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12z runs looking nice in the short term, but both gfs and gem start to turn unsettled by day 10 - as said earlier, this is the first time in quite a while we’ve seen anything unsettled appearing at 240 and under, so it could mean that we finally see an end to the settled spell by mid month. In the mean time, enjoy the lovely weather!

I certainly agree - there's every chance to say it stays settled for even longer. I think it's just a bit premature to start saying all of July is going to carry on in the same vein, especially when the best performing model is starting to have a wobble. It will all depend on how the Iberian/Biscay trough plays out into next weekend and beyond.

Not sure what those guys have been smoking - that's certainly not the case at all... Our trusty ECM clusters are back! Strong ridge at 144 hours, with a few quibbles about it's position: Still strong at day 8: Signs of slight weakening at day 10 emerging, though still ridge dominated: By day 13 we are seeing everything flattened out: By day 15, 100% of ensemble members going unsettled: So....we're looking good until the middle of the month, then things could start to go downhill afterwards. Certainly not set in stone yet, but the ECM ensembles have shown high pressure losing influence around mid month for a couple of days now.

Not sure I like the progression from the ECM 192-216 hour chart: Seems to drain the strong heights away very quickly! GFS (below) keeps the high in situ between 192-216, so let's hope that is the actual outcome.

Looking amazing again today. Very warm to hot through the weekend and into next week, Some places are still looking at day 10+ for any rain....the GFS ppn charts do show some big spikes in the south at the end of this week, but these are all thunderstorm based, and may not happen at all. Most places will just stay dry.

Very true - sadly the Synoptics needed to deliver exceptional heat in the UK often result in a breakdown very soon afterwards. Pressure patterns like we are seeing now will deliver slightly lower temperatures, but last much longer with a big area of high pressure. the ecm mean is again trying to pull everything west by day 10, so I’d say there is a small risk of a breakdown from mid month onwards at the moment - one to keep watching over, as this could change greatly in the coming days as the cut off low gets modelled and resolved better.

Looks like going mega toasty in Iberia - parts of Spain and Portugal have 850s nearing 30c - you’d expect the usual hotspots like Seville/Córdoba to be going north of 40c into next week!

Good to see ECM sticking to its guns - turning increasingly warm through the weekend and into Monday. 30c+ once more, much better than the ukmo

UKmo 12z tapers the heat somewhat, with 850s only around 6-8c - so more mid twenties and comfortable. gfs goes mad and turns on the burners, probably somewhere seeing 35c if that comes off!

It's quite unusual to get the polar jet wrapped that tightly around the north pole without and meanders! Indeed, hence the differing ppn spikes - some non existent, some very big, depending on the ensemble member. The BBC etc aren't forecasting much, so I think you'd be more likely to miss one than catch one at this stage.

Bournemouth past 30c once again, so another day where we have exceeded 30c in this hot spell. Currently 28c here.

Fairly big warm outlier (as expected really). Interesting that by 7 4/5 of the 20 members really kill the heat off with a sharp drop in 850 temps. Of course that still leave 15 members at or above the average - still the form horse, and the solution you'd have to favour.

Could be a response to strengthening trades? A long way off at the moment though, this could change nearer the time.

I reckon we will see a 31c somewhere again today. Just as an aside, any idea what's happened to the ECM cluster ensembles? They seem to have stopped since the 28th June!

There is still a slight ECM bias towards pulling the high back west rather than east, so if it's really extreme heat you are after, you are likely to be disappointed for now! Also, there seems to be yet another Iberian/Biscay trough developing out by day 10: How many times have we seen this set up already this year? Very peculiar!

Great output again today. Another big anticyclone parked over the UK by next Sunday. Temps in the south around the 30c mark again. Most places except the far north of Scotland will be warm anyway. GEM takes the heat up a few notches as we head into days 6-10 Back over 32c/90f seems inevitable into the second week of July if you ask me.

As others have already pointed out, due to high lapse rates/bone dry ground etc we aren’t needing huge uppers to pass 30c. They may only be around the 10-12c Mark next weekend, but it’ll be more than enough. The state of the summer so far means that if we did get a proper full on southerly plume soon we could be looking at something very high indeed.

ECM looks great again. BBC long range forecast tonight showing 30c again in the E/SE next Sunday, so there’s not really any let up in the heat wave. Barely a drop of rain either. Some places are going to go from a 0mm bone dry June until at least the 10th July and possibly beyond now....which is slightly worrying!

It won’t be that high - Synoptics don’t translate to that at all. It’d be mid to high twenties, with the odd place ticking over 30c. We’d need 15c+ uppers to be hitting 35c

I think the 500b heights may be misleading you there - the darker reds don’t just translate to more heat sadly. It’ll still be very warm though!

I know we didn’t quite make 30c yesterday, but the London area has breached it once again today. Remarkable spell of heat.

Think you may be getting confused! Northern blocking is the last thing you want in summer - and we definitely don’t have that at the moment! It would generally lead to the opposite of what we’re getting - low pressure, cool and unsettled. With low pressure around the pole as we have now it helps to allow high pressure to build further north and keep us settled and warm.

Not much change this morning - ECM still looking wonderful for more summery weather.

Ecm is perfect at 168, good after. I’m nitpicking as the high pulls west a bit and yet another easterly sets in. If it could just park over the UK that would be ideal! Either way it’s staying very warm or hot depending on where the high ends up. Summer 2018 rolls on and on.

Cracker again, low cloud gone pretty early today, now up at 28c which is par for warmest in the UK. Nice breeze too!