mb018538
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Everything posted by mb018538
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Cracking ecm - warm air hanging around all week, temps Into the mid twenties, and the chance of some hefty storms in places if that floats your boat. Lovely stuff!
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The unsettled stuff hasnt totally gone, there is a bit of instability pushing up from the south at 120 and 144 which could spoil things in a few places. Generally settled and pretty warm though, can’t really moan!
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ECM is iffy later on in the run on the 00z....this chart doesn't look great: Looking good though right through the weekend, and until Wednesday & Thursday many remain warm and dry. After this, it's a bit up in the air.
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As you’d expect from the cracking gfs run, it’s right at the top of the ensemble members. Looks like huge uncertainty even at 5 days time, varying temp and ppn spikes.
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Looking warmer into next week, though with some instability in the atmosphere too: Looks like we may get some imports from the near continent with some warm and humid air wafting our way. Very much different to the recent warm spells which have been dominated by clear skies and low humidity. Edit - It's very annoying that you can't expand these attachments! Almost impossible to see!
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It’s not overly bad.... Frontal rain on the NE fringes not really making it, but some instability in southern England and Wales giving a bit of rain. This is still very much open to debate though.
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Hmm, perhaps the first signs of a fly in the ointment today. Disturbance due to run across the country early next week, which could disrupt things later in the week and beyond.
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UKMO is great....GFS 12z completely loses the plot and brings low pressure in very quickly. Hopefully it’s a massive outlier.
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Things do seem a bit different this year after the SSW....I can’t pretend to know one percent of what @Tamara does, but love reading the posts. I can just about make out that we have a better shot at a decent summer this year with everything stirred up since the SSW. Let’s play eh waiting game....but things look ok for now.
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Fantastic ECM run this morning - increasingly settled, dry and warm as high pressure builds. The sight (nearly) everyone wants to see during the summer....low pressure all over the north pole. Stay there please! We should exercise some caution. A few days ago the ECM was showing a massive polar high for this Saturday: That isn't going to verify. Keep those eyes peeled.
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It’s a bit neither here nor there. Happy that it’s staying mostly settled, may be a bit cloudy at times, but better than a washout. Looks like lots of model uncertainty still around.
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Looking good! Happy with that output for sure. High pressure very close to the U.K. for a good chunk.
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Thankfully the horror runs from a few days have gone away, the massive northern blocks have receded away, and it doesn’t look too bad. Never overly warm with where the high is building in from, but pleasant enough for sure.
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The good news is Frosty....although by the end of the run the GFS op is the warmest ensemble member, it's not a total outlier as there are a number of warm runs starting to appear as we head into the last 10 days of May. Mean above average, and not much ppn shown either. High pressure the form horse at the moment.
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Things definitely look better than a couple of days ago. The low pressure isn't now forecast to make much of an impression at all....one look at the accumulated ppn over the next 10 days shows this: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018051100/240-777UK.GIF?11-0 Western Scotland and Ireland wetter as you'd expect being closer to the low, but only 5-20mm widely across the rest of the country. Temps around average.
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That amount of high pressure to the north only usually does one thing - force the low pressure and jet south over us. These sort of set ups can give a lot of rain if lows/fronts get stuck over one place for a long time....hoping for a best case scenario!
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Looks pretty ropey to me with that small low causing headaches. From my experience they can linger for days and give plenty of crud weather for a lot of people. Hoping it’ll do on sharpish!
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Of course, though sadly the weather doesn't work on a credit based system! We seem to have been stuck with a lot of northern blocking during recent summers which have led to some fairly dodgy weather. July, August and September were pretty bad last year.
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The models are all starting to firm up on the idea of a big Greenland/arctic high forming in around a weeks time... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018050900/ECH1-192.GIF?09-12 Never a great thing to see at this time of the year.
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
mb018538 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The heat in the summer can feel much more oppressive with higher dew points and humidity. This has been great for me. Being out in the desert SW in Vegas/Palm Springs the last couple of summers really shows you what the benefit of ultra low humidity is. For me it’s the deal breaker for heat...I could cope well enough with 46c out there, just felt like a furnace! -
BBC long ranger the last 2 nights has said high pressure will build in....I just haven’t seen it on the output at all, all I see is a pesky low like a fly in the ointment possibly making things cooler and unsettled. This mornings runs are similar again....not too sure where they are getting it from?
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards
mb018538 replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
This and the April heat have been very noteworthy for the high maxima, as well as the total lack of cloud. We’ve had a third day of clear blue skies today, April’s heat was similar....shows what a dry airmass and low humidity can do. Fantastic. Got close to 27c in the afternoon. -
Looks a certainty to me SS. I'd guess we will see a 26c somewhere. Low pressure doesn't look like it will barrel across the country either, perhaps getting stuck out west and veering to the north instead.
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I was counting fri/sat/sun/mon/tue as the 5 decent days! I guess that was a tad imby.
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That low looks menacing for mid-may! Tuesday the start of the breakdown, probably just holding on in the east. It’s still another good 5 day settled and warm spell for most. Can’t argue with that.
