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mb018538

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Everything posted by mb018538

  1. mb018538
    Hmmm slightly misleading, the ukmo today is still good, but not as good as last nights 12z run - uppers are lower etc. Doesn’t look like any rain is really going to turn up until late next week at the earliest though, and even then it could be a non starter as this weekends ‘breakdown’ has turned out!
  2. mb018538
    UKMO 12z is a stunner - staying hot well into next week! Breakdown? What breakdown!
  3. mb018538
    Might be that this breakdown never really gains much traction, just a slight re-adjustment before high pressure starts to rebuild into July. We will see, but the clusters/anomalies & met update seem to favour this too. 6z op was a wet outlier with regards to the Biscay low, so something more akin tot eh UKMO/ECM solution should be favoured here.
  4. mb018538
    A lot of places are warming a lot slower today in this neck of the woods, but slowly catching up. 24.3c here, gin clear skies once more.
  5. mb018538
    It's also reached 30c already on Merseyside (Woodvale).
  6. mb018538
    All to do with the wind flow of course: http://www.weathercharts.net/noaa_ukmo_analysis/PPVA89.gif?31415 All the air is being scooped up from the south and sent In a NW direction, drying out and warming up en route. There's also a plum of warmer uppers transferring across the UK which is further boosting temperatures in the west.
  7. mb018538
    Some very high temps already today - a few stations in the NW are reporting 27c at 11am. Expect 30c to be easily reached today.
  8. mb018538
    Those met ones will be miles out. There's no way it will only be 24c in London today!
  9. mb018538
    I was also surprised the cloud has burned more from east to west than vice versa. I just expected with an onshore flow it would be the other way round and take much longer to shift. Happy to be proved wrong, as it's meant it's crystal clear here a lot earlier than I though it would be!
  10. mb018538
    It's nice to see a hot spell take in such a large chunk of the country for a change, and not just the south. It was 28c here vs some 30/31c readings out to the W/NW, but to be honest when it gets that hot it just feels boiling hot or boiling hot whether its 28 or 31c!
  11. mb018538
    Have you not seen the ECM? High pressure moving in again at day 10. If there's one model you want to be showing this, it's the ECM.
  12. mb018538
    Things not looking bad at all into the early part of next week, here UKMO and ECM at 144 hours: No washout, and probably not as bad as first feared.
  13. mb018538
    Just checking the satellite I'm surprised how far inland it's come! Even now at 7am it's still moving westwards and not retreating yet. Forecasts have it clear and sunny here by 9am, but I'd be amazed if it clears that fast. It's probably got 100 miles to burn back before it clears here. Let's see.
  14. mb018538
    Exactly, bit of perspective needed! Every great summer in the UK has had some unsettled blips...for all we know we could be back here towards the middle of July in a similar set up with more heat.
  15. mb018538
    If they hadnt moved wimbledon forward a week, then this week would have traditionally been the first week! Think how good it could have been!
  16. mb018538
    Indeed. Make the most of this week folks, things are on the slide into next week! the ecm actually looks decent again at 240, looks like the Azores high is buildings once again.
  17. mb018538
    Well the BBC long ranger tonight is going full guns with the unsettled Atlantic breakthrough into next week... How exactly does that fit in with this from noaa?? Completely different there surely?!
  18. mb018538
    This looks to be a problem to me...by 192 hours you have a major plume of hot air coming off the NE of the states.... This brings about a strong thermal gradient and fires the jet back up (which has been dead for most of the time recently). This could really scupper any build of pressure into July.
  19. mb018538
    Yep, much better than the 00z run. Very different though, so how the low behaves is going to dictate what we get after....plenty to decide. Probably staying hot in many places until Sunday.
  20. mb018538
    Looks like we’re firming up on the weekend introducing some sort lf breakdown - after that it could be anything. Not much help at the moment with the model runs changing so much each time.
  21. mb018538
    Feels fantastic and not too draining today - 28c, cloudless and humidity down at 30%....doesn’t get much better in the UK if you ask me!
  22. mb018538
    While the 6z was a very nice run in the mid term, it was actually a dry outlier.....there are a lot of ppn spikes appearing now, meaning an increasingly large number of ensemble members are bringing the low into play. The 12z runs will be interesting tonight for sure.
  23. mb018538
    27c here, glorious as in pretty much every other corner of the UK. Will we see a 30c today? Couple of 27c observations at Heathrow etc at 1pm, we've got a good 3 hours of heating left. I'm going to say no for today, but we will see.
  24. mb018538
    Yikes, those 240 charts don't look good! That middle cluster is vile. Hopefully higher heights can hold on.
  25. mb018538
    GFS 6z sticking two fingers up at the ECM for the weekend: Very hot again on Sunday if this verifies.
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