reef

January 21

Peak winds look to be around 10pm up here, but we've already just had a gust of 57mph even here in the relatively sheltered East.

January 21

7 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Out of curiosity, what would you define as a cold Spring, or even a cool Spring?

Surprised you actively enjoy wet and windy though. That's probably the least usable and most impactful weather condition combo we have (outside of extreme cold or extreme heat), especially if you want to do basically anything outdoors. If your job involves being outside for hours on-end, it's genuinely hellish weather to be in.

Probably worth bearing in mind too that we had one of the wettest Novembers and then wettest Decembers on record, which many places have nowhere near yet recovered fully from, so a wet Spring (after what will no doubt be a pretty wet end to January and then probably a wet Feb too, cos it's England), will cause havoc to such areas already suffered from flooding over the past 4-6 weeks.

I suspect most people would consider an "average" Spring to be quite cold now. Last year was considered "cold" but it was 0.2C above the 1991-2020 average. 2022 has been mentioned as "good March but the rest pretty average" but it had a 13.3C May and was only 0.2C below the record!

That's not saying much mind you as the 1991-2020 average is just 1.1C below said record, such has been the concentration of warm Springs in recent years.

We're over due a really warm May though. We've had an 11.9C April and 17.0C June either side, but no May above 13.4C. Definitely a 14+C one due at some point.

January 21

The way things are going its more likely to be warmer, drier and sunnier than average - as that's the trend of the last 25 years or so.

The cluster of warm and sunny Springs is remarkable after 2000. It has changed more than any other season.

Here, since 2007 there have been 10(!) Aprils with less than 25% of average rainfall. 2020, 2021 and 2022 had 6.6mm or less. In the same time period only 6 out of 51 individual Spring months have had less than 90% of average sunshine. There have also only been three Springs below average since 2001.

Odds are in favour of a good one, though it means expectations are probably far too high.

January 20

1 minute ago, CharlieBear9 said:

Not especially. Comfortable you could say. Though I don't understand what any of this has to do with the weather.

It has nothing to do with it, hence they've all been removed.

Any further windups or guilt-tripping posts and they will be removed and action taken.

January 19

13 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

One thing I have noticed is that snow cover has hung around longer in recent winters. For example, the winter of 2018-19 which was not a snowfest and was very mild times but I still managed to record 6 days of lying snow, all down to one morning snowfalls of late January

4 days with lying snow is going to be recorded for the current spell

28th December 2020 snowfall gave a covering that lasted until the 9th January.

The Boxing Day 2014 snowfall, that cover lasted until New Year's Eve.

In the 1990s, a lot of the snowfalls gave coverings, were here today and gone tomorrow affairs. The late January 1996 easterly which gave a lot of snow for this area for an easterly, that snow cover contrived to disappear within 48 hrs, a "dry thaw" Even the early February 1996 snowfall covering which started Monday night /Tuesday was gone by the Friday.

It's the total opposite here. In the last 11 years, only late-February 2018 (4 days) and February 2021 (7 days) have managed more than a day or two with lying snow.

I think we've always had these occasional prolonged spells every few years and they're still generally potent enough to deliver. The short-lived transient spells have vanished here though. The toppler which was a thing of the 90s and 00s seem to never happen now. They used to be the main source of snow here outside the more famous spells.

January 18

1 hour ago, raz.org.rain said:

If you live out in the countryside like me, you've probably noticed the farmers have started back up again. Plenty of tractors running about, but none of the delightful smells just yet. Usually in early spring they start working the fields early in the morning when it's still dark out, that's how you know spring has arrived here.

More like after weeks of everything being sodden, they're getting done what they can before we get the wet and windy weather again!

January 18

As bad as high summer was in 2023, you cant really compare it to the really bad summers. It did after all include a 17.0C June which was also very dry and sunny.

Compare that to summers like 2007 and 2011 where all three summer months were below 15.5C on the CET and had very little in the way of heat, or 2012 which was cool, wet and dull everywhere (which 2023 wasnt).

The bad weather was condensed into July and August, so it was perceived as worse than it was. If we had a rubbish June and August but July was the better month, it wouldn't have been seen as a summer as bad as it was for example.

January 18

SImply, no they're not. Winter here from 1980 to present from my own data:

About a 1.2C increase on the trend. Pretty similar to the warming national / globally.

And lying snow, which has been particularly dire in the last decade. There are the same number of winters with 0 or 1 snow lying at 0900 days pre-2013 as after 2013:

January 15

It looks quite similar to December but with the cold mid-month instead of at the beginning. Locally, the first half of December was 1.3C below average but the month finished 1.7C above overall. The first 15 days of January are -0.2C here and this will fall, but then exceptional mild looks to be the order of the day making it finish above average.

Could be the case of a mild overall winter but with a few short-lived cold spells hidden away within it. Shame there isn't much snow.

January 11

53 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i have had heavy rain when it has been -15c

Fortunately freezing rain is rare in the UK. It has to be one of the most evil types of weather going.

A typical North Sea muck day today with featureless overcast skies and no sunshine at all. If anything, at least this cold air from the North will clear the grey and give some sunshine. The first 11 days of January have had just 12 hours of sunshine so far. After a terrible previous three months it will be nice to get some sunshine.

January 11

24 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

You can understand why some are so dead set against the idea of a late SSW as it'll just prolong these conditions well into spring!

I've no idea where this late SSW = a bad spring nonsense comes from. The stratosphere warms and the polar vortex breaks up every spring.

