PureOcean
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Posts posted by PureOcean
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If you look at the temps for sat night into Sunday on the met office website it will be 7c by sunday morning!
I rather think that their update will suggest that the atlantic will win out.
Cold not establised enough??
And tomorrow it will most likely be a different forecast again. Honestly you have to take the UKMO with a pinch of salt, so far in this cold spell they have been rather out of touch and too slow in reaction. Yesterday for example, sun all day they said, I can tell you I drove from Whitstable to Heathrow in snow the whole route in the afternoon..... no sun until 16:00 hours!
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Heaven forecast...........
I sat up until 3am that Wednesday night into the early hours of the Thursday as a child, and I remember seeing the very first flakes of snow falling on the ground, or shall I say 'Bouncing' on the ground! Fine powdery snow, it was truly beautiful and wonderful too say the least. No school, and a trot to my nan's house in several inches of snow too tell her 'I'm off school' and 'Look at all this snow!
I remember the grain snow was fantastic that year!
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Am i right in thinking that if one snow shower develops then that will act like a ripple effect and others will begin development and so on?
At this current moment, its possible that something could develop over the warmer water this evening, and that this will spark more growth as happened 48 hours ago, out of the blue an interesting development. A lot of debate is whether the snow will stay out at sea or move far inland, thats the interesting thing.
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I think this particular weather spell is rather interesting in that no matter what forecast model you run and look and review it changes away from it, its been fun plotting it so far, I'm not convinced the cold air will break down as fast in the south east as its prediected to bythe UKMO, I am also convinced that we will see some snow unexpected in the next 24 to 72 hours. So best bet is just keep monitoring and enjoying this difficult to predict weather and learn by it!
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Bout another hour n half 2 hours yet if it does
Longer still as this is very very slow moving, its just spreading, I would doubt it would go that far west, but yet never know!
The geography of where it has come in, is flat marsh land spreading upwards to hills towards Canterbury. Be interesting to see how it copes moving inland.
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This convergence and the way its building is very similiar to lake snow effect that I have encountered in the great lakes a few times. Not exactly the same but certainly interesting. Does make me laugh as the BBC weather team all never mentioned snow or anything in Kent really, and yet I have been telling family and friends that I thought this exact thing would happen - I am convinced they stick heads and eyes in laptops and dont look outside at the conditions.
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One thing I will say is that this is building and widening gradually, its covering more ground and is certainly interesting. Not going to bed for some time, as this is a different weather event and I am intrigued.
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Cant quite work it out to be honest.
A true Kent Clipper/Streamer would have wind vectors from NNE Veering Northerly as it usually only affects areas East of Medway, and clobbers Hythe, Folkestone etc.
This one seems to be moving towards the WNW From the ESE.
I seem to recall another Streamer that favours the southern side of the Thames in this Set-Up. And this might be It setting Up!
Strong ones have been known to reach parts of the Chilterns in years gone by I seem to remember, they tend to go the reverse way, Eg Still hit SE London but reach out across Watford etc etc
I have to agree, been watching this build for hours, I am right on the front line at Whitstable, its not reached me yet, its very close, but it just seems to be getting strength from the tide coming in and warm water. Its 9c and tide coming in at this time and from this it seems to be building. It is interesting.
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Be patient people, this is going to be a very interesting evening, its only just starting to cook up now, and the number one rule of storm chasing is applied here, BE PATIENT. Storms are devloping the atmosphere is very active for sure. All the signs are in place. I have been sitting outside with my laptop its still reading 28C and its 09.43, a brandy at hand and its perfection.
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For me the exciting thing is watching the weather change radically as it sinks south, just watching the temperature drop, it amazes me how some people still are not prepared for this, its not just the temperature but the actually feel like is going to be very severe. I wait in anticipation, and have found all day I keep re-checking the charts in case I am missing something.
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-2.1C, frosty, cold, clear skies, wind light, 1002mb.
I popped down to Dover/Folkestone today and nice little flurry and dusting.
Have you been keeping an eye on the track just to the North East, been very tempting for a good 24 hours, gradually building momentum, it has connected with the weather system off of Portsmouth too, and I just wonder if it might slip over and through to Kent, its a meaty snow storm obviously its 60+ miles offshore at present but its been increasing its rotation in the past 2 hrs and I just have this 5% chance thought something is going on - just a gut feeling.
