mb018538

SSTs do indeed vary a lot between June and July....take Cleethorpes on the east coast for example. https://www.seatemperature.org/europe/united-kingdom/cleethorpes.htm In June the temperature is just over 12c, this rises nearly 3c to just under 15c by July, so the difference is quite significant - therefore the cloud deck should be a bit less dense than earlier in the year, and not get so far inland.

Lots of headaches around that Iberian trough that will need sorting out - could lead to unsettled weather, not so much, or nothing at all. Big issues to resolve, no clear consensus yet. Let's see those ECM clusters and what they think of the weekend.

Interesting that the met updatebhos morning now says that eastern areas turning cloudier by the end of the week with that easterly. Wonder how far that will encroach inland, from a selfish point of view hopefully not here!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/regional-forecast/uk meto update at 4pm today doesn’t agree, they are still going for fine and settled weather to dominate. Hard to have any confidence this far out though!

Fantastic ecm run once again tonight, one for the bank!

Ecm is brilliant this morning out to 144, really keeping a strong ridge over the UK, and warmer for the whole country. UKMO makes a bit more of the low to the north which squeezes things a bit and starts to introduce cooler air in to the NW.

Looking good for the next 7-8 days, I think we can bank those now. After the weekend it’s very much up in the air, ECM tonight brings the Atlantic in at 240, GFS says Azores rebuild at the same time. Lots of options on the table.

ECM following UKMO quite closely, at a guess it could be Thursday for the warmest day? A very decent week coming up for sure.

I was referring to the core heat plume, which certainly heads west by 144 hours.

Just a shame everything is being pulled out west....if the high was to the east it’d be a jackpot. Still looks decent enough I guess. Looking like eastern coasts may suffer with low cloud by the end of the week.

As expected from that 6z run, not entirely keeping with the ensemble suite...by day 7 its in the lowest cluster, by day 10 its 19th out of 20 members in terms of 850 temps...by day 14 you have a stonking wet outlier ppn spike too. Best chuck it in the bin and wait for the 12z.

That 6z run is pure garbage - breaks down quickly, and no real heat there either. I'd be surprised if it fits well in the ensembles, looks a bit on the cool side to me.

Those all important ECM cluster ensembles....fair to say there's a lot of chaos. Even at 144 hours there's differences. All high pressure based, but with subtle differences that will affect the temperatures. Cluster 1 closely matches the OP today, and that is the slightly more favoured option - but not massively so at 29%. The other clusters look better to be honest. By 192 hours it's a complete mess, and when you tend to see a lot of equally divided clusters it doesn't really fill you with much confidence: By day 10 there are unsettled options starting to appear: Not worth looking beyond here - the clusters are all over the place. Best to get the here and now sorted before worrying about early July.

Very true Frosty - the same rules apply in summer as they do in winter - if you base all of your hopes on a couple of OP runs at day 5/6, then you can often end up disappointed. Things very often change even at this range....you only have to look at todays 00z GFS ensemble: By day 5 you have 850s ranging from anything around 9c right up to 15/16c....that's a massive difference, and will obviously be the difference between high 20s and low 30s. Just sit tight and wait to see some really firm ensemble agreement.

NAVGEM would probably forecast it as 2m temps! It'll be interesting to see the ECM clusters this morning and where they go. I'll leave @Man With Beard to fulfil the honours at 1130ish when they appear!

Don't worry folks, NAVGEM is still going mid thirties for the latter half of the week, and we're close to 100f again by Thursday! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2018062300/navgemfr-8-138.png?23-08

Downgrade yes, but not entirely unexpected - still wasn’t universal agreement on that very hot set up. Anyway, there are still very hot gfs ensemble members, and I’ll guess ecm members too, so it could change again by the 12z

ECM also following suit - while its perfectly acceptable, it’s just not baking hot like yesterday. Warm to hot still very much on the cards, so nothing to get in a fluster about.

Ensembles are a complete mess this morning, it looks like there is a slight trend to develop a bit of an easterly component, as well as keep the very warmest 850s away compared with yesterday’s runs - though obviously still very warm, with the 15c uppers still making a visit. 00z gfs is a cold outlier and doesn’t sit well in the ensembles so maybe best ignored. Everything still looks great, though a notch down on the very hot runs of the 00/12z runs yesterday.

Talk of a 1976 repeat is a tad premature at the moment....nowhere near certain that the heat will last any longer than a week at the moment, and even then it’s not on the same level. Let’s see where we are in a couple of days time. If we’re still seeing heat locked in through next weekend and into July, then some alarm bells may start to sound...

I feel like the BBC are being deliberately coy on how warm it’s going to be....they have fleetingly mentioned 30c, but their graphics keep showing 27/28c more widely. Perhaps they don’t want to potentially have (fried) egg on face yet so are holding back on forecasting 30c+. It’s only 4-5 days away now, they can’t keep hiding!

850s in excess of 16c for a large chunk on Wednesday and Thursday....expect 30c to be breached folks...

Good points made - you do feel that we will exceed 30c though If those charts come off, advection or subsidence....it’s damn hot! I also don’t see anything like 35c appearing, but we will see....a slight switch to a more southerly feed after 5 days of heat could deliver something.

With the hot weather coming up, any idea where this June is likely to sit amongst all time June months? Obviously 1976 is top of the tree, and we're not beating that, but it must be in the top percentage?

GFS 6z turns on the blowtorch! 29c Thursday, 30c+ Friday, Saturday & Sunday Scorchio