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Paul Sherman
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Posts posted by Paul Sherman
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6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
The FAX charts show a convergence zone or twig over SE for 24 hours between Tuesday and Wednesday. One thing for sure it will not be dry.
Oh great just what we need more flooding - Hope the CZ is further south could do with much more drying as the water table is very high (Sorry Medway Boys) but hope this runs through Central Kent lol
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7 minutes ago, m1chaels said:
Harmonie 12z gives lying snow on the South Downs.....
weather model knmi - harmonie-arome model - england - snow accu. [base + 48] [base= 03-01-2021 12 utc]| weatheronline
WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UKWeather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology, reports, weather warning.1st bit of good news for the first half of this week, Euro 4 has an accumulation in the same area.
South Downs could be the place to be
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Lets hope the end of Jan and start of Feb is the next point of Interest for us in the South East and the weather gods balance out the goodies meaning the rest of the Uk can salivate at us getting the snow, key areas to watch over the next 2 weeks is an area from Germany Northwards to see if Northern Europe can cool down for the next easterly shot
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Yes a thouroughly miserable run from todays 12z ECM even backing down further on any hint of snow for the SE and all the way out to Day 10 not a grain of snow in sight. In fact tomorrow if your South and East of the Capital it looks a rough day with rain from 04z tomorrow morning for possibly 12 hours just imagine if this was an area of Snow.
End of the week looks like drying out from the North with temps around 6-7c by Friday
Meh
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5 minutes ago, MAF said:
sledge might be better for you @Paul Sherman
Yh have some important deliveries to carry out in the more Mountanous areas of the South East Mick in the Middle of the week so will take it with me just in case
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Ah ok then will shut up and get the ski's out of the shed ready for next week.
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Genuine Question here
Is it just me who actually think places like Southwold, Lowestoft, Yarmouth, Clacton, Burnham, Southend, Leigh On Sea, Herne Bay etc are in absolutely the WORST chance risk of Snow over the next 3 days or am I going absolutely mad and need to throw away 40 years of Meteorology here ? I am genuingly baffled here what other people are seeing or is it just hopecasting ?
Other places like the North and South Downs, Surrey Hills, Chilterns etc and pretty much most other areas that are above 75m asl are in with a decent shout of seeing Snow in heavier bursts though
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Must admit am very surprised by those Dewpoint readings on XC I am seeing in Eastern Kent, pretty much everyone else has Dps around 2-4c in most of the UK but those readings in Manston, Langdon Bay etc are very good, drier air being advected over from the near Continent maybe
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1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:
Don't know, let's see what happens tonight first, DP s in East Kent are heading negative.
Good luck down there hope things trend the right side of marginal and a streamer can set up. Have remembered loads of times in the 90's when Kent was cut off when all other home counties barely got a flake including Essex so could this be one of those good old set ups
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Lol @ GooFuS
Get in the bin where you belong, why people still love that model is beyond me, as expected its backing down and heading towards the top 2 models in ECM/UKMO
Can we believe in the only model showing snow blanketing the SE starting in 24 hours.............Hmm jurys still out for me but believe what you want to as I know people still think GFS is King. Mesoscale wise with convection it is appalling so lets see if it can buck a trend but am not confident still.
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3 minutes ago, Southender said:
Just made the mistake of trawling through the MAD thread...
”GFS on its own”
“Winter over”
”Relying on SSW”
”Return to Zonal soon”
”Make the most of any sleet this week”
Anyone got any Prozac?
Nailed it - In 6 lines mazing lol
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Just pray and pray GFS is correct as its pretty much that Model against the rest and is showing an absolute snowfest for most of the UK. After a 40 hour spell of streamers like Nick says above away from the coasts it dries out for Thursday before the mother of all SnowStorms from the North and North West, then continues cold with more troughs and low pressure coming down from the north into entrenched cold.
Only problem is none of the other Models are seeing this and after a rainy sleety mess over the next 72 hours they revert back to a more mobile pattern after the end of this week.
Unfortunately I know who my money is on.
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After a peruse at the 00z Models GFS is really pretty much on its own with possible snow Tomorrow Night into Tuesday - The rest are just not having it at all.
All very disappointing really and with 2 frosts since last Sunday looking the likely outcome from these Boom Charts if we have come down to that from the best synoptics since 2010/13 etc then we really are in trouble for winters going forward.
I do love these showery set ups from the east though seen a couple of cracking rainbows already this morning in the Northern Sky might even venture onto the coast near Foulness tomorrow to see if any pokier showers might contain some waterspouts seeing as the Seas around the coast are so warm.
Chin up people and lets hope GooFuS is correct although as I have said before convective wise its an appaling mesoscale model against the others so confidence is VERY low
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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
The models originally just tried to shunt all the energy south, however as now T120-144 has approached so the energy coming south is a bit weaker because theres a wave of cold pushing west- Net net the 2 entities meet over the UK Fri, in order for the UK to get snow from the front edge ( & indeed all a front sweeping down ) we need entrenched cold & ideally sub -6c uppers from the continent > on this run the parameters are satisfied...
