mb018538

Next Tuesday potentially looking quite toasty now - quite a wide area into the mid and higher 20s. Let's see how long into the week it can hold on for. Perhaps a bit of eastern revenge for all the filth coastal areas have had to endure for weeks!

This is sadly true, low pressures can get stuck with a slow jet stream not shifting them away. Let's hope we don't get left in that position.

The mean is ok, but there is a definite trend (even on the mean charts) for the high to start pulling back west towards day 7-10. So no heat wave looking likely, with a chance of those pesky lows having some influence. I'm hoping the lows align slightly better to stop the high retreating.

Oh for sure, with the huge hot USA landmass during the summer its much easier to achieve than the UK. Interesting that the record high there is listed as 37.2c - less than the 38.5c recorded in the UK, when 850s just nudged over 20c in August 2003. It's not as simple as just using 850 temps, but I'd have thought 850s that high would surely be pushing all time records?

Been following this for a few days now... Big heat plume heading north in the USA/Canada....850 temps are forecast to get up to 29c as far high as Edmonton in Canada! At 53 degrees north this is insane...by contrast London is 51 degrees. So it'd be like getting 850s of 29c somewhere in the north of England! This must be close to record breaking?

ECM looks a bit dicey at the end, mid Atlantic ridge and a northerly setting in....hoping those lows push more to the NE and the azores high hold on. GFS evolution looks more preferable - I don't like how the ECM develops the low NE, then as it gets towards the UK it just goes straight to the east and causes problems. GFS keeps it largely out of the way.

Not a bad set of runs at all this morning - the potential for some pretty warm weather into the middle of next week. I'm guessing a few places in the SE may see a 26/27c. https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png Hard to really know what's going to happen with so much ensemble spread. There's already a fair bit of disagreement at day 3/4, which obviously then leads to a dogs dinner of outcomes thereafter. Looks like a day by day approach is going to be needed, plenty of ways this could still go.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/06/14/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018061400_240.png ECM 00z scenarios here - quite a bit different from last nights 12z actually, and not as good. Only 17% truly high pressure dominated, the rest are westerly based with varying strength ridges. http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/06/14/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018061400_360.png Just for fun the 360 ensembles...roughly 60% unsettled with a trough over the UK, 40% high pressure dominate with the low back up over Iceland. So no real trend there.

Ah hello there Mr Azores high, we've been expecting you... http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/runs/2018061400/UW144-21.GIF?14-07 http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/runs/2018061400/UW144-7.GIF?14-07

Another spoiler low being chucked into the mix at 144-192 hours which Is preventing a nice build of the Azores high. It just doesn’t look like it’s going to get the push it needs to move over the UK, and perhaps be kept at arms length by those pesky low pressure systems. Not too bad overall though, could be worse.

Great looking ecm, high generally centred out to the west, but pretty settled and feeling nice in any sun. One to bank in the decent category!

Perhaps things are ever improving and the gap narrowing - that used to be the case. Those stats still show the 12z top of the tree, which it always has been as far as I know!

00z and 12z have 10-20x more land sounding data readings fed in than the 06z and 18z - which is one of the reasons they tend to verify as more accurate. @jam this is also true, the 18z actually used to have around 25% more data inputs than the 12z (generally aircraft data), but it's the lack of ground readings which give it lower accuracy.

Wouldn’t worry too much, the 6z and 18z are pretty much ignored by met professionals due to the lack of data compared with the 00z and 12z runs.

Yikes - that last chart has a max gust of 138kmh - 86mph! Ridiculous for mid June, that's more like a midwinter low! Surely it won't be that high?

I wouldn't worry about finer details at this range....only a couple of days ago it appeared low pressure would be more dominant and we would have to wait for any high pressure influence. If that can quickly change, then charts at D8-10 aren't going to be accurate at all. I always say get the high pressure build in first, then worry about that later.

Decent looking ECM too this morning once that disturbance clears away east into next week. Azores high ridging in, settling things down and warming up. Can't be bad!

Decent looking ecm for sure; Azores high flexing some muscle and keeping those lows away into next week. No heatwave, but some fine weather to be had in places.

Interesting gem keeps pushing the high pressure outlook - you’d have to think it’s wrong now though with gfs and ecm firming up on the westerly based regime. Looking a bit more disturbed than thought a couple of days back, the next thing to look out for is a route out. Ecm is removing the steep thermal gradient off the eastern seaboard in a weeks time, which should hopefully help slow the jet down. What we don’t want then is things to get so sluggish that low pressure near the UK gets stuck. Keep those eyes peeled.

Not a great deal to shout about this morning. It appears the second low coming across the pond later in the week will be more of a player than previously thought, and is preventing the high ridging in for now. We will just have to sit on our hands a while until things quieten down again.

That end of ecm run is so bad, and so different from anything else you just think it can’t possibly be right!

Yikes....total disaster 12z ecm!! So much volatility at the moment, everything from high pressure to low pressure and something in between. But this is pure garbage.

Slightly iffy gfs and UKmo, which have the lows having more influence again this eve. To-ing and fro-ing all over the place! Gem is excellent.

Well the Met are obviously not buying any sort of high pressure building in just yet, the 14 dayer today is saying likely unsettled out to the 23rd at least. Those tentative pressure builds we have been teased with may have to wait a bit longer, they feel the last week of June could see the high returning. The good thing is that the Azores high is poised to build at the moment, not suppressed back like in the terrible summers we have! As long as charts like this don't start appearing (June 2012, top 3 cyclonic Junes on record, one of the coldest, wettest and dullest Junes on record) then we are ok!

Just for fun - the ECM ensembles (albeit these are from last nights 12z runs, todays wont appear until 10pm tonight): At 240: # Roughly 65% ridge dominated, 30% NW/SE typical UK weather, and 5% totally low pressure dominated Out at 360 hours: 37% cyclonic low pressure, 35% westerly ridge based, 28% high pressure ridge. No real stand out choice there, so plenty of options on the table.