from the UK this month!
I'm giving up on summer 2016, don't worry there'll be another one in 11 months
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GFS 06z was vile i see no sign of anything we can call summer right out into middle of July, temps below par, even that nice ridge of HP in the south has eroded away as the azores is pushed farther south again. I think we all know why? Because theres an el-nino and la-nina in the house.
Maybe if people didn't believe everything they read in newspapers and think its the 100% gospel truth such as their "90 days heatwave" forecasts then expectations for a decent summer wont be so fuelled so much. I give up.
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1 hour ago, Scorcher said:
Eh? 28C is sometimes our highest temperature, and there have been years when it hasn't been reached at all. We've already got close to that in Manchester though. In an average year you wouldn't really expect 28C here before July.
The 28c I mentioned was actually for the UK as a whole not just for Manchester, so looking ahead on the model runs ending mid-July and I see no sign of any such temps for the UK as a whole, I cant even see temps into the mid-20s let alone 28c, should've had somewhere in the UK officially hitting 28c by mid-july.
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thanks for replies and links
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is there a site anywhere where I can view old charts/daytime maxes from Summer 1976?
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gfs 06z was a nightmare if your a warmth lover, temps for the Manchester area at around 17c right out to the end of its run. At this height of summer there should've been a decent 28c by now.
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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:
Will the Azores high move towards the UK next week? its possible
I wonder what the 'punishment' weather we will get for this?
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I dont see anything positive in them charts, all i see is straw clutching.
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what so far has been the hottest day of the year so far? Id like to compare stats against the summer that has had the lowest daytime max in any one summer? I know a few years have failed to reach 30c, think the last one was 1993.
if these runs come true then weve reached mid summer and still not yet had a 28c
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this time ten years ago we'd be basking in 27c sunshine for a fifth day running, with a slight cool down in coming days with a brief trough then a whole July of sunshine and heat to look forward to. Where are them days gone?
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heres the 18z chart for 3pm on 1st July, showing the temps - just a poxy 12c in Manchester ON THE FIRST OF JULY! !!!!!
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Scarfs and gloves for Wimbledon then!!
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we cant have a summer without a brief autumnal week or so. Remember the autumnal first week of July 2002 ??
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Something ive noticed when watching beeb forecasts is whenever they do a US forecast they always use both *C and *F on the map yet never do they use *F elsewhere just the US. Any reason for this?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/36590921
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10 hours ago, markyo said:
Looking like first half of july is no go for any heat,warming maybe but to much atlantic influence,this could prove to be a very poor summer i'm afraid. Not good.
Agreed! Too much wishful thinking going on here. La nina isnt supposed to start kicking in from August and I think we're slowly migrating into that territory already. I see a damp and wet summer full of thundery warm plumes . I'm worried this year will be absent of a 30c and statistically speaking we are long overdue a summer when 30c isn't reached.
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What an awful 12z and an awful contrast on the temps next week. It has mid to high 20s in the South yet places just north of Birmingham struggle to reach 18c. Then heading into July its going to feel much like December 2015 as temps all round are in the mid teens.
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id ignore the 00z - ensembles mean is much cooler and follows the zonal cooler ECMs
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Anyone know when we last had a 30c before the solstice or could post a list of years it happened? It must be 7/8 years since the last 30c so it must be a record now the longest period without a 30c pre solstice. Hope someone can confirm stats with a list, thanks
j
Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
gfs 12z is looking hot next weekend as we get a taste of the Continental climate and into the following week too. Still plenty of time for it to evolve into something better, I will contain any excitement for a few more runs as most of the heat will probably end up being shunted off eastwards . The Azores HP cant give up though I just hope it keeps on nudging northwards until it pushes the current pattern out of place.