Crikey one to watch Indeed
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14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
Brilliant 18z so far to 150
A lot of snow !
Crazy Run Steve
Any views on whats driving the Friday 8th Snowfest on the GFS ? Also seems to be siding with the Met Office;s thoughts from a few days back where attacks from the South could come into play coming up against the established cold pool.
Thoughts ?
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When the 2009 Streamer Hit we did an analysis post on the 4 Types of Streamers to affect our little part of the Planet
1. NNE Is the East and Mid Kent Streamer when showers moved through the Ashford to Folkestone Area
2. NE Affects more areas including parts of Essex and Medway and can also penetrate into SE and NE London
3. ENE is the true Thames Streamer which affect the Southern Coast of Essex and runs WSW through to South London and can reach parts of Surrey and Hampshire a la 2009
4. ESE this streamer actually affects North and North West London and can go as far as Beds, Bucks etc
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Round up of the 12z Models
Monday Showing as 0%
Tuesday Showing as 46%
Wednesday Showing as 15%
Gathering strength that Tuesday could be our best shot at something wintry to low levels and more of the population and this is the highest risk we have had - Need to get it upto around 70% though
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That's a bit of an unfair chart to say falling snow by Wednesday morning when it's showing Vertically Integrated Liquid accumulation between the 1st and 7th of Jan though isn't it? Your post assumpted snowfall on Wednesday morning or have I got that wrong and what has fallen on that chart is a trace amount over the downs which is what we would expect
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7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
ECM 00z had falling snow across most of SE by Wednesday morning.
What ECM model you using Please and can you show me why the ones I use are not showing this
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Yes as Steve says an Upgrade in the short term from GooFuS for the Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe before we lose the Easterly Influence completely so its only a 60 hour window really. But GFS is now showing snow showers across more of the region which is the first upgrade as far as I can see with Arpege, Harmonie, Icon and ECM still not having any of it.
Will update later after all the 12z'S are in
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2 minutes ago, danm said:
If it continues it’s track towards us intact, is it likely to produce snow here? Parts of the Midlands are getting a covering.
Models showing it gets down towards the North Midlands then shears away to the South West over the SW Midlands, Herefordshire and Wales etc before running out of steam over Glouc etc. Most models keep us dry today before the wind switches to the Mild North Easterlies lolol
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14 minutes ago, danm said:
That band across Wales and the Midlands wasn’t forecast was it? Seems to be a surprise for members in that area. It’s moving our way but I’m not convinced it’ll stay intact. We’ve had really bad luck so far.
Its been on the ICON and Arpege for 2 days now, I never commented on it because it wasnt for our region. The reason the Meto has had its pants down with it is because they clearly dont use or look at those Models. Think Arpege is showing another band of snow in the Midlands and Wales tomorrow as well.
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12 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:
BBC still forecasting rain all week.
Am I missing something here? Rain and 5c?
Nope your not missing anything at all.
Quick summary of the 00z Models and its grim reading really unless you live over 150m asl where some of the heavier areas of Precip will probably show snow more esp at night. Icon and Arpege are showing lovely streamers on Monday and Tuesday but all as rain.
Monday is at 0%
Tuesday is at 0%
Wednesday is at 0%
The above is based on a blend of all convection allowing models and covers 95% of the population of SE England
Also to the guys that have lost loved ones over this challenging time am soo sorry for your losses, lets hope 2021 gets a lot better for you all and sending virtual hugs to you all.
Best
Paul S
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- Popular Post
My 3 are easy as well
1. Jan 10th to Jan 14th 1987 - 25 foot drifts and 34cm of level snow. People actually were Skiing down the A127 and food supplies took 2 days to get through to us with most villages cut off in Eastern Essex. The Sea froze over in Leigh On Sea and lowest temp got down to -20c
2. Feb 1991 as a 19 year old had just started work and we were sent home at 12 Noon that day in Central London by the time I got to Upminster the snow line was upto the Platform from the Tracks. Incredible cold with -5c daytime highs and -18c at night
3. Nov 30th to Dec 2nd 2010 - 36cm of level snow but only 10 foot drifts with this one as the winds were not gale force whipping up drifts in open areas. Lowest Temp got down to -18c on one of the nights that followed with freezing fog forming. Snow was still on the ground on Xmas Day 2010 from this Snowfall a full 3 1/2 weeks later. The Sea once again froze over at Leigh On Sea
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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
in Regional
Posted
As expected disgusting day with bits of drizzle interspersed with heavier bits of rain and warmest temperatures in over a week with Temp of 5c and Dewpoint of 4c. So Kudos to BBC and Meto for saying it will be warmer than the week before, absolutely spot on and the only Booming I can hear is the Shoeburyness MOD site who seem to be doing some bombing on Foulness Island lol
Hope this rubbish weather clears off and we can get some frosty weather end of the week