reef
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Posts posted by reef
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SunSean When you look at years with a cold March in recent years in the CET zone I'm often surprised they are so unpopular with the warm summer fans:
Sub-5.5C CET Marches since 1988:
1995, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2013 and 2018.
Apart from 2001 being there and 2003 and 2022 not, it would be a clean sweep of decent summers.
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This month could be the February equivalent of December 2015 at this rate. It doesn't look like cooling down much in the CET zone at all. We could well be well north of 8.0C at mid-month and it wouldnt take too much of a warm spell in the second half to see to it. GFS tonight keeps it above average right out until the last week.
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raz.org.rain Clearly an error there on that chart. No way is the ice less than 10cm thick next to the pole at this time of the year.
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January was the 7th consecutive wetter than average month here too, with 2023 the second wettest year. If there are water restrictions at any point this year then we may as well give up.
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SunSean It wasn't a criticism. The issue is more with the MetOffice. I can understand them giving only the readings for the automatic recorders on a day to day basis, but it's a shame they don't show the corrected figures at month end. Unfortunately the only way to see them correctly as it stands is to wait for the actual and anomaly maps a few days later.
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Metwatch Most of the figures in that list are wrong unfortunately. If its from an automatic sunshine recorder rather than a manual then it will record up to 10% too low. Leconfield near here is another example: 64 hrs on the list, 69 hours in reality.
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Any chance the Spring discussion can move to the Spring thread and this one be left for winter?
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Mild with close to average rainfall:
5.9C and 72mm
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@TillyS I don't think those areas will be much above 12C today. The cold front is much further south than forecast. We were supposed to be under the milder air here, but instead the front is positioned right over us and its 7C.
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@RJBingham Start of?
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@baddie Sunny Januarys have been a thing in recent years. Here, the top two are 2022 and 2023 and the other three in the top 5 are 2015, 2012 and 2020. All within the last 10 years.
Top 5 sunniest Januarys:
2022: 104hrs
2023: 103hrs
2015: 91hrs
2012: 89hrs
2020: 85hrsThe 1991-2020 average here is 61 hours but the last decade has averaged 76 hours.
February is similar, the last decade has averaged 100 hours compared to 86 hours for 1991-2020. Winters are definitely getting sunnier. We could end up in the bizarre situation soon where November is duller than both, as that has averaged 68 hours in the last decade.
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Nearly a degree above the previous record (18.3C) and almost 4C above the date record.
It shouldn't really be surprising these days but it is.
It also means December, January and February have all broken their records since 2019.
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@Metwatch Five of the last ten winters in the top 15 there. Shows how depressingly mild it has become.
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Its the moaning thread and not everyone lives in London.
Here it has been overcast and no higher than 7C.
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I like unusual weather, so the answer is never, as anything below average is so rare these days. Plus you can get some pretty dramatic weather in a cold flow in Spring. The bog-standard 14C and overcast is also pretty grim at any point in the year.
Most people with "cut-off" dates (something I don't really understand as snowfall would be as exciting to me in May as it is in January) tend to look for cold in Autumn and warmth in Spring far too early. March for example is really quite a cold month in the scheme of things. Warmth is possible then but its never going to be that common.
A lot of people when they say "look forward to Spring" actually mean summer or just the higher light levels in general. Apart from occasionally at the very end, Spring is almost never "hot".
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Just had a 57mph gust. Its a southerly wind though and we're not too exposed in that direction.
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Peak winds look to be around 10pm up here, but we've already just had a gust of 57mph even here in the relatively sheltered East.
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7 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:
Out of curiosity, what would you define as a cold Spring, or even a cool Spring?
Surprised you actively enjoy wet and windy though. That's probably the least usable and most impactful weather condition combo we have (outside of extreme cold or extreme heat), especially if you want to do basically anything outdoors. If your job involves being outside for hours on-end, it's genuinely hellish weather to be in.
Probably worth bearing in mind too that we had one of the wettest Novembers and then wettest Decembers on record, which many places have nowhere near yet recovered fully from, so a wet Spring (after what will no doubt be a pretty wet end to January and then probably a wet Feb too, cos it's England), will cause havoc to such areas already suffered from flooding over the past 4-6 weeks.
