[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

25 minutes ago, Southender said:

Depends on where your bar is set really.

I've only had a quick scan of the models and yes Saturday there is a small chance of a rain to snow to rain type situation. Only a small window though of a couple of hours in the morning. All very marginal mush.

Mid-term I'm personally not seeing anything of note to get me excited from a cold/snow perspective. Toppling Azores ridges, mean winds from the West and wrong side of marginal stuff rolling in from the Atlantic, or a glancing cooler blow from the NW?.... Unless any of the more senior members on here can give me some hope otherwise?

Still not even looking at the Models until Saturday with regards the end of Jan. But these volitile swings are always here for events after or preceding a SSW 

Still hopeful atm

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

3.4c here with a 2.8c Dew point and a raw South Easterly blowing into the Estuary flooding also a problem here 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Spraggyy said:

Gfs isn’t having any of Saturday rain for all but that’s just one model or am I missing something 

Dont worry its cannon fodder, its only just worked out tomorrow on its 18z a mere 20 hours before the possible event

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I see 18z GooFuS is last to the party tomorrow again. But it is now showing snow like the other models at least

How long before it smells the coffee for Saturday but dont worry its not showing anything at the moment as it is hopeless at precip and mesoscale like I have always stated and will not budge from that.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

On 10/01/2021 at 15:30, Paul Sherman said:

Just watched the week ahead forecast and will put in here what they have down.

Monday 10c

Tuesday 11c

Wednesday 10c

Thursday 8c

Friday 7c

As a little test lets see how those temps stack up.

Lets see what the 12z Models show as they will be rolling out soon.

Btw some cracking pictures in this thread today.

Lol

This I fear is not going to age well - My post from Sunday with what the BBC said I would be getting this week. As an aside the Saturday was showing 9c so will bump this seeing as we are half way through.

Just to keep it upto date

Monday was 8c in Leigh On Sea so overstated by 2c from the Beeb

Tuesday was 7c in Leigh On Sea so overstated by 4c from the Beeb

Today was 6c in Leigh On Sea so overstated by 4c from the Beeb

Am pretty confident tomorrow and Friday will be overstated by 4c on both days and Saturday well anyones guess.

But this does prove the point that the BBC forecasts have a very big agenda with pushing temps way too high and bang the "At least it will be mild drum"

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Think of the Airports I suppose

LGW - London Gatwick

LST - London Stansted

LTN - London Luton

That alone is Sussex, Essex and Beds 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Vesuvius said:

You have misspelt Rayleigh Paul !

 Oh the Hills of Rayleigh and Ricky

Another point about Sussex and Coastal Kent being a vital part is in the summer its always where we look to in Plume situations where lightning is often first seen coming up from France so to split that away again would be a travesty.

Like Mick I think everyone enjoys the community part of the forum and Daniel also makes a good point about the lack of posters in Norfolk meaning it got quite dead in there with just the TOD (Triangle of Doom) having their nightly meetings lol

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

4 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

You can see the difference between today and tomorrow looking at forecast soundings and the changes in the structure of the air above the ground as the front occludes and the main thrust of milder air aloft slides away to the south. Note the surface temperatures are very similar on both days east of the warm front (i.e. low single figures).

Reasonably deep layer of air >0C today, meaning snow falling aloft melts to rain on the way down. By tomorrow, the air will gradually cool aloft, allowing snow to survive to close to ground level - but still melting right near ground level. Hence if you're on a hill (i.e. 200m in this example) you have a much better chance of seeing snow, and if precipitation gets heavy enough through evaporative cooling then that'll bring the chance of some wet snow down to lower levels.

Probably going to struggle to settle given the already wet ground, but could see a slight covering on hills in particular, more especially north of London where air cools aloft earlier while the frontal band is still active before it decays through the evening and clears southwards.

Whats your take on Saturday Dan ? Better chance of coverings to lower levels I would imagine

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

But if the cold beats the warm back like the UKMO are predicting on Saturday then surely all the South East and East Anglia are in the cold sector and its win win for the area.

I have put the split to Paul and the team before and we tried to split it way back around 2013 i think but the general consensus was to leave it be

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Just now, steveinsussex said:

 I was here years ago when it was split to the SE and then to EA - it was much better.

 

Having been born and raised in Cambridge prior to moving to Sussex there is no way Id have said Cambridge was in the SE!

I think ill avoid the thread the next couple of days

Ok thats your choice I suppose but its better in here than the Mod Thread - hahahaha good luck in there

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Spraggyy said:

@Paul Sherman think me in headcorn area has any chance tomorrow or Saturday I can’t quite get my head around it and I trust you more than most weather websites

Saturday as well for Maidstone I think.

