mb018538

Load of old rubbish - no date stamp, doesn't correlate with any model output, and why it has a photoshopped 48c put on there I'll never know. The all-time European record of 48c is in Greece, and won't be reached in France.

The weather tends to balance out, so if one place is having one extreme - i.e. us having the heat and very dry conditions, it will be abnormally cold and wet somewhere else. Greece has had devastating floods, and much of eastern Europe has been unsettled for a while now. Iberia has also had a fairly unsettled late spring/early summer with persistent troughs plaguing the area. This cold plunge tomorrow means Warsaw is only like to see 15c tomorrow, very poor for July. West has definitely been best for summer 2018. Scandinavia is also having a record breaking run of heat. Oslo is looking at yet another week of temps in the 28-32c range, incredible really.

For sure, I see my quote at the end of may has been an epic fail too! Who'd have thought all of June would be bone dry, and now what looks like the first half of July too. It wasn't really an issue when I posted that back in May, but another 6 weeks down the line it sure as hell is. Drought conditions for certain, and not just restricted to the usual spots.

Possibly, and if it was still in it's traditional start at the end of June slot, we would have just finished a baking first week, with a hot second week to come. Could have gone down as one of the best Wimbledon tournaments (weather wise) in history.

It’s the hot nights that I don’t really enjoy. Looking like upper teens this week rather than than the 10c or so it’s been here this week. You cant beat a dry, low humidity summer high.....clear skies, not too oppressive, cooler nights....lovely. That’s all about to change!

Extended ECM - outstanding: Massive anticyclone parke over the UK again, which is going to take some shifting. About as good a summer NH profile as you could wish to see for the UK, low heights over Greenland, Iceland & the polar regions:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png Thankfully it appears the OP run was again pessimistic and not really in line with the ensembles. Anyway, ECM is out and it's a belter. Here's the D7 charts: The heat goes on...and on....and on...

A quick look at the 00z runs.... UKMO great, high pressure building GEM somewhere inbetween GFS awful! Can’t help but think it’s barking up the wrong tree here

Sadly, yes. It’s about to turn from nice heat to the usual sticky gloop we are used to for a while.

Only slight nag is that it’s an easterly again! Get rid of the easterly and we’re all good!

Fab UKMO tonight, high pressure back in control by 144 hours. Staying very warm too.

Needless to say the 6z was a warm outlier, as well as a pressure outlier on the pressure ensembles - much higher than he mean etc. not out of the question yet, but at this stage not the favoured solution to get a big anticyclone sat slap bang over the UK

Indeed. The GFS op this morning around that period (5th onwards) is pretty much bottom of the pile - so overly pessimistic I feel. I'd fully expect something much closer to the ECM outcome.

Anyone want to hazard a guess on ppn amounts? Some GFS members go fairly wet towards the end of next week....some such as the OP show barely a trace in the next 10 days. I guess it's going to be very hard to pin down, as it'll be convective showery rain rather than frontal. Some places inevitably going to remain dry, with nothing on the horizon.

Ecm sets up another easterly flow by 240 hours....how many easterlies can we get in one year! Amazing how many we’ve seen in 2018.

Cracking ECM...summer 2018 says full steam ahead!

QUite odd really, as the gfs ensembles show a fair amount of ppn spikes...but the ecm clusters posted earlier show nothing but high pressure?

Belting ukmo out to 144....staying hot until Wednesday at least then!

Also, can anyone more informed than me tell me what that isolated lump of cloud just off the east coast may be? Is it just a convergence zone?

Disappointing to see a lot of cloud bubbling up in this area - which wasn't forecast anywhere? I was expecting another day of gin clear skies once the clag burned away by about 10ish, but since 12 it's been slowly filling with cloud. Looking like it'll be clouded over in the next hour. Still warm at 24c.

ECM clusters are a total mess at shorter range this morning: Different depths and positions of the Biscay low meaning we're not really sure what we're going to get. Here's something you don't see too often, especially at 192+ hours! 100% agreement on a ridge to the NE, no low pressure infringements. No change out at day 10-12 either, staying settled with no rainfall in the offing. Even day 15 still has a strong ridge - no other options, amazing really. Not even a tiny cluster of low pressure scenarios, just variations on a theme - high pressure all the way. Summer 2018 could go into the hall of fame at this rate.

Thanks for these knocker. The only drawback is that the humidity is likely to increase into next week, so rather than the nice dry heat we have had all through this week, we may revert back to some sticky humid weather as next week progresses,

Are you some sort of troll?? ECM day 10 - high pressure building GEM day 10 - high pressure building Literally none of the models are pushing a return to a long unsettled regime.

00z GFS ensembles: Bone dry for another 7-8 days at least, then a fair few ppn spikes appearing. That said, we saw this a week ago when the weekend was forecast to be unsettled and is going to turn out fine and settled instead. ECM is also slightly less settled than the 12z runs from last night: Pressure some 5mb lower generally, though still not bad. Trough mover over the UK by late next week which will finally give some rainfall! Could be some very hefty slow moving showers there with little or no wind around.

Just a selection of temperature charts to shown no end in sight for the heat... http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018062800/114-582UK.GIF?28-0 http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018062800/138-582UK.GIF?28-0 http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018062800/162-582UK.GIF?28-0 http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018062800/186-582UK.GIF?28-0 http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018062800/210-582UK.GIF?28-0 http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018062800/234-582UK.GIF?28-0 Maximums there - 25/26c widely Monday/Tuesday, up to 27/28c in the east Wednesday, up to 30c in the east Thursday, 26/27c widely Friday, 26/27c in the east again Saturday