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Hi there, 2nd week of July is waaaaaaaaaaaaay too far off at present to give a forecast. As you say it's currently unsettled over the region, and forecast to remain pretty wet over the region for the next 10 days with a trough parked there. Ironically the best weather is forecast here in the UK for the next 7-10 days. There are tentative signs of the trough lifting out of that area and the weather turning more settled, warm/hot into July, but that's a long way off. Try coming back in a week or so for a better idea.

Also of note, pressure starting to fall as the Iberian trough (which is actually helping this hot spell even happen in the first place) is starting to lurk with menace by the end of the run: Not too far from the SW by 240, with all the heat and the air starting to become unstable to the south, we could see a repeat of a few weeks ago with some big storms. That's a long way off at present, and probably not worth discussing a great deal at the moment. One just to keep a keen eye on.

Yikes, very hot! I'd say 32c/90f would be a certainty there, it'd just be a question of how high can you go! On the face of it, it's quite unusual, as we often only see 850s that high from a straight southerly/continental flow. Just shows how strong that anticyclone is.

ECM outstanding also at 144 hours: 850s up to 16-17c along the south coast, warm or hot across the board really. Looks like everyone is invited to this party.

UKMO this morning = Wow! even better than yesterday, high in the right place, and actually gets hotter with some 16c air coming in. GFS has dropped that mad 12z run and come more into line. Looking like full steam ahead!

Cracking run. Day 6 onwards is going to vary so much between models, as they can’t even agree on the high location by 144 hours. whats most reassuring is that the best two runs tonight are from the best two models - ecm and ukmo. If they say hot, I’m more willing to believe it!

Cracking ecm out to 168, that’ll do lovely thank you!

It’s vile - probably the worst run we’ve seen since this warm spell appeared a few days ago. If we get anything like that we’re going to have a lot of narked off people, myself included! Let’s hope it’s a big outlier. Will check the postage stamps later to see how it compares.

Don’t like the look of the gfs myself, stiff easterly setting in once more could mean a lot of haar again. Hopefully an outlier, something along the lines of ukmo would be ace.

GFS churning out an odd looking run tonight, very different to what we’ve seen....let’s see how it stacks up.

UKMO holding rock steady, following on from this morning with another great run. Most of the UK under 12-15c 850 air, so it’s hot hot hot!

I wouldn’t say it’s an outlier per se, it has other ensemble member support throughout. either way the mean stays above 10c for a significant period of time, so staying warm for most.

I don't get the heatwave dead posts at all? Sure we may not get 31-32c that was shown a couple of days ago, but as we often say, at that sort of range it's never nailed down. We look like we are starting to firm up on maximum temps in the mid to upper twenties instead, sunshine abound. Take next Thursday on the 6z GFS for example: Temperatures widely in the 25-27c range, probably be revised up a notch.. Humidity down in the 40s and 50s, dew points in single/low double figures....it'll feel fantastic rather than oppressive. Loads to look forward to!

The days may be shortening, but for the next 2 months the heat will be increasing! Guess I'm lucky in that while I prefer summer, I like winter as well, so I won't be getting too beat up about the days getting shorter again. Only 4 months until everyone can start panning for gold and looking for that epic cold spell once again.

I'm also not going to get stung like I did last year! We had those 5 days of 30c+, and temps pushed 35c on the 21st June. I honestly thought after that spell that summer 2017 was going to be a corker....July was average first half, then terrible....August was unsettled and 0.6c below average, then September was unsettled and below average too. As good as May (2nd warmest on record) and June (shaping up to be near the best June months on record) have been thus far, no guarantees on the rest of summer!

ECM not as good as the others again this morning, high orientated slightly too far to the west up against that disturbance in SE of Europe - net result is that the higher 850s are lower, and take longer to arrive. Starting to make an impression from the west by midweek, but nowhere near as good as the others this morning. One to watch,

Fantastic runs this morning. The GEM isn't without support either, it's very, very similar to the UKMO chart at 144 hours: GEM 144/UKMO144 Both have 850s of 12-14c across a good chunk of the country, so you'd say a 30c+ looks on the cards for Tuesday/Wednesday/both. GFS also looking decent, so no complaints there either. http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/06/20/12/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062012_240.png Last night's wobbly ECM not really sitting with the ensembles either, so nothing to get worried about at the moment. Won't bother with anything post 10 days, as that's not worth worrying about at the moment.

It’s run by the US navy...probably all had a bit much rum. Seriously though, it’s embarassingly bad at times, really needs looking at. To have such a large chunk of the UK over 100f is ludicrous, even more so with the set up.

ECM still perfectly good tonight, though nowhere near as good as the 00z - a low across se Europe is there that wasn’t on the 00z....so quite a different run in that regard. Heatwave still good to go!

I will agree there cheese, average sunshine hours for London in December is a measly 52 hours. I know it's only really light for around 8 hours a day anyway, but that still gives around 240 hours of possible sun per month....which we see on average 24% of. The winter really drags it down, no wonder people feel so miserable!

Those temperatures look about right to me for the set up. Like you say, you may see a 1-2c increase, but we're not going to be seeing 35c+ (yet!) from that set up, it's just not hot enough for that. 5 days of baking hot temps to prime the atmosphere, and a switch to a straight southerly from Spain would do it. We've got a good starting point in that most places have been bone dry for quite a while now, so we will extract the maximum from any heating.

I feel like I'm stealing @Man With Beard's thunder here by posting these! ECM clusters for a week today - high pressure or high pressure! Not a great deal of difference really. By day 10 a few solutions on the table, none unsettled yet, some very hot. By 360 hours just for fun....high pressure still the most favoured solution, with 70% of members backing it.

This is all true, but the constant 'what if' of the UK weather makes it so exciting! The fact we are constantly searching for the next big weather event makes us all weather mad I reckon. I agree, what would be fun in living in California? Great for the sunshine of course, but you pretty much know every year for about 4-6 months it's guaranteed to be bone dry and sunny. What would the model watching be like? Anyway, despite London having the reputation as being shocking for wind and rain, it's much drier than New York etc.

Yikes....that's for thursday! You'd assume Friday & Saturday would also follow suit with the uppers & pressure profile. Flaming June indeed. Falling nicely around the equinox for maximum solar input!

ECM fantastic once more. Not a great deal to add other than enjoy the upcoming warm weather!