I would not rule out snow in the precip tomorrow but accumulation wise you would not have to go far anyway to get to Meopham for example. Fine margins and marginal tomorrow yet again

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

This regional thread is far too big - when some members may get heavy snow and others will get nothing but rain its pretty easy that this covers an area far too big

It really isnt Steve - Its not helped at the moment by a Warm Front that is literally changing the temperature from 10c to 3c over the course of a few miles and its ground to a halt atm. Cant really help the synoptics and when we tried to change the regionals a few years back it created uproar

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Ben Capee McInnes said:

Paul, can I ask what your views out for us in east Kent? We missed out big time last week with the amazing cold rain. A dusting would be fab

I really think our best chance both SE Essex and East Kent will be on Saturday. M1 and M11 corridoor could be in for a few surprises tomorrow from 2pm onwards though 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Yh Interestingly UKMO is really going for a Snowy Saturday for London and SE on Saturday whereas ECM not having none of it. 

Hopefully Saturday Includes you Paget as well.

Their Fax Chart shows the front well to the west by then through the Bristol Channel running down through the Isle of Wight. Also the Low Pressure is in a much better position drawing in colder air into the mix. We do not want the Low exiting offshore at all on Sat - No need to worry about any of that yet as we dont even know what tomorrows low is going to do yet.

But if the Meto believe their own fax charts and raw data then a warning for Saturday cant be far away

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

I am usually quite conservative but tomorrow really has ramped up a few gears, can only imagine the models are seeing the Occlusion being stronger as the Low exits south eastwards towards Paris and NE France tomorrow afternoon. I always look for cross model agreement in these situation but would not be surprised to see 1-5cm of Snow under heavier precip along the Occluded Front tomorrow around 15z.

We have about 7 Models on board now with the sweet spot probably Herts, Cambs, West Suffolk, NW Essex, Peterborough areas and anywhere else with height in the SE

Just look at ECM, Arpege and ICON Below an eye opener for sure

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Yh looking at Tims map you can easily see where the Warm Front is atm. On a bigger scale map it runs from Cheshire through the West Midlands down through Oxford then through the Middle of London right down through to Hertsmoncioux. Temp/Dps along the WF are 10c/9c whereas further east in places like Wattisham for example just 3c/1c

Oh and Stu London is ok I suppose if you like that sort of thing - Hahahaha

No seriously he is a top bloke and gentle giant all 6ft 8" of him lol

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

10 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

Fingers crossed for Cambs...

Yh its one of the hardest set-ups for Models to model correctly when you have a Warm Front that has effectively ground to a halt and a crashing cold front colliding with it making it Occlude its where the occlusion takes place that sees the pep up of precip, most models going for that over Scotland and NE England hence the Amber warning, but would not be surprised to see areas around the Wash, Cambs, Norfolk etc get in on the act. Saturdays looking a bit more clear cut with much more favourable synoptics having been present over Friday which should be dry and cold with rain diving south and east into a more established cold pool.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

I really would not focus on tomorrow being anything more than nuisence value for down here, might get a decent covering around Cambs/Norfolk/Lincs/Rutland etc as the Front occludes as it heads off south and east turning the back edge slops to heavier snow for a time. Its Saturday that really interests me tbh, everything looks good, wet bulb, temps and dewpoints and time of arrival for precip around 6-9am on Saturday morning.

I fully expect by Friday we will have some sort of yellow warning for down in the South East for this scenario even for the risk as it certainly is there on multiple models.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

@ Kent Blizzard thats strange as the ECM I saw for the 00z Run did show our area getting impacted on Saturday Morning and the 00z and 06z GFS showing Rain. These model runs are all over the place.

 

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

I think the Met Office might be putting some warnings in for areas further south for Saturday tbh and it might be a developing situation here. Regarding tomorrows snowfall not so cut and dried with obviously higher areas doing much better but 1 thing I look for is cross model agreement more esp the better precip guiding models 

Thursday we have little agreement from all the models still for when and if snow falls but saturday well.........

Saturday gets a tick from UKV, ECM, Harmonie but a no from ICON (00z) Arpege and GooFuS

I would expect GFS to jump on board and play catch up possibly seeing as its the worst at Mesoscale and if it does we could see some surprises on Saturday, once again places near or 10 miles within the coasts no cigar due to SE winds as the low traverses the UK and onshore flow keeps it as sleet probably.

Am sticking by the 25-31st Jan still looking interesting and Models all over the place atm due to the recent SSW effects on the data.

Next 7 days looks set with the meandering lows that are filling the Atlantic Basin keeping it unsettled with some areas coming up against colder weather turning the rain to snow more esp Midlands Northwards, its what happens next weekend onwards we need to focus on or the 23rd Onwards.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

Lol. No comparison to a lot of cold rain and sleet

 Yh I guess you right  Ed

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

For our younger members just watch this Video from about 1 min onwards to see just what a true beast from the east can do. Whole Trains buried.

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

34 Years ago today at about this time the Max Temps seen on the 12th Jan 1987

-9.1C Warlingham

-8.9C Shoeburyness

-8.8C Bingley

-8.0C Norwich

-8.0C Luton

-8.0C Bristol

-8.0C Emley Moor

-7.8C Odiham

-7.7C Herstmonceux

-7.4C Farnborough

-7.3C Church Lawford

-7.2C Bedford

-7.2C Lyneham

-7.0C Marham

-7.0C Larkhill

-6.5C Cambridge

Now thats a notable cold spell from the East 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Sonic Boom rattled windows just after 1pm here.

