Frost HoIIow

Well as long as I can remember more often than not we've had a rubbish climate. Long cold Winters which the majority on here want are not guaranteed let's face it a 2 day toppler isn't what most want either, although right now I would take it. Nor are long hot Summers guaranteed. The problem is where we are located in Europe. At the start of the Atlantic onslaught and at the end of the Siberian express. So in the Winter we are much more likely to get wet and windy weather rather than cold and snowy weather. For guaranteed bitter cold for at least a week or so in the Winter ideally you have to live from east Germany/Poland eastwards and the further east the colder it usually gets. Generally most of lowland western Europe (UK, Ireland, France, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Holland, Western & Central Germany) is crap for Winter weather because they are all influenced massively by the Atlantic and always have.

LOL at this rate you might not be wrong. Happy New Year everyone.

A little blob of snow over the Pennines later today if this turns out correct It's a start at least, hopefully this will extend to lower levels soon

Ah yes the model output discussion & the Winter drama queens. Now I'm a "seasonal" sort of guy who loves cold and snow but equally enjoy hot Summer weather. So where do the people who only enjoy cold go during Summer? do they actually hibernate or take a break to the southern hemisphere where the seasons are the polar opposite to ours? *mind the pun*

Well no one has - we're not half way through Winter yet. Over the next few days temps look like lowering close to normal anyway so I very much doubt we will be having a record breaking mild January either. At the moment there is nothing to suggest that.

Probably relatively low given we have a maritime climate, I think the fantastic cold spells in 2010 upped peoples quite a bit. If I lived in Lithuania or something my expectations would be high every Winter, but that's because they have a continental climate. Anyway I agree it's been milder than normal no doubt about it for the vast majority of the UK.

It would be great to get a prolonged cold spell but if we don't the world ain't going to end. The weather will do what it wants. And no amount of moaning on here or reverse psychology will change that. Other then leave people even more disappointed. Get you're expectations too high in the UK and more often than not you will be.

Yes. The coldest uppers stay over the other side of the North Sea on the GFS 6z. However with an easterly flow you don't need to rely completely on the upper air temps for snow or living on high ground as the dew point is usually a good deal lower from a continental easterly feed as opposed to one from another source like Polar Maritime.

The end of Dec 1995 was certainly cold here, I recorded a max of -7C on the 27th and a min of -15C on the 28th...just a shame it was only a short but sharp freeze. Non the less I had to wait until January 2010 to see temps as cold. The cold in Dec 1995 was very much a Scotland/Northern England event.

I don't think so. I remember people saying after the extremely wet Autumn 2000 that this would be a regular occurrence but we haven't had an Autumn as wet as that since then. 15 years ago now.

This just shows how wet December has been - looks like some places on high ground have exceeded 1000mm. Yes that's 1000mm not 100mm. Unsurprisingly Cumbria, North Lancs, North Wales & Western Scotland took the brunt of it. But of course places much further down stream of the heaviest rainfall have seen the worst flooding with Manchester & Leeds city centres seeing flooding as well. The result of heavy rain on the Pennines.

Feb 2012 cold spell http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2012/archives-2012-2-2-12-1.png We got snow on the 4th as milder air moved in from the Atlantic and came against the cold that was in place.

Could end up like early Feb 2012 with that cold spell. I know for the far west it was rubbish as the cold didn't get that far west but it wasn't too bad here with a very decent covering on the 4th.

Worrying times. Especially with Fergie's update on twitter that someone in the mod thread quoted. Looks *drier* but still on the mild side into January, No one is infallible but the Met have been almost spot on so far this Winter with their updates. One straw to clutch is a few weeks ago he said potentially late Winter/February could be cold.

Last Winter was very marginal. One fall we missed on was in the middle of January purely for being only 40 metres or so too low. I got to about 130m and was in the snow line, climbed higher into Oldham town centre (220m asl) to be greeted by about a good 5 inches of snow, nothing at all here. The end of January was quite good though with 2 decent falls on back to back evenings here. Just the nature of the Polar Maritime air meant the snow was rather wet and it didn't last all that long the ground. Overall I'd say last Winter was average here, certainly no 2010 but certainly wasn't poor either.

Special weather events stick in the memory more. Most people have selective memory. If you can give examples of cold Winters and hot Summers since you have been alive then go ahead but I'm certain the mild Winters and cool Summers outnumber them. As far as I know our climate is not continental in which cold Winters and hot Summers dominate. Ours is maritime climate unfortunately.

Indeed. For as long as I can remember our climate has never been famed for cold Winters or hot Summers. Just the rain, even the Romans complained about it when they were here. You can get the odd exception to the mild Winters and cool Summers but for the most part they are few and far between. I guess when we get a long cold Winter or long hot Summer they are special because they are rare!

Yes a SE wind like on that day in March 2013 is terrible for here - we get a pronounced snow shadow off the Pennines, yet strangely I've noticed an E or NE wind is fine and snow manages to get over with a decent streamer off the North sea. We seem to be just about far enough East in the region to benefit. Manchester city centre westwards and you are pushing it for decent amounts from the East. January 2013 was quite good with a couple of decent falls of about 6 inches from the East. But not as deep as January 2010 like you mention.

Indeed, below is the distribution of the rain fall over 24 hours, Basically the further east and south you are the drier it has been. It's typical though because when rain moves in a SW to NE direction the south part of the region is protected by the Welsh mountains.

11.8C here. Dew point 10C. That is some seriously mild air above us for the time of year. Temp slowly creeping up all the time.

Where is laserguy anyway? I thought as the days grow shorter laserguy grows stronger when I was a lurker I used to chuckle at his rants.

I don't mind the long dark nights/mornings it's not an inconvenience at all to me, I prefer it better than the sun rising at stupid o'clock in June & the birds beginning to chirp loudly if you cannot get to sleep properly. I would like to experience an Arctic Winter like in Northern Scandinavia/Russia where the sun doesn't even rise through part of December, it would feel a bit odd I bet but very cosy and wintry with the snow outside.

For sure Scotland can get some decent snows from Easterly's but I reckon NE England takes the prize for the amount of snow from the East. North York Moors & North Pennines in particular. No doubt Scotland especially the Northern part of Scotland does better than anywhere in the UK from Northerly's & PM air. The South-East of England, in particular Kent can do very well from a NE wind as seen in January 1987 when they got absolutely buried. And the upper air temps's down there were close to -20C http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=0&month=1&day=12&year=1987&map=2&hour=0

Yeah, that's the thing - elevation is king in the UK. But places in Eastern Europe for example don't have to rely on that as much as the UK does, of course it still matters but they don't have to worry as much (if a person likes snow over there, I'm sure there will be many). The continent generally has colder dew points and upper air temps during the Winter, is away from that awful gulf stream and influence of the large Atlantic. But this Winter *so far* has been milder than normal over there.

I see your point about 1984 but those are rare and the exception rather than the rule, the fact is unless you live very high up a mountain no inhabited places in the UK gets a great deal of snow or incredible cold most Winters. I wish that wasn't the case but I don't want to delude myself. Our climate for the most part is rubbish considering how far north all the UK is.