The same goes for SSW = cold spell for the UK in winter.

As always, they can have an effect, but its predominantly determined by a combination of factors. Yes, it can shake up the pattern, but it could quite as easily lead to us being in a warm pattern rather than a cold one.

January 11

14 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Mine has the worst screen burn-in I have ever seen on such a device.

Knowing Davis it'll have been the cheapest, lowest quality screen they could get a hold of.

Knowing the nature of the device and how it will show a similar image for the majority of it's life, you would expect they would pick a screen with technology that doesn't suffer from burn-in. Logically anyway.

January 10

5 minutes ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

That was quite a drop from 8.2C the day before!

It would only require yesterday to have been -19.7C. Easy!

January 10

It has updated and is 5.1C to the 9th.

January 10

I'm surprised by today, I expected more of featureless grey sheet with the lack of cold uppers and a north-easterly wind direction, but instead we've got sunshine and showers.

Its a bit cooler than forecast aswell with a max of 6.5C. BBC keep persisting with maximum temperature predictions that are too high. They were going for 8-9C for us under the NE'erly later in the week. I cant see it to be honest.

January 10

36 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Yes, that entire 'high summer' block of 2023 was very unusual. As you say, even in other years with pretty poor summers, there were at least some warm, sunny and dry spells interspersed.

I don't think 'proper heat' is a necessity tbh, despite it being the focal point of summer discussion for alot of people. The odd heatwave does not make a summer season to me. Sunshine hours are more important than heat IMO. June 2023 had no particularly hot days of note (I think one day was 30c or more in my area, with the rest in mid to high 20s at most), yet that 3 week period was one of the best summer spells I've experienced, primarily due to the sunshine levels and dry, useable weather, during the longest days of the year to boot.

I'd rather have a month of mostly sunny, and mostly dry conditions ranging 18-24c, than a month with 2 or 3 blasts of 30-35c for a few days at a time, surrounded by cloudy and / or wet dross (which is usually the way with those heatwaves).

I often wonder how summer 2023 would have been perceived had the 3-4 weeks of dry, sunny and warm weather in June occurred over 7-10 day periods in each of the summer months instead. Stats-wise it wasn't the worst summer but as all of the bad weather was concentrated in high summer, it felt pretty poor.

I imagine it would have been seen as a better summer if it occurred that way - more of a typical UK summer.

January 9

3 minutes ago, Racer said:

I said I didn’t understand why people wanted deep cold, I didn’t whinge or criticise as that’s their choice and their opinion. Mine happens to be different.
As for the effects of cold weather, that’s science. Deal with it.

It wasn't aimed specifically at you, but as you replied, I would ask why someone who has been here 5 years and hates winter so much has only posted exclusively in December, January and February during that time. Not to mention the recurring theme in those posts.

January 9

I'll never understand why people join a weather enthusiast's forum and then whinge about people following the models in the other thread or about potential weather that is actually interesting and not the grey, miserable rubbish we have had for pretty much all of the winter (and much of the Autumn) so far. Enough of the guilt-tripping and saying how cold weather isn't good for people. People have preferences that are different. Deal with it. Not to mention, the same people will be whinging in summer when the models don't show the weather they desire or if anyone dare show any other preference to them. Its ridiculous.

January 9

Unbelievable how the GFS has shifted In the last 36 hours. On the latest run, apart from Scotland the -5C or colder 850hPa air is barely here for 48 hours before the low to the south-west approaches and it's gone.

It can't be discounted of course, but hopefully it's just winding up the low over the Azores too much.

January 9

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised no air frost last few nights..

No chance here with the wind from the east as well as the cloud. Its hovered around 3-5C day and night.

January 9

Moved to the climate section as its more relevant to there than winter discussion.

Thanks

January 9

11 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Over a month since this thread saw any action, with the potential for snow cover and slack northerly airstream, this thread may become more active next week... a watching brief..

We haven't even had an air frost here since 6th December. In fact it has only dropped below 2C four times since then. Pretty poor for Dec-Jan.

January 9

1 hour ago, Sun Chaser said:

Lovely mid April warm spell on the CFS! Not long to go until this kind of thing is possible again.

That would be anything but warm! The wind is coming off the North Sea. Cloudy and 8C for a lot of England more like.

January 8

1 minute ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Thanks.

Any reason why the Heathrow stats are quite different to the temps on Met Office, BBC, phone forecasts etc? Is it ground temp vs air temp or something else?

Historical records in the UK are 0900 to 0900 GMT, so in summer you could be at 13C all day, but if it reaches 20C by 10am the next morning then the maximum for that day is 20C. Likewise, if its 2C at 0900GMT in winter on Tuesday but all of that night is in double figures, then the minimum for the Wednesday is 2C, not double figures.

It all balances out in the long run, but it means its quite hard to record extremely low maximums or extremely high minimums in summer.

January 8

Just now, bluearmy said:

Indeed

don’t need very high risk/reward charts this far out

concerned at the retrogressive swing west that all the models are playing with because it prevents the trough digging south of the U.K. with the really cold uppers

It also kills off the chance of shower activity for a lot of areas as what was a direct northerly / north-easterly is now a slack north-westerly. Not bad for Scotland, the north-west and Cheshire gap, but everywhere else is cold and dry.

The low approaching from the south-west will kill it off quickly too.

Sign In

Forums

Blogs

Gallery

Events

Learn About Weather and Meteorology

Community guides

Posts posted by reef