[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Coopsy said:

My basic meteorological brain is struggling in this. If the cold front stalls then I thought usually the warm front would rise and sit above the cold front and stall creating a warm type occluded front. meaning it would be all snow as the main warmer airmass wouldn’t pass through? 

Yes the front the other day that dumped on Yorkshire was essentially a Warm Front that ground to a halt and the cold front crashed into the backside of it making it an Occluded front, where it Occluded the Precip went crazy around the Leeds area and higher ground and it ground to a halt giving about 10cm more snow than was forecast

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Just now, Southender said:

Nice. Belton hills early doors should do the job worst case!?

Really worried about that close to the Estuary tbh - Could literally be 9cm at Chelmsford and 1cm or slush at Southend its that mad

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

Essential sledging?

Yep the Sledge has found its way into my car somehow - Poor thing not been out since March 2018

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

Make no mistake - t'will be rain falling upon the tarmac of Rayleigh Road

Luckily I have an errand to run in Danbury Park tomorrow morning lol

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Do we have a Rush Hour on a Saturday morning in Lockdown ? Hmmm

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Dewpoints are key in this event just watch them spread in later this afternoon and overnight and go quite a bit negative. You only have to look at XCWeather or the NW Charts and see those -1c and -2c dewpoints already approaching the SE Kent Coast area coming in from NE France. You dont have to worry when Air Temps are at 2c for instance as any heavier Evaporative Cooling will drag the Isotherm down to 0c to 1c. We will then have Temps of 1c and Dps of -2c by tomorrow morning. By late morning as the milder air encroaches from the west the temps will rise to 3c and Dps of 1c and Snow on the back edge will turn to Sleet then Rain.

In conclusion absolutely nothing like last weeks cold spell, different synoptics completely. Areas close to the coast are going to struggle though, sweet spots for me will be North Essex into Suffolk and Norfolk and also Chilterns and North Downs.

Looking further ahead I will start to look at Models for the T240-t300 for the end of January from tomorrow as that is what I have always said, it has been amusing seeing the peaks and troughs of the Model Rollercoaster and there really was little point in looking at runs when the models were in chaos before they settle.

I stand by what my thinking is that better snow chances will come as the Jet relaxes south last week of Jan giving way to Battleground Snow favouring the Midlands and North at first but when it relaxes far enough South it really will bring us into the game more. Keep the Faith people

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, MAF said:

snowball throwing is to be socially distanced though

even with the warning updates on Met O i have become so disillusioned this winter that i will only believe its snowing when i actually see it.

i mean, come on, we had a week of wet, cold, easterly, frost and not a flake. tomorrow we have 4-6C and a S/SSE'ly and its going to snow?? nothing seems to make sense these days.

 

Push of colder air from the Continent Mick later this afternoon establishes overnight so when the system arrives tomorrow morning winds are southerly ahead of it meaning no warming of the air from the Sea (only inland about 10 miles from the South Coast) will be wrong side of marginal and hence you only really need -4c to -6c uppers

A southerly more favourable than an easterly madness eh and what makes us love the weather so much

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

All you need to know about GFS in 1 picture

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Hoping we dont get too many more days like that this winter, absolutely rough with a strong raw wind off the North Sea and temps ranged from 2-4c all day with 36mm of rain taking the monthly total to 52.6mm. Absolute carnage on Road and Rail down here as well with major roads closed and the C2C Line closed at times today.

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

At this stage I think most of us would take 3 hours of just seeing snowflakes falling its been a while

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Just now, Mapantz said:

The CoS is adapting itself to other weather phenomena, just like the SoR here. 

Haha how many we got now

COS

TOD

POS

SOR

ROS

All of them are in the words of Carry On Films - Khasi

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Occlusion now running out of steam and Precip shrinking, just as things would become favourable as darkness comes lol like sucking lemons down here these days much the same as trying to get more than 5 strikes of Lightning in a storm in the summer.

As the Vorticity this evening loses steam skies should clear from the North East. Darren Bent seems to think it will only get down to 0c so expect a few -3c tonight and if that happens at least some should be in for a frost tomorrow. Much drier tomorrow which should be a bit cheerier for us all.

ROS (Roll On Spring)

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Temp Now 2.6c and Dewpoint now 2.4c so getting slowly there although think its not going to be enough

More Flooding Pics from around SE Essex Area

 Fairglen Interchange on the A127

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

4 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

They don’t have a lag like we tend to either. By the time we are getting snow in March, they’ll be back to having mothership supercells and 28-30c days!! 

Yh continental climate so much better as the poster above says our little Island surrounded by water has a lot to answer for.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, yamkin said:

Here's some interesting info: Since 1881, it has snowed 94 times in Houston, Texas. In the winter of 1973, it snowed three times, dropping 2 inches on Jan. 11, 1.4 inches on Feb. 9-10, and 1.4 inches on Feb. 17-18. The mother of all snows came on Valentine's Day in 1895.

Now that is Madness - Its literally within spitting distance of the Gulf Of Mexico 

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And even in Dallas where snow is pretty rare they made the most of Snowman Building 

Love this picture from a Friend who lives East of Dallas 

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, southbank said:

Yep specially Madrid at 40.4 lats had 20 inches 

Can just about beat that with last weeks fall in Alpine (Texas) which is down near the Mexico Border at 30.35 where they had 2 feet of level snow. Joke this country 

 

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Rectory Road Railway Bridge in Rochford - A few cars have been rescued with flooded engines

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Yh not a single flake if snow either in Leigh On Sea since March 2018 so if we reach Feb that's an astonishing 35 months which for 52 degrees North in Latitude has to be bordering on a World Record along with other places in this wonderful corner of the World. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Flooding getting really bad in Essex now with 28 hours of consecutive rainfall pic from Mountnessing with run off from Fields 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Sad to report Steve has been permanently banned from posting the best contributor in SE  what he said wasn’t acceptable but tensions were running high, one shouldn’t be aggravated by a moderator. I’m sure the site wants to look like it’s not being selective in who they punish, but yes you’ve achieved that now. Happy? 
 

weather 4C and very wet. Sums up this winter.

Maybe you should only comment when you have seen both sides of the story Daniel and not what 1 side wants you to hear. You were not privvy to the Private Messages Ed received which were worthy of a total ban and you only have to look at his response on twitter recently to see the language still being used.

Can we move on now from the Steve Murr debate, he isnt posting on here anymore, if you want to go to one of his concerts then he is appearing on TWO or Twitter

End of story lets get back to the weather now can we

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Thanks for the reports guys and that shows it is good to have our Norfolk Friends in this thread.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Tropical here; eating ice cream 

Yes just  come in from a spell of Rain bathing here in Essex the easterly was refreshing, making some Mojitos now and gunna have them after cutting the Pond

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Quite a strong easterly now absolutely appalling weather. But tomorrow looks like a frosty start, cold day around 3c and dry could be some stubborn fog patches as well. We get the system through on Saturday then Sunday and Monday look like dry days which will cheer everyone up a bit.

Temp is 4.2c and Dewpoint 3.8c

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Can see why the despondency in the Model Thread from the 00z Runs, GFS had an average of 4 Inches of Rain for the South and South East in the period from 14th to 29th Jan which would be a serious problem with the water table so high. Some of the more extreme ensembles had 150mm of Rain (6 Inches) and also the ECM out to Day 10 had multiple Low Pressures barrelling across Southern England as well.

Not good