Apparantly it was an RAF Typhoon scrambled from RAF Conisby heading towards Northern France as a plane had briefly lost radio contact. All good now but it hit Mach 1 over the top of Essex.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

40 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

Just endured my second bad night of sleep, running. The Night before, we had some very vocal Foxes in our Close.

Last Night it was the turn of gusty winds and incessant rain, on the windows.

Hope Malcolm has no objection but Sammy Snowman would like to present the Final Act, in his Christmas Story.

Just to recap on his story, so far. Whilst on a romantic Christmas break with his Snowwoman Samantha, to Lapland, the couple announced their engagement. While they were their they met a delegation of other European Snowmen.

After the U.K's BRR-EXIT, Sammy realised some drastic action was needed to ensure the U.K. didn't miss out on Snowy Weather, this Winter.

All these European Snowmen, signed an agreement to form the E.U.S. (European Union of Snowmen).

Their first act was to sacrifice themselves in a S.S.W. (Sudden Snowmen Warming).

This resulted in the core temperature of tens of thousands of Northern Hemispheric Snowmen, rising rapidly.  They very quickly became a squelchy mess -  

This very noble act was to tear apart the dastardly Purple Venom (aka Pernicious Victor).   

Sammy would now like to present the very Final Act, in his Christmas Tale. 

He would first like to introduce  the main protagonists in the Final Act, entitled - "What Happens Next."                                               

                                                            THE CAST

               THE GOOD GUYS                                                   THE BAD GUYS      

  Sammy and Samantha Snowman          The Purple Venom (aka Pernicious Victor).

  Thousands of Stratospherically              Jett Stream (aka The Pest from the West).

  warmed Snowmen.                                     La Nina (Peruvian Gangster's Moll).

  Scandy Mandy.                                             Doug the Bartlett Slug.

  The Beast from the East.

  The Dwarves from the North.

  Italian Mo (Maurizio) - the Genovese Low.

  Arctic Si (Sigmund) - the Northern High.

  Boris the Russian Bear.                         

  Greenie Gandalf.      

   WRITERS                                                                        MAKE UP DEPARTMENT

  Meteociel Marianne.                               E.C.M.W.F. (Every Coldies 'Mare When Forecasting).

  Netweather Norman.                              G.F.S.           (Going Freezing Silly).

  Wetterzentrale Wolfgang.                      U.K.M.O.    (Unlikely Kudos (for) Met. Offal).

  SUB-WRITERS

  J.M.A (Just (a) Met. Afterthought).

  I.C.O.N. (It's Colder Up North).

                                                                                        The Final Storyline

Unlike the many Members/Visitors to the Netweather Forum, the Great British Public consumed with worry about the Coronavirus Pandemic, remain totally oblivious to the Mother of all Meteorological Wars, currently being waged, above their heads.

On the other side of the Pond, the Purple Venom has been putting together a sleazy "Crew" of miscreants, in a bid to thwart the gallant Sammy and his many Allies.

The Purple Venom aided by his bullying sidekick, Jett Stream (aka The Pest from the West), have enlisted the help of - Peruvian Gangster's Moll -  La Nina.  

Another one of his recruits has been -  Doug the Bartlett Slug.

But Sammy has put together a formidable Team, too.

They include -  Scandy Mandy. The Beast from the East - 

The Dwarves from the North -  Italian Mo (Maurizio) - 

 

Arctic Si (Sigmund) -  

Boris the Siberian Bear - 

Finally, Greenie Gandalf - 

Sammy is very excited with the Script that has been written overnight by European Cousins Meteociel Marianne, Netweather Norman and Wetterzentrale Wolfgang.    

The only worry is that Greenie Gandalf will be tempted away and switch his allegiance to the Purple Venom, over the other side of the Pond. This where Scandy Mandy has an important role to play. She has been instructed to use her Swedish feminine charm to dissuade Greenie Gandalf from "doing the dirty" on us.

If need be, she will get support from Arctic Si and very possibly, Boris the Siberian Bear.

Italian Mo, the Genovese Low, has been detailed to put (low) pressure on Doug the Bartlett Slug and eradicate him by injecting him with a vaccine of gallons of Salt Water, taken from the Ocean outside his front door.

The hope is that Doug will soon be sleeping wid da Mediterranean fishes, as the vaccine has 100% efficacy!!

Sammy, Samantha and the thousands of Northern Hemispheric Snowmen truly hope that their selfless actions will send the evil Purple Venom and his nasty cohorts packing, with his tailwinds between his legs.

Hopefully, Sammy and Samantha will be able to regenerate Dr. Who style, in the Snows outside their Ice House, in Snowdown, East Kent.

Regards,

Tom, Sammy and Samantha.    

Tom

You really need to write books your works are brilliant