[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, southbank said:

@Paul Sherman nearly 12 years to the day you probably want to look away at these photos

01st to 02nd Feb 2009 will forever be ingranied into my memory I still have Nightmares about it even now

But...............................I will raise you a 01st Dec 2010 haha

 

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Just now, Southender said:

And Ian “WTF” Brown.

I think he might have been AnotherPintOfMild actually certainly fits the bill.

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13 minutes ago, kold weather said:

On an ENE/E airflow you were pretty much upstream of my location back in the older days and we'd often share similar weather thanks to the Estuary. I in turn was an upstream person for Tom and Steve on certain airflows. 

I'm also a goldie oldie on this site, joined officially in early Feb 04 though I was a watcher for a week or two beforehand thanks to the snow of Jan 04.

 

Yh remember those days Darren think you lived in Thurrock in those days didnt you

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13 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

You weren’t Davina and Davindra were you?!  The rows that were had between those accounts and Bill Farkin and Dave Allen with his grebes and SCOD/FCOD’s (remember those?)

Edit: I was on the Met Monkey site for some time after the BBC days too; Bill Farkin appeared on there and carried on the cut off date nonsense 

Guilty M  Lord

Crazy snowfans for Lootons with his doggis broadis

If the Grebes were pointing east in September the first frosts would come in November and Seagulls flying backwards before the cut off date spelt a mild winter. Nuff Said

Our big rival in those days was a poster called AnotherpIntof Mild who was probably someone on here in the early days as well

The threads on those BBC Boards had me in stitches

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19 minutes ago, Great Plum said:

Snow watch was hilarious! How do you find out what member number you are?

It used to be on here in the early days dont think its in the Avatar bit nowadays though, would imagine you were in the low hundreds though as I remember you from those early days

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12 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

How is Davina, by the way

 Do you remember back in 2008 when I told you I was 2 alter egos on BBC Snow Watch with both Davina Allen and her Indian Cousin Davindra Allen. I never did find out who was behind Bill Farkin and Dave Allen. Brilliant days though

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Been here since the first day, member number 8 in fact. And like others used to be on BBC Snow watch or Slow Watch as it was called when the Mods closed the forum every night at 10pm 

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12 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Another baffling, lazy "snow and ice" warning from the UKMO. Why are we being lumped in with a snow warning for Scotland?

Members of the public will just see "snow and ice warning" and interpret that as we'll be getting snow. Their warning system and page is a farce.

Completely agree it is pure lazyness. 

They really cannot give a damn, why not split the UK into areas and load 4 maps on there warning page, its not hard to have a snapshot of Scotland with a yellow warning and then others for other areas and a more in depth discussion on it, I will offer to do it for them it they like as I am bored.com

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My forecast for this weekend

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Well Daniel ECM is 0 from 6 so far this winter for the SE so it cant get any worse I will give you that.

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3 minutes ago, Southender said:

Beautiful charts that would give the whole region a deep covering of snow. Nothing marginal about that. Would be some seriously beefy and prolonged shower trains setting up there.

Shame it's the best part of 2 weeks away though. If we can get that scenario into +06hrs, then we can start to take it seriously.

I have edited that for you mate for fairness lol

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Yep as expected Sunday snow going down the $hitter for the SE - never really bought into it anyway so no loss, If no snow Models will be 7 from 7 with misfires which is pretty impressive, surprised GFS has dropped it already to be honest thought that might keep with it until Saturday. As it stands

ICON, Arpege, GFS, Ukmo, UKV all say No Snow

ECM says yes but its record for placement of snow is nothing short of appalling and I would expect it to predict snow in Cape Town at 40c more than the SE Of England.

The Great Snow Hunt Continues

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So at T80 we have these from the ECM, GooFuS and I CON Models - 

Lets count down the downgrades over the next 3 days and watch how it slips into France or heads north and gives us rain.

Chances of these charts happening around 1% Lol

 

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Well if the SE Can dodge a Channel Runner it sure will put 110% into it.

ECM & GFS have it impacting us, UKMO Says it stays too far south looking at the Fax Chart.

I know who my money would be on..........Sorry Xander, Hurricane Squad, Sheldon

Hope your Birthday is White but 80% against says nope at this stage

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Took em a while to play Catch Up but finally 2 Wind Warnings out from the Meto Now 

Cone goes perfectly through the gap though

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14 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I take it our low doesn't exist yet, looking at sat, there's a low moving west above Spain, does something develop on the front straddling us. Or is it that low suddenly rapidly develop again.

