Rob Walker

Sounds about right to me!

Yeah looks like a load of crap to me lol typical! Will keep an eye on it when it meets land though just in case....

Early days. Lets hope more than just the one place gets something tonight. I think that current storms got a few surprises left yet in terms of path; looks to me on rain radar like it might be heading for a split or two; and some of it has a definite northward shift in its track. We shall know soon enough!

Yes I've been thinking that. I mean I might just be seeing things but does look less like heading up the channel/france coast and more like heading for somewhere along the central south/south east?

This is new. First real fluffy clouds of the day just to the West. Still hardly a breathe of wind (tops of trees not moving) but feeling like like first hints of breeze from south atm.

I would like to add to this that it is HOT AS HELL in Salisbury right now, not a breathe of wind for the last 2 hours and temps nearing 30 across a wide range of local reporting stations. Not sure about the humidity but it's making me sweat a lot which is unusual for me in hot weather. Also, I remain hopeful here regardless; given that it has been continually sunny here all day bar 5 minutes of alto cass earlier that it might just spark something off local to me.

Its not an entire miss for the risk of storms in south and central areas (if we take metoffice precip forecasts at 16:00 and wind convergence into account) still a chance (albeit small). What the metoffice precip charts did show is that band of rain in the irish sea heading towards wales fading to nothing by 16:00 .... hmmm will have to nowcast that, cant see it dissipating entirely?

Well, guess I'll be enjoying the heat and sunshine then! Just seen my first clouds of the day to the west heading near north too

Well there's a chance I think, just less likely as the forcing from the shortwave looks to have happened east up the channel; it'll be better to just enjoy the day and see what develops rather than hanging on to forecasts as if they might actually materialise (though one things for sure; all forecasts have upped the temperature for here today). Right now there are some clouds that have literally appeared out of nowhere not far to my south west so, going by visuals and feel of the air alone it certainly looks primed here at the moment.

Hmmm upload didn't seem to work again....

So some models still lowering the likelihood of a chance of storms down central south.... meanwhile for only the second time since I can remember XC weather forecast goes the other way forecasting locally risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon here. New Picture (7).bmp

I'd take each run with a pinch of salt really - get an overall picture yes but they are hardly ever spot on. Plenty of warnings and forecasts saying risk of storms in the central south still; albeit if the risk has since increased central and eastern areas. "The vast majority of guidance suggests a few thunderstorms will develop over the English Channel and/or S/SW England 23 - 02z...." http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-05

Ooooh "The vast majority of guidance suggests a few thunderstorms will develop over the English Channel and/or S/SW England 23 - 02z, expanding in coverage through the remainder of Wednesday night." I wasn't going to bother staying up later until I saw this... tempted now!

Becaaause it shows where it has used all the cape up! Boom! Haha

Yes I agree with this. Different factors to watch out for with this coming set-up. I suspect it'll be a lot easier for storms to fire; just need plenty of sunshine both on the wednesday and the thursday till early evening. Timing of the low/respective fronts looks good in very late eve for the south on the current forecast runs so that would be another positive for at least seeing something thundery in the south.

Interesting. Very interesting. It's cap prodding time!

Incredible heat for June in england! I'm still hoping something isolated might be able to push through for the central/east southern parts later on. I mean with temps widely up in the low 30's from as far southwest as yeovil and bristol across the whole central south into the wider london area it's got to be putting some pressure that cap! And some higher moisture may just start to drift in from the west at least, dew points in yeovil and north wyke stations at 21 degrees now RH 55 and 63% respectively. Feels oppressively hot here; more so than yesterday and that hit 30 officially; and the winds still light and steady from the sse? thought was meant to have swung round sw an hour ago. . Think it hit 32 officially up on the hill at middle wallop; local stations widely reporting 33-34 in salisbury itself, mine topped 34 for a while an hour, now reading 32.5 still. Still beautiful blue skies so just going to go bask in the last rays of heat before it goes!

I would be inclined to agree; but I'm no expert I've seen 11am storms a couple of times before in Salisbury, not intense but nice to see nevertheless; and cleared away any haze for a beautiful afternoon .

This sounds nearly like an unforgettable experience I had when I was younger.... (Get ready for a hastily typed out story folks!) End of June, 1996. Moved to a village just outside Salisbury. Wall to wall blue skies, 30 degree day, hardly a breath of wind; so we had an impromptu house warming BBQ. Wall of cloud forms in the distance to the east, thunderstorm quickly builds and heads towards us. Black as the ace of spades and you could hear the thunder and feel the gust front as it approached. Luckily we had already finished the BBQ; but we hadn't even had a chance to unpack before the thunderstorm rolled over just after the sun had set; and then the power went out. Everything in boxes still; half the stuff still in the removal van; and couldn't find the torches to save out lives. No blinds were up so the Incredibly frequent lightning; nearly strobe lightning at times, illuminated the entire house. Could hardly hear ourselves think for the noise of the thunder overhead. Large hail too (that actually shattered greenhouses across eastern salisbury) and torrential rain causing a torrent down our garden and flooding the patio. Ended up all sleeping on two bare mattress and bedding just led on the floor of the living room as couldn't see to put the beds up and halving to cope with the lightning continuously illuminating the room through our hastily put up "sheet curtains". At 1am woken up by a collosal noise; never heard anything close to it in my entire life; which was the manor house opposite being struck by a huge bolt of lightning. Turned out the next day that the chimney in a top floor bedroom had been struck and collapsed into a bedroom, and that a relative of the manor house owners staying in that bedroom had nearly died in hospital from his injuries :s Was a terrifyingly bonkers experience and it lasted nearly all the night before subduing around 3/4am. Patio was still flooded come 8am in the morning. .....Guess that's what sparked my interest in the weather thinking about it!

Melting here! been blue skies from 8am Just pipped over 32 in the more exposed front garden; reading just over 33.5 (in fairly deep shade) in the back garden!!! I do live in a low lying area just near the edge of salisbury and my back garden (bar shade at the end) is a sheltered south facing sun trap and often is a few degrees above the front (I've switched the thermometers back and forth before it still reads the same difference) so not surprised I'm once again getting a degree or two above the official temps in the back garden... But really quite surprised it's reading a couple over 30 out the front! Anyway; Certainly seems a bit hotter again here today, Feels fairly humid too. Can see a few larger clouds bubbling up in the distance to the north west too... Someone get prodding that cap!!!

Doh - forgot to multi quote!.... Seems it could be quite localised (as some clouds in warminster and bournemouth too and they're not too far from me) but for me not a cloud in the sky here; beautiful blue skies and not a breath of wind... and it's feeling fairly hot already!

Must be somewhat localised not a cloud in the sky here; beautiful blue skies and not a breath of wind... and it's feeling fairly hot already!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=stormforecast;sess= Yeah, lol 2897j/kg for Thusday afternoon in Salisbury.. BOOM. Some of the maps don't gel with local stats from what I'm seeing, but where the is cape shown, it looks optimistic at least! Saying that, think its fair to say that it's looking like the energy will be there for most central southern and eastern parts at some point regardless of cherry picked stats or charts, see how things go tomorrow eve and how models look.

Good call. Shame you're not west enough to take a route through salisbury!