I suspect most people would consider an "average" Spring to be quite cold now. Last year was considered "cold" but it was 0.2C above the 1991-2020 average. 2022 has been mentioned as "good March but the rest pretty average" but it had a 13.3C May and was only 0.2C below the record!
That's not saying much mind you as the 1991-2020 average is just 1.1C below said record, such has been the concentration of warm Springs in recent years.
We're over due a really warm May though. We've had an 11.9C April and 17.0C June either side, but no May above 13.4C. Definitely a 14+C one due at some point.
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The way things are going its more likely to be warmer, drier and sunnier than average - as that's the trend of the last 25 years or so.
The cluster of warm and sunny Springs is remarkable after 2000. It has changed more than any other season.
Here, since 2007 there have been 10(!) Aprils with less than 25% of average rainfall. 2020, 2021 and 2022 had 6.6mm or less. In the same time period only 6 out of 51 individual Spring months have had less than 90% of average sunshine. There have also only been three Springs below average since 2001.
Odds are in favour of a good one, though it means expectations are probably far too high.
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1 minute ago, CharlieBear9 said:
Not especially. Comfortable you could say. Though I don't understand what any of this has to do with the weather.
It has nothing to do with it, hence they've all been removed.
Any further windups or guilt-tripping posts and they will be removed and action taken.
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13 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
One thing I have noticed is that snow cover has hung around longer in recent winters. For example, the winter of 2018-19 which was not a snowfest and was very mild times but I still managed to record 6 days of lying snow, all down to one morning snowfalls of late January
4 days with lying snow is going to be recorded for the current spell
28th December 2020 snowfall gave a covering that lasted until the 9th January.
The Boxing Day 2014 snowfall, that cover lasted until New Year's Eve.
In the 1990s, a lot of the snowfalls gave coverings, were here today and gone tomorrow affairs. The late January 1996 easterly which gave a lot of snow for this area for an easterly, that snow cover contrived to disappear within 48 hrs, a "dry thaw" Even the early February 1996 snowfall covering which started Monday night /Tuesday was gone by the Friday.
It's the total opposite here. In the last 11 years, only late-February 2018 (4 days) and February 2021 (7 days) have managed more than a day or two with lying snow.
I think we've always had these occasional prolonged spells every few years and they're still generally potent enough to deliver. The short-lived transient spells have vanished here though. The toppler which was a thing of the 90s and 00s seem to never happen now. They used to be the main source of snow here outside the more famous spells.
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1 hour ago, raz.org.rain said:
If you live out in the countryside like me, you've probably noticed the farmers have started back up again. Plenty of tractors running about, but none of the delightful smells just yet. Usually in early spring they start working the fields early in the morning when it's still dark out, that's how you know spring has arrived here.
More like after weeks of everything being sodden, they're getting done what they can before we get the wet and windy weather again!
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As bad as high summer was in 2023, you cant really compare it to the really bad summers. It did after all include a 17.0C June which was also very dry and sunny.
Compare that to summers like 2007 and 2011 where all three summer months were below 15.5C on the CET and had very little in the way of heat, or 2012 which was cool, wet and dull everywhere (which 2023 wasnt).
The bad weather was condensed into July and August, so it was perceived as worse than it was. If we had a rubbish June and August but July was the better month, it wouldn't have been seen as a summer as bad as it was for example.
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SImply, no they're not. Winter here from 1980 to present from my own data:
About a 1.2C increase on the trend. Pretty similar to the warming national / globally.
And lying snow, which has been particularly dire in the last decade. There are the same number of winters with 0 or 1 snow lying at 0900 days pre-2013 as after 2013:
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Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
NewEra21 I think it's quite likely we challenge the mildest February on record at this rate. With the CET standing at 9.0C and it looking pretty mild for the foreseeable (apart from a small blip tomorrow), there's a chance a warm spell in the second half could clinch it. We require about 7.8C for the remaining days and the way things are at the moment we could push it surprisingly close.