The Low is expected to develop this afternoon over the SW Aprroaches and move NE to exit the East coast between the Humber and Newcastle, very strong winds on its Southern Flank will give us the strong winds later tonight as the cold front moves from west to east and trails along with the LP. Triple Point looks to be around Lincolnshire I would think around 00z

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16 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Never been a Fan of the Warning System the Meto use in the Uk and probably never will be. Last week vast swathes of the SE Had nearly 2 Inches of Rain and no warnings given, this week we have 36 hours of warnings for 10mm of rain over 3 days which hopefully is adjusted by the Met Office.

Although I feel the Yellow Rain Warning might indeed be replaced by a Wind Warning as it looks pretty rough for a few hours as a Cold Front clears through our area and gusts as high as 70mph could accompany some lively rainfall. 

The Amber is still warranted for NW Areas as this event is just starting to get going as Christoph now rapidly approaches, some have been led into a false sense of security up north with a little lull in proceedings but the Warm Thermal Conveyer is just now settling into place.

Looking further ahead is the ECM Going to be 5 from 5 with failed Snow Chances over the Weekend for areas further south, if it does then the Euro 4 and Euro Model have been dreadful this winter for modelling precip type.

Agree with others re the Wind around Midnight tonight and I highlighted the fact yesterday afternoon. I think the Meto will put another overlayed warning in about the wind and we will end up with about 100 warnings all overlayed on top of each other, its a stupid system that needs to be changed.

I certainly will watch this come through around Midnight tonight, Temps in front of the Squall are 11c and then drop to 4c after it smashes through. Arome catches the Squall line well, its going to get rough on the leading edge of that for sure.

 

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Never been a Fan of the Warning System the Meto use in the Uk and probably never will be. Last week vast swathes of the SE Had nearly 2 Inches of Rain and no warnings given, this week we have 36 hours of warnings for 10mm of rain over 3 days which hopefully is adjusted by the Met Office.

Although I feel the Yellow Rain Warning might indeed be replaced by a Wind Warning as it looks pretty rough for a few hours as a Cold Front clears through our area and gusts as high as 70mph could accompany some lively rainfall. 

The Amber is still warranted for NW Areas as this event is just starting to get going as Christoph now rapidly approaches, some have been led into a false sense of security up north with a little lull in proceedings but the Warm Thermal Conveyer is just now settling into place.

Looking further ahead is the ECM Going to be 5 from 5 with failed Snow Chances over the Weekend for areas further south, if it does then the Euro 4 and Euro Model have been dreadful this winter for modelling precip type.

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Yh huntso and Mick

The source of this air is always a massive worry when you have Tropical Origins and a conveyer of moisture. The Red Alert from a few years back that the Met Office nailed a similar timeframe before is very much like this set-up and that was some of the best forecasting I have ever seen from our Met and I gave them due praise for that at that time.

Hoping its not as modelled and our North Western and Welsh contingent get away lightly but the Models are trending even worse the last 24 hours. It looks like Christophe is going to be newsworthy

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Grim Rainfall Totals

Its not a question of "if" but WHEN the RED ALERT Warnings are dished out for the next 3-4 days. Lets just thank our lucky stars we are not in those affected areas but I fear for areas of Wales and the NW Of England

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Yes it is very sad to see some of the comments from other threads and also a lot of antagonising posts in the Model Thread as well about IMBY SE Posts as well. Best thing to do is ignore it, there is a belief that we get the best storms in summer (Wrong) the Media focus on the SE as well (Wrong) I saw loads of News clips focused on the North this week, but you only have to look at the Vibe of this thread even last night and then look at that thread to see the atmosphere in here was absolute class last night, I know where I would want to be.

So just dont get drawn in its only the weather at the end of the day and as my old Grandad Tom Lynch says on the StormChases when things dont go as Modelled "The Weather Will Do what the Weather Will Do" and I really dont care if sad minded people are gloating when things dont go as planned.

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CET upto and Including the 15th is 2.3c

So......................... For it to get down to 1979 levels we would need a deep freeze to occur over the next 2 weeks, something tells me she is going to be VERY wrong

Even 1985 had a CET of 0.8c

Its crud and lazy journalism tbh just like most of these pages that spout rubbish about beasts from the east most weeks

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January 1979 CET came in at -0.4c so if we beat that then we are doing very very well I would imagine

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29 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

I was listening to smooth radio in the car this morning and the woman was saying how this Jan will be the coldest Jan since 1963! .. Really??

I would be staggered if thats the case tbh

At this stage just to dry out would love to have a UK High for a few weeks or dare I say it Uncle Bartlett to stay

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Thats good Nick, dont need the moisture up there for dry Landspouts and Wray type Tornadoes.