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reef

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Posts posted by reef

  1.  baddie I'm always surprised when 2014 is considered a decent summer. It was the second coolest summer of the last decade and cooler than all of the last 8. It was also widely above average on rainfall for large parts of England and north-east Scotland. Just about the only thing going for it was it was quite sunny.

    For here, 2014 has a summer index of 230, which is less than both 2021 (231) and 2023 (244)

  2.  CryoraptorA303 the precipitation anomaly maps show a wet June and July though, so I suspect it won't necessarily be Euro High setup that would dominate. The anomalies show June and July both 1-2C above average but wetter than normal and then a less hot but drier August. 

    It's worth noting a 1-2C above average summer on that is a 17+C CET summer so it is suggesting a close to record warm summer but with average or above rainfall. Our climate has warmed a lot but I struggle to see it unless that rainfall is from thunderstorms and not fronts.

  3.  Scorcher Dullest October - February periods here since 1980:

    1992-93: 299hrs
    2023-24: 299hrs (to 18th Feb)
    1982-83: 300hrs
    1990-91: 322hrs
    2020-21: 323hrs
    1993-93: 327hrs
    1997-98: 328hrs
    1984-85: 329hrs
    1995-96: 332hrs
    2002-03: 332hrs

    I suspect it'll end up somewhere in this list. So depending on whether it beats 1990-91, it could be the worst in 30 years.

    • Like 2
  4. June and July 2006 were better than 2018, but the summer as a whole was better in 2018 as all three months were decent. August 2006 was cool, dull and wet which brings down the summer a little.

    Here 2018 was 0.4C warmer, had 46.7mm less rain and 16 hours more sunshine than 2018. 2006 had 33 days with measurable rain compared to 24 in 2018.

    2018 also had a warm, dry and exceptionally sunny May before it whereas May 2006 was extremely wet with average temps and sunshine.

    Summer 2022 had less rainfall and more sunshine than both 2006 and 2018 here and also had a warm, sunny and extremely dry Spring before it, so that probably tops both.

    • Like 1
  5.  Cheshire Freeze Its just typical really.

    We're on a hell of a run of above average months though compared to the 1961-90 average. Even compared to the 1991-2020 average we haven't gone more than 0.5C below since December 2022.

    I wouldn't be surprised if one of the Spring months manages it. It is the season that has managed more months more than 1C below the most recent 30 year average than any other season: 7 since 2013. Winter has seen 4, Autumn 2 and summer just one.

    • Like 1
  6.  kold weather I genuinely think its a case of the flip-flopping nature of rainfall these days as I mention above. In my own figures, every decade has a ten year average of between 638 and 690mm with the most recent 10 year average being 675mm.

    We just seem to go from extremely dry periods to wet ones now. Some examples here:

    2008: 800.4mm
    2009: 591.2mm

    2011: 455.8mm
    2012: 827.0mm
    2013: 491.0mm

    These are just over years, but it can also be seasons:

    Winter 2020: 206.4mm
    Spring 2020: 34.2mm
    Summer 2020: 233.6mm

    We just sort of get stuck in a rut these days.
     

    • Like 2
  7.  Weather-history Yes, even here in the more sheltered east the rainfall is becoming notable.

    Wettest rolling 12 month periods here since 1980:

    969.0mm: March 2019 - February 2020
    921.2mm: April 2019 - March 2020
    920.8mm: June 1980 - May 1981
    911.6mm: September 2019 - August 2020
    895.2mm: March 2023 - February 2024.

    Winter is currently 2nd wettest since 1980, Autumn was 4th wettest, Summer 10th wettest and Spring 11th wettest. 2023 was 2nd wettest as a whole.

    As seems to be the trend these days we flip flop between exceptionally wet and exceptionally dry. 2019-2020 was a very wet period, 2021-2022 very dry indeed and now 2023-24 is very wet again. March 2021 to October 2022 only had 773.8mm in 20 months.
     

    • Like 1
  8. I rate Summer 2012 as worse here despite the floods in 2007. 2007 had over 100mm more rain than 2012 but it all fell in the period 12th June - 26th July. From 27th July - 18th September 2007 only 6 days had measurable rain. August only had 51% of average rainfall and managed 210 hours of sunshine. 

    2012 was just consistently wet, dull and cool and also came after a shocking April and May (apart from the last third of May). Like 2007 the best month was August, but that failed to make up for the rest of the summer and it finished with over 100 hours less sunshine than 2007 and only topped 25C twice.

    The summer index values bear this out. 2007 finished on 221 but 2012 was the second worst on record after 1987 with just 194.

    • Like 1
  9. Top 10 dullest Februaries here since 1980:

    1980: 36 hrs
    1993: 51 hrs
    1991: 52 hrs
    2010: 55 hrs
    2011: 56 hrs
    2009: 57 hrs
    1984: 58 hrs
    2006: 58 hrs
    1982: 59 hrs
    1994: 65 hrs

    2024 so far up to the 11th: 17 hours! Today will add a few hours, but it looks poor for the next few days.

  10.  North-Easterly Blast Sorry, but the cold September = cold winter theory is just total nonsense. The coldest September of the last 30 years was 2015 with 12.7C on the CET and it was followed by the mildest winter in the series. 2013 was also below average and we all know what followed that.

    The idea that a 30 day period we choose to call a month has any reliable bearing on what happens months later is thin to say the least. The fact is, most months are warmer than average now  and getting just one below average is difficult so regardless of what September does it'll probably lead to a mild winter.

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 1
    • Insightful 1
  11.  Frigid That's the thing, you'll still get spells that are as cool, but no longer months. We cant sustain cooler than average weather long enough these days. Its the same in winter with just eight sub-3C CET winter months since 1988 (1979 to 1987 had nine alone).

    Between 1986 and 1991 we had a 11.9C June (1991), 14.6C July (1988) and 13.7C August (1986). The closest we've got to those values in the last 30 years are 13.5C, 15.3C and 15.4C.

    My point is, I think those values are beyond us in 99.9% of cases, but the weather itself has not changed massively. 

    • Like 3
  12. I'm of the view that our summers haven't fundamentally changed other than they've become warmer on average. What was once a "cool" 14.5C CET summer would now be a 16C summer but the weather is similar, albeit with warmer extremes that are more easily attained.

    With that in mind, I think a month like August 1986 is probably beyond us now, whereas a 1976-like summer might be well into the 18s for the CET.

    I dont think any amount of background warming is going to make UK summers any more reliable. We'll always get those dreadful days with frontal rain and no sun - it's just instead of it being 14C it might be 16C or 17C eventually.

  13.  cheese Indeed, we had 70 hours here in January compared to the 1991-2020 average of 61 hours. However the issue was that 37 hours of that came in the 5 day period mid-month. We've had a lot of days with little sun, 37 days since 4th December have had an hour or less of sunshine. This came after similar spells in October and November: 8.1hrs between 20th October and 4th November and 12.6 hours between 13th-25th November.

    The next "targets" are an 8th consecutive wetter than average month and the first ever February without an air frost (0.1C min so far). Both are on course for now.

  14.  Nick L Horrors like this winter seem to come along every few years now. 2013/14, 2015/16, 2016/17, 2019/20 and 2023/24.

    Apart from 5 days mid-January where we had a few crisp, sunny days, it has been relentlessly dull, wet, mild and windy. Barely a frost even.

    Its like as the climate warms any interesting or pleasant weather disappears and we're left with the rubbish. That goes for pleasant warm spells and thunderstorms in the summer aswell.

    • Thanks 1
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