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Snow Snow Snow..... or Rain Rain Rain ..... or maybe Thaw Thaw Thaw....
Simply put this is an interesting day, with in general everyone seeing a thaw going one, snow about, rain about and even some lovely sleet. My kids just said "Dad will it snow again", my gut reaction is maybe later tonight, my brain reaction saying is a 40/60 call now, snow in the east for sure but will the cool air win against the mild air.
Well I got other things to do like trying to repair the blown down snowman, and told teh kids that it looks like a school day tomorrow for sure.
So over and out for me, have a good one everyone until later, and fingers crossed and a prayer to the snow god that we get bashed from the east!
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PureOcean
Are you not in any way shape or form worried about what will fall from the sky, It has been pure rain and steady and Moderate at times here since I woke up, the Snow has a layer of glaze over the top now and when I popped out it felt pretty tropical in relation to the last 4-5 days, this Beasterly certainly is a nice snug fella compared to the Cold NorEaster :lol:
Paul S
Yep but thats just you in Essex, I am across the water and have been having snow flakes and grain snow constantly all morning. I agree a lot of issues going on but you have to keep your eye on the bigger picture not the immediate by the minute localized one.
But who knows.... lets just wait and see what the next 18 hours brings, it will either be the planned snow, or nothing... geeze the way the weather has been playing round I would not hold off a beach day and 30C sunshine
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.html
Ok this is a novice question here, judging by the look of this surface pressure map from MetO that red line is a warm front does that constitute the thaw that everyone is talking about ??? I do believe that the high pressure is moving north and the low pressure is pushing up from the Atlantic possibly losing our cold air ..... a return to Atlantic low pressure systems ???
Well if that was the theory then it shoudl be +30c in Moscow instead of -20C and deep snow....
Seriously, some of the points you raised are correct, but its not as simple as that, I really wish it was though, means we could just check the charts once a day!
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Thats a positive note PureOcean, do you think its a possibility that London ( Greenwich area ) is likely to get any if at all ??? Working overtime today Greenwich town centre, would love to have a downpour while I'm there lol
It is very hard to be specific to a town at this point, but I see no reason to suggest that London and indeed Greenwich will not not miss out. It is looking like it will be more of a front type event rather than small showers which will mean that you will probably receive a snow fall. Trouble is situations do change and we are talking about 6 to 18 hours away, all I know is that the satellite images, radar and presnt reports are all positive, that is why the television bunch keep on saying its coming also. As I sit here now, I believe that the front of Germany will hit us and deliver some good snow, I believe the front in teh north sea off Ntherlands will go further north and I believe in the mean time we will see lots of small snow flurries/showers (I have had 5 since 7am on the coast) - The north sea sky looks full of snow. The other key thing is the wind has eased some, more than was expected at this moment, so that also signifies a far better snow event because the snow will fall better rather than drift!
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meteogroups Europe radar shows snow deteriorating rather than growing whilst crossing the north sea http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/radar/europe.html
Why is that? it just seems to 'vanish'
unless it's what's behind it heading towards brussels at the moment which is what we need to keep our eyes on? if it keeps it's current path and keeps growing we will be hit
Radar error on some part. Some sources are having problems today so the data being delivered at this time to some of the continental sites are not accurate just at this moment, will likely improve in time. Remember that the radar will not always show what is happening, it will show echos. The fact is that once the cloud approaches the cooler land you will see snow readily develop also. A lot is going on today, so 100% forecast is impossible as its changing by the minute but never less what is constant is the threat for heavy snow sometime between 15:00 and 22:00 tonight in the south east. At this time this still remains a possible. The snow you see off holland that is level with Anglia region will go in north of the wash most likley and is forecast to do anyway. The snow for the south east should and is supposed to be behind this and having just spoken to a Germany friend and expert they are in deep snow and its heading west towards Britain! Nothing like visual confirmation.
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Thanks,there is still hope then ,lets keep our fingers and toes crossed
Yes you need to be looking at Germany an dthe low countries as this is where the snow warning is coming from, its a run along the line in effect, all our snow is originating far east of this and Germany at this time is taking a pounding!
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First thing Kent and most of Britain have got temperatures from 1 to 3C at this present time, and this was to be expected.
