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GEM in the latter stages looks chilly this morning:

Let’s see how many of us get wiped out of the no rain club tomorrow! Threat of hefty thunderstorms right across the SE, so my 52 day run could be about to go tomorrow!

This chart is just bonkers for late July - when do you ever see a huge blocking high centred that far north in high summer?! No wonder the Arctic circle and Lapland etc is seeing temps into the 90s! Mad summer.

Indeed it does @Captain Shortwave Just another play on a theme, looks quite progressive compared to other options, going to be a nightmare to forecast with any certainty until 2-3 days away!

ECM with a very different slant than the 00z - low much closer, so starting to turn unsettled from the west - very hot and humid in the SE by next Friday.

Interesting that the 12z gfs op was at the bottom yet again....that’s about 3/4 in a row sat well below the mean.

BBC saying 33c maxima Steve - looks about right given the set up, perhaps not enough southerly for a 35c+

6z op was again towards the bottom end of things, with a higher number favouring the plume than not. Still all to play for. Interestingly, Chris Fawkes has just done the lunchtime forecast and said they expect 33c as a maximum next week. Looks like a goldilocks forecast from the output we've seen - not cold (28-30c), not extremely hot (34c+), somewhere in the middle (31-33c). Of course this is all nonsensical - 28c is still hot, 33c is a bake whatever way you paint things.

On the 6z run, which is more high pressure dominated further south and east, a large swathe of southern and eastern England are 10+ days away from anything more than a few splashes of rain, with some places inevitably remaining dry throughout.

6z trundling out and looking quite a bit different to the 00z - comparing the jet profiles around 150 hours they don't match up well at all. Still plenty of volatility going round as you'd expect.

Just to be pernickety - there have been 2 days that have exceeded 35c - 36.5c on the 19th July 2006 (Wisley) and 36.7c on the 1st July 2015 at Heathrow. But yeah, it's not a common temperature to exceed in the UK at all. That trough out west literally has to be in the perfect position to funnel a slack southerly up for 2-3 days to have a shot. It's very much an outside bet at the moment, but one to keep an eye on.

I'm by no means an expert at all - but I'm convinced the major SSW is still having after effects felt and allowing for mid latitude blocking. Polar heights have also been anomalously low with the polar jet wrapped into quite a tight band and keeping the cooler air more bottled up than normal - bit of a chicken and egg situation. I didn't see it coming initially, but once the big heat started to appear in April and May then I was more favouring something warmer and drier than not.....although not quite to this extent. As the stats show, it's been the driest first half of summer on record, and just a fraction (0.1c) off the warmest in 1976. It's been mad.

32.5c June 30th and 36.7c July 1st both @ Heathrow - the month then proceeded to be terrible!

I'm thinking along those lines too @Singularity - the upper ridge over scandi is one of the strongest ever recorded, perhaps the models are trying to erase this a bit quickly. The Atlantic conveyor may encounter more resistance & inertia than thought. Personally, I'm not too fussed about mega heat. If it can hold out as just plain old hot until the month end and give us a shout at either the hottest month on record or somehow 20c CET that would be more noteworthy! All depends on where the heat boundary sets up....if it holds back west then perhaps a shout. After that August can do what it wants, pour with rain for all I care! It will have been the best June & July combination I've had in my lifetime.

ECM is fine - just as UKMO was a bit on the low side and now looks hotter today, ECM has gone from the very hot down to just hot....it's only run to run variations that's all. The general picture hasn't changed overnight. UKMO looks better as it has a sharper Atlantic trough scooping up more heat....but ECM is warm enough.

Well any notion of a plume has always been aimed at the back end of next week, and would you believe it (not really), the GFS charts you have chosen to post are bottom of the pack for the 00z, well below the mean and a cold outlier: I think I'll take the met office guidance: UK Outlook for Monday 23 Jul 2018 to Wednesday 1 Aug 2018: On Monday and Tuesday the northwest of the UK is likely to see cloudier conditions with some rain and drizzle at times, especially across western hills. Elsewhere it should be largely dry with sunny spells and light winds, chiefly across the east and southeast, although central areas could have the odd shower at times. Looking further ahead a west-east split in conditions is likely to develop, with eastern areas being drier, more settled, warm and increasingly humid, but always with the risk of isolated showers or thunderstorms. Further west it may be more changeable and breezy with some outbreaks of rain or showers, but also some drier interludes. Temperatures nearer normal in the west, but generally warm elsewhere, with hot or very hot conditions at times in the east. Add in the NOAA anomalies: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php over your not-so-thinly veiled hatred for summer heat. It's fine, it'll all be over before you know it!

Eh? That not 'plumey' enough then?

Ukmo and gfs both showing the sharp trough out west again today - meaning the back end of next week towards the weekend is once again showing the potential for 35c+ When you thought this summer couldn’t get any more bonkers....we may not have seen anything yet.

Interesting that one knocker. Finland had its hottest country-wide day on record yesterday, average temp 24.1 smashing the old record of 22.4 by miles. Lapland county at 70N recorded 33.4c as well, another record. This ain’t no ordinary heatwave.

The good news for you in your neck of the woods is that the bbc long range forecast has maxes at 31-32c for Monday. Enjoy!

The 38.5c in 2003 had the still airmass, plus 850s over 20c:

Ecm out to 240 and another one for the bank and a big step towards the first 20c CET month. Amazing.

As above, ecm holding firm, I think ukmo is a bit pessimistic really. The options towards the end of next week are frightening really.

Yep, as others have said it’s a maximum in that 12 hour period. Ridiculous either way, but if there’s going to be a year to make another run at 100f, and a crazy 40c, then it’s 2018. Western Europe is one big bake this summer.

Just as you shouldn’t get too down on the ukmo run, equally you shouldn’t go too overboard with the gfs run - which will undoubtedly be a hot outlier. As we’re going to be right on the battleground between the cool and hot air, expect wild run variations as were getting from run to run.