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Not much discussion today - I can see why, the charts all look a bit 'meh' to be honest. A bit wishy washy. Low pressure generally up around Iceland and the polar region - which is good for the UK, as it indicates the jet staying to the north. There isn't much of a thermal gradient off the eastern seaboard either (obviously you'd expect this to be decreasing anyway as we head towards summer), which probably means no big lows will be barrelling our way any time soon. Staying slow moving, and probably around or just above average.

There definitely looks be a trend to reset back towards something of a more normal pressure distribution in the next week: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018053100/ECM1-192.GIF?31-12 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018053100/gfs-0-192.png?0 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018053100/gfs-5-192.png?0 Both the GFS and ECM go for an Icelandic low and higher pressure around the Azores by 192 hours. Jet starting to re-align to a more normal position too. Could we finally be starting to break the shackles of the current pattern.

I’ve been keeping an eye on how crazy the warmth in Norway is.... since the 22nd, maximums in Oslo have been: 24/25/27/28/28/28/24/27/30 the forecast maxima for the next 9 days: 29/30/31/31/28/26/24/28/28 Surely this must be up there with all time heatwaves, including summer months! To get a run like that from mid May to early June is mind boggling really.

Ignore it, just an inflammatory pointless post! Still lots of uncertainty this morning, but overall remaining warm. No sign of any Atlantic breakthrough either, so the split jet and very slow moving theme looks like rolling on for a while longer.

Not sure I like the overall evolution of the ecm tonight, just smacks of low pressure getting stuck over the U.K. for days in the following frames! Thankfully just one run and a long way off at present, so let’s keep an eye out and see what we get in the days ahead. Staying on the warm side for another week looks nailed on though.

Shocking day here, missed the storms and stuck on the edge of the cloud band meaning it’s been overcast, grey and cold with a max of 16c. Now 14c and rank.

everything still looks ok, it just seems like we have been stuck in this pattern forever, I’m guessing some people (east coast dwellers especially) would like some sort of change now!

Well....the high pressure train just keeps rolling on. ECM keeping things mainly settled, and on the warm side again. This is turning out to be quite an exceptional spell of weather.

Quite true....we’re gettinng about the maximum you’d expect from the uppers. 80f+ in May is still good going, maybe we’ve been spoiled this year!

Lovely day here - away from all the action it seems, but if we can’t have the storms I will take sunshine and 26c any day of the week!

Can’t really complain here, slow start....cloud burned off by mid morning to leave a beautiful day. No clouds in sight at the moment, breezy and 25c. Not bad at all.

I wouldn’t say the humidity has been that bad yet either. I mean it’s often more humid in the winter than summer believe it or not - average around 80% I think - but you just don’t feel it with the cold. It only gets to be an issue in the summer when the continent heats up and starts sending moisture our way like the last few days & upcoming. The only bit I really hate is those hot nights that stay at like 20-23c....they are gross for sleeping in.

Easterlies tend to drag in a lot of low cloud.....especially with quit a strong flow as we’ve had this week. It’s blown a long way inland, and taken a while to shift. It’s going to be back again his weekend, let’s see how quickly it buggers off!

Ukmo actually looks half decent tonight, warm air sticking around, and if that low can anchor out to the SW, it could continue to support the feed of air off the continent. When was the last time we had anything off the Atlantic?!

Not surprisingly the excellent 6z gfs run was a warm outlier. I’d be very surprised if we get that amount of high pressure returning. More favoured is the ‘dogs dinner’ outlook of slack pressure patterns and a weak jet stream meaning nothing moves very quickly.

Just having a more detailed scan through the output.....ECM is slightly on it's own, all other models keep the warm air around on Monday and into next week. Perhaps a bit of an outlier - the TV forecasts haven't changed overnight either, so they are obviously still confident somewhere will see 28c. Looking pretty unsettled by midweek though, flabby low pressure and warm unstable air around could result in a lot of hefty showers. Pinning these down impossible at this range. In the longer term it's hard to know where we move from here. I'd say the form horse would be a slow transition to something more unsettled, but this open to debate.

Surprising ecm for sure. We’ve had warm conditions progged all week, for them to vanish at 3 days notice would be a surprise! All eyes on the tv forecasts.

Whatever happens, it’s staying very warm probably until the end of next week now. Pretty amazing spell of weather for May, you’d settle for this in mid July! Hope we haven’t been spoiled early this year and the rest of summer is a washout. The pressure patterns recently have been pretty much spot on for what you need for U.K. warmth. Perhaps a tad less easterly influence if we’re being really picky.

31c was never really an expectation, more a very outside bet - a couple of very warm ensemble members showed 15/16c 850s moving in, but the bulk were grouped in the 10-12c range, which is what we have settled on. Even now the models are all disagreeing on the flow/air mass in the next 4/5 days, and this will be crucial to what we end up with. Still time for change yet!

Don't worry about that...GFS temps are always wrong. It'll be a couple of degrees higher than that, I'm fairly certain there. TV forecasts saying the same.

UKMO is a bit crazy this morning - once the really warm air arrives on Sunday (12-14c 850s), it is now shown across a good chunk of England & Wales out to 144 hours - next Wednesday! Staying very warm and thundery out to the middle of next week then!

Could well be on @Frosty., local anglia forecast has said sunny and 28c here sun/mon....obviously they are backing away from the stormy predictions for this neck of the woods. I don’t think we will see a 30c, but you never know!

this chart is just ridiculous....most dead Atlantic jet ive seen in a long time.

That’s interesting @johnholmes ! To me, I’d say models still undercooking maxima by 2c 6 hours before the event isn’t that great.....but I’d guess that this will improve with time. Met so a fantastic job I should add.

I wouldn't worry too much about computer generated forecasts anyway. On the early May bank holiday it was still showing 27c maxima on the 6z runs of the day it reached 29c! They are hopelessly wrong a lot of the time. Better to watch TV forecasts that have human input in my experience. Some of the hi-res models are much better with regards to temperature accuracy.