Second thing, Snow will hit Kent, Sussex, Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk for sure but its still over the low countries at this time and still far too much going on to say what the outcome will be. At this present moment it looks liek everything is falling into place on the mdeium and long range radar systems, short range such as your free 30 minute one at BBC and UKMO will not really show the snow at this moment, it will in due course but its out of that range. The front is coming this way, it is solid and it is moving about and growing in parts.
The big unknown question is how much moisture it wil soak up in the north sea that is about 9C. If as forecast it grows quickly then "YES" we would get hit. The UKMO only have skeleton staff on Sunday's and the update will always be slow even for a warning they are holding on as they can not be 100% sure of timing now.
I hope that clears all that up. Its thawing at Whitstable, but also keeps grain snowing as well, the whole of Kent is covered with flurries, but nothing signigicant at this moment.
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Nice little flurry again here in Whitstable.
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Snow Afternoon and Through evening:
Some people may get heavy snow as the north sea warms it up and creates more depth but many will get lightish snow, BUT its the duration of this light snow that is important, some places will see 12,18 and 24 hrs of light constant snow (like a drizzle effect maybe), that will over that time deliver deep snow. So this is why the warnings are occurring in a generalized manner, its the duration of the front, however why the UKMO and others are getting concerned is because the past few days the north sea has acted very well in creating depth in the clouds and has in some cases turned what shoudl have been a light snow cloud to a heavy snow cloud and that has then dumped a good couple inches unexpected.
I hope to those of you who are still learning about snow and enjoying this snow this will be of some kind of help. Remember its the duration or the potential of the duration of the snow this afternoon, evening etc... coupled with strong winds that make this an interesting snow event.
Hope that helps.
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Um, I'm afraid it really isn't going to be exciting, it's the same old problem I'm afraid, the steering winds at the West end of the Estuary are and have been NNE-NE for most of this terrible cold spell. This means that as soon as anything decent comes up the Thames it will be steered away to the South East of London and will not push through and give us a dollop. The steering winds do not have a direct Easterly component in them until late Sunday into Monday when all the action is dead.
Best chances to catch the heavier bursts of precip are for these areas:
East London (E)
South West London (SW)
South East London (SE)
Looks very bleak if you live in:
Central London (EC/WC)
West London (W)
North London (N)
North West London (NW)
We need to hope for a last minute change in steering winds, that's the only way most of London can get anything reasonable from this, as it is, most of London will be lucky to get a cm or 2 from this.
Utter disaster
You need to monitor the winds at different levels not at ground level, if you are using that theory.
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Its seems about an inch.. all the foot prints have gone and any snow that had thawed from the roofs has been replaced..
Where I am they do not grit so we cannot tell what is the pavement and what is the road!!!!
Hopefully more to come!
Definately more to come, you can be sure of this, we keep on getting a top of snow here in Whitstable every few hours. We have had a lot of dumpings the past 48 hours, in fact last night was incredible blizzards off the sea and fantastic snow fall!
Well the wind is gaining in strength here are Whitstable, snow in te air, dark skies out to sea to the east. Last night was an amazing view of teh beach the tide had gone out about 3/4 of a mile and all the sea bed was white... it looked amazing.
I am really enjoying this cold spell just wish I did not have 2 broken ribs, but then again to be honest it does mean I keep on getting up through the night because I cant sleep as the pain is so bad and I get to keep a constant weather watch...
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Whitstable is very deep now, its been a contstant Kent streamer, its deep powder and a blizzard also on the beach, fantastic snow event tonight, just brilliant.
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You can see why weather events of old perhaps allowed people to just enjoy the experience, you basically had radio, some TV forecasts and it obviously appeared to just happen and eventually just thaw. Expectations other than for perhaps the real pro's in those days who had access to whatever data was available, were never really able to be raised and dashed for the general public quite so quickly as they are now.
Communication tools (twitter/facebook/forums etc) allow people to almost report on every forecast or what is on the radar to friends, family and people afar.
It really is now quite an exceptional rollercoaster following what will, won't or might happen and whilst in some ways that in itself is a buzz, it does seem to account for why people get so downbeat the minute they here a slightly negative forecast.
We just seem to have access to so much information and therefore misinformation, it is now more about knowing who and what to refer to, to get some idea of what is about to happen.
VERY WELL PUT, Too Much Information, Too Many People providing miss information.
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Just took a measurement and we have had just short of 4" this morning in Whitstable.
London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread - Part 3
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Your spot on... well explained.