reef
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Posts posted by reef
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damianslaw It was the third driest Spring since 1980 for us. 23.0mm in March, just 4.0mm in April and 37.8mm in May.
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B87 That was not a terrible summer back then though. You cant compare 50 years ago to current averages. The same synoptics now would be much warmer and probably sunnier - along the lines of perhaps 1.5-2.0C warmer with perhaps 15-20 hours more sun per month. It would be a very warm and sunny June, average July and very warm August.
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The ensembles show nothing like that. They're just a few degrees either side of average right out until the end. In London, there are only five members that go above a 2M temp of 16C for the entire run and none show below freezing. Its about as boring an outlook as could be. Thats the GFS. The ECM actually shows a few colder members below -10C 850hPa after the 19th. None really trouble the +10C 850hPa isotherm on either.
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Haven't seen the sun since Monday now. Yet again it's overcast and we're still on 11.7hrs of sunshine 8 days into the month.
The 1991-2020 average is 123hrs in March here and the next few days look cack so it's looking like another duller than average month already.
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March continuing where February left off with regards to sunshine here. Just 11.7 hours in the first 6 days and it's overcast and damp with drizzle again today.
It looks like solid east or south-easterlies for the next week too, so we could get to mid-month with truly woeful totals in this area.
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Grey and misty with drizzle and only 6.9C here. Grim here in the east today.
Westerlies all winter and then as soon as we hit spring it's easterlies. All for maximum greyness.
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The outlook looks rubbish for here in the east for the next week with winds constantly from the east in some form or other bringing lots of cloud. The only plus is that it looks mainly dry.
Today it did brighten up a bit mid-afternoon on, but we still can't seem to string together a fully clear day even yesterday clouded over bt 2pm.
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I think looking at analogue years based on temperature is flawed these days. 1989 had a CET mean of 16.4C and 2023 had a mean of 16.5C but they were vastly different summers.
The upcoming summer may have a CET of 17-18C like the forecasts suggest, but that doesn't mean it will be another 1976 or 2018. It could just as well be another 2023 but with temperatures 0.5-1.0C warmer but with the same crap weather.
Its difficult to find any summers that are 17C+ and wetter than average as they haven't happened yet. However with the background warming taken into account, such summers that were 16C and wetter than average not long ago are probably the closest fit to this, but with temperatures a little higher.
I think it'd be a good bet that 2024 will be one of these two: warm and wet (like 2023) or very warm and dry (aka 2018/2022). I think getting any summer (wet or dry) much below average (16C) is probably difficult now and sub-15C (1C below average) out of the question.
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SunSean In my own figures on the most recent 30 years (1994-2023), the first 5 days of March are actually colder than any point in February. Its a rather odd anomaly.
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Weather-historyIt came in at just 21 here, the 5th lowest in the last 40 years.
it was also the wettest since 1980 for us and the first winter in 40 years with more than 150% of average rainfall.
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Its worth noting the 30 year average (1995-2024) is now 5.4C compared to 3.8C for the 1961-1990 average.
The 1961-1990 average for March was 5.7C!
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Its confirmed as 7.8C.
Winter in 5th place at 6.5C.
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Mild, wet and dull all winter and as soon as it hits 1st March all of the models start showing northern blocking and easterlies, but not potent enough to be anything but cold and still dull.
The weather really is trolling us now. You can almost guarantee it will come to fruition.
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Slightly warmer and wetter than average, but cooler and drier than February:
7.6C and 77mm
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Is there any information on the storm in the Med at the moment? It looks quite "Medicane-y":
Wrong time of the year I know, but impressive nonetheless.
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Yesterday came in at 5.1C, so well above the prediction again (3.7C).
5.9C required for the remaining 6 days to beat the record, I believe.
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It's likely as the climate warms the land will warm more quickly than the ocean so it means continental flows in summer will be more extreme. This is what we are sort of seeing in recent years.
Apart from that, for the other 90% of the time in the UK, higher SSTs mean more intense storms, heavier rainfall, more flooding and in winter more moderation of cold sources so less snow. The jury is out whether it influences synoptics and makes westerlies more likely, but it seems that way. In winter at least. Overall, patterns seem to get stuck in place more now.
For summers, it generally doesn't change the weather on the ground. 13C and raining in July just becomes 15C and raining, with overnight mins proportionally higher. However hot spells will be more extreme, though not necessarily more frequent at first.
I dont think we'll know if this is the new normal for a few years yet. It could be a blip in an otherwise gradual change, much like the 2007-2012 period.
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We actually managed a min of -0.1C this morning so at least this won't be our first February without an air frost. The record high low minimum is -0.5C though so still on course for that.
We had to wait 36 days since the last air frost on the 19th January, which gives an idea of how mild it has been.
The lowest last night was -5.6C in Aboyne.
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SunnyG In no way in any universe can this winter be described as decent.
It has been the worst winter I can remember. Relentless wind, rain, cloud and flooding.
The best part of it was mid-January when it was actually dry and sunny.
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Earthshine A summer 0.7C warmer than 1976 and 1.0C warmer than 2018 would be a bit alarming!
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The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO)
WWW.TORRO.ORG.UK
TORRO is a privately-supported research body specialising in severe convective weather in Britain and IrelandOnly once you get to about 21st May do most days have records above 30C. I think these days its probably possible in the last few days of April but that would be pushing it. It would most likely require perfect synoptics, cloudless skies, no wind and well above average SSTs to do it.
26.5C is the highest in the first half of April. Most days in March are 21-22C before it picks up at the end.
Its often easy to forget Spring is quite a cold season. The average maximum doesn't hit 15C in most places outside of the south-east until mid-May.
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raz.org.rain "Milder weather" while the February CET is sat 0.8C above the current record. We've already been in the milder weather for 5 weeks now.
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damianslaw A very mild March. Only 11 have ever been 8.0C or above!
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Any chance we can discuss summer in the summer thread and leave this for Spring?
Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
In Absence of True Seasons It has been absolutely woeful here so far. Just 14.2 hours of sunshine, a highest temperature of 9.7C and 120% of the expected rainfall for the first 10 days of the month. Every single day has had a nagging easterly wind aswell. It has been terrible.