mb018538

Just to illustrate the NW/SE split in terms of accumulated ppn for the next 10 days: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018060900/234-777UK.GIF?09-0 Parts of NW Scotland and the fells in Cumbria could receive 100mm+, where as parts of the E/SE corner could see nothing or just 1/2mm. Pretty much your classic UK set up. Expected max temperatures reflecting this too, generally staying in the low 20s in the E/SE, perhaps a bit disappointing at times out west under the cloud and rain.

00z runs aren’t too bad, slightly more westerly based than high pressure based (especially the ecm), but gfs and gem get some warmth through with the ridge. The good sign of the lows aren’t going to the south or straight through the UK...so no southerly tracking jet, which gives chances of the Azores high building in time.

Not bad at all - the Atlantic onslaught could be a non event at this rate, and just a brief brush with the NW. Far too early to be confident yet though.

Much better NH profile there - Icelandic low, Greenland low, no arctic high pressure. Exactly what we need to see for a potentially decent UK summer spell.

Now that's what we want to see....proper Azores high building!

Another day, another plot twist. All of the models this morning are scaling back low pressure influence - now shown to be out to the NW, with more of an Azores ridge meaning it probably won't be that bad, and more of your traditional UK NW/SE split in terms of settled weather.

I would t worry too much about the gfs 12z op, its a cold and wet outlier. General ensemble trends are a better indicator, these are all over the place in the 7-14 day period, so no real indicators yet. Still warm options there, I think we may have to wait another 5 days for the unsettled stuff to start arriving before we know what we might get after.

It's not disastrous yet - I don't think anyone expected just a day or two of low pressure then an immediate rebuild of high pressure - the prognosis was always towards the last third of the month for the next window of opportunity.

Morning, Differences abound today. The Atlantic influence is creeping ever closer, GFS goes full on tilt mode, really ramping up the unsettled weather: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018060700/gfs-0-192.png?0 ECM somewhat calmer at the same timeframe: http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018060700/ECM1-192.GIF?07-12 Plenty to be resolved. https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png Ensembles still all over the place, those very warm/hot runs are still there which is a plus.

It’s to be expected in any year in the UK, you can’t just run through 3 months of summer weather without any unsettled spells, even the best summers have them. The only issue you have is when we start an unsettled spell and it rolls into a second...third....fourth week in a row it seems to set the tone and ruins the summer. I’m optimistic that this won’t be one of those long waits for the return of summer.

Good! I think it was virtually agreed that we needed to get rid of this Iberian trough and easterly flow. Get a good Azores high building, all of our best summer weather comes from this sort of set up. Wipe the slate clean and rebuild something better.

Morning, Although it still looks likely we will enter a period of unsettled weather very soon, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic that it won't last too long. https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018060600/gfs-0-288.png?0 1) There are recurring themes of high pressure showing up in latter parts of the GFS runs (288 chart shown above) 2) Ensembles become increasingly dry into the last third of June, and there are a significant number of very warm/hot runs appearing. 8/20 runs this morning are above average by the end of the run, with quite a few well above. Of course this means there are around the same number below average, but the general average trend is upwards) 3) ECM long rangers showing some pluming, as well as the MetO extended text & knowledgeable posters such as Tamara cautiously backing high pressure to return later in the month. Plenty to be positive about!

It's unfortunate, but it's quite rare in the UK to get an extended period of weather where the west fares much better than the east. It had to end at some point! As others have alluded to, we've flip-flopped with model uncertainty the last few days, and they have started to lean towards an unsettled period again. Not a problem as such - all UK summers will have an unsettled period at some point - its where we end up after that's the key. I take heart from posters such as Tamara saying that teleconnections look favourable for the UK in the longer term, so we will see how things pan out.

OPs this morning aren't great. GFS is positively vomit inducing to be honest. A quick look at the postage stamps, and it doesn't really sit in with the general theme, and is by far the most unsettled (apart from P12 maybe). Looks like a few model headaches ahead though.

Morning all, Runs very similar again this morning with the slack pressure patterns over the UK. I actually quite like the end part of the GFS run today, which makes repeated efforts to ridge the Azores high in: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018060400/gfs-0-240.png?0

Ecm is also fairly benign this evening....thankfully that nasty low that was shown last night looks to be headed into biscay rather than slap bang over the uk. With this set up it just looks like a continuation of the status quo for a while longer.

Don't shoot the messenger! It was merely based on yesterdays output as well as viewing the BBC extended forecast (https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/44344408) which was broadly similar. I'd be very happy if we didn't get any sort of low parked over the UK, they can take ages to shift.

Echo the above, let's hope that disastrous set of runs from last night are kicked to the kerb as it were. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=144&lid=PANEL&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref A quick look at the postage stamps shows that a few runs do still have a trough, but nothing like yesterdays shambles. Perhaps slightly more unsettled, though not especially so. http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018060300/240-777UK.GIF?03-0 The 10 day ppn charts don't show anything too alarming....a little wetter over Northern Ireland and NW Scotland, trending drier the further south you go.

ECM backs up the gfs ensembles....this has come out of nowhere really, a couple of days ago high pressure looked like ruling the roost. Just shows things can and do change at very short notice. Flabby slow moving Low pressure parked over the U.K. is dire, normally what we end up with in the bad summers. Let’s hope it’s just a blip.

Ensembles have also also taken a bit of a nose dive, I think this low has shaken the tree as it were. Turning cooler and more unsettled towards mid month is the trend now.

Sorry, but I disagree there. To me I don’t see an Azores high building in any time soon - I personally see a disturbance meandering it’s way towards us in the next 5 days, which will eventually lead to a more unsettled spell - though not greatly so - more or less a continuation of the last fortnight....more unsettled in the south, better in the north closer to higher pressure.

Ukmo and ecm both have little spoiler low coming into play by the end of next week - could bring some showers or longer spells of rain into the U.K. the gfs op doesn’t do much with it, but plenty of ensemble members have it.

I think the ecm would likely be slightly unsettled, pressure is low enough for showers to form.....Ukmo keeps the warmer feed and pressure that bit higher, and with an ESE feed probably send temps back to the 25-27c range. The good thing is no Atlantic onslaught whatever way you look at things!

ECM is dodgy compared with the Ukmo run! Not looking as warm or settled.

850s aren’t always a good indicator though....people play this game in winter! The North Sea is still pretty cool, so a brisk easterly, especially one set in for this amount of time will inevitably drag a lot of cloud on. Earlier in this spell it was decent here, but the last 2/3 days has been a tad cloudy for large parts of the day. The thing that has made it horrid is the 75-80% humidity we now have, 22c is feeling pretty rank to be honest. Much preferred the other warm spells in April and early May that had gin clear skies and low humidity.