Frost HoIIow

For me ideal time for a proper cold spell is from now until about mid Feb, we are now in the time of year when we can tap into properly cold upper air temps. Late Feb & March 2018 was great with some magnificent drifts round here but I did think what if it was a month to 6 weeks earlier. Would've given January 1987 a run for it's money that's for sure. It just seems very difficult to get a great cold spell in the dead of Winter these days. Last one was January 2013. Nearly 8 years ago.

It's going to be all right. Remember Winter 1947 didn't get going until late January

Yes until the Met Office are more consistent about a proper cold spell I'm not going to be taken in by any long range stratospheric developments in other threads by the usual suspects. The Met office are our national weather service so I take them a bit more seriously than people like nick Sussex, Tamara, Bluearmy, Steve Murr or Chionomanic etc. No disrespect to them but whilst these people are evidently knowledgeable they only see what they have access to. Who can forget GP's very bullish "Torpedo" in 2013-2014 but in the end it did not happen & was a very poor Winter. The Met have access to models that people in here don't. And for the most part those professional models are more accurate, not infallible mind you, what is at the end of the day? but they are better than what we get to see on meteociel or wetterzentrale. Been plenty of times we've been led down the garden path by these standard models, even very close to an event only for the Met to remain resolute nothing was going to happen and they were correct. Obviously they had their own models that outperformed what we see.

Haha I doubt it.....20C is really pushing it but 30C is impossible in December in this country even in a warming climate. This far north the sun is too weak in December. A couple of Winters ago we had that freak warm spell right at the end of February 2019 and we got close to 20C then & some areas did breach 20C but that's probably the earliest opportunity for it to happen.

Don't take a pi*s outside in this weather.

I remember the month for all the wrong reasons as it was a relative's funeral on New Year's Eve. We struggled to get there as there was a lot of snow round here. Remember it taking a while to get the car out of the drive. Typical to happen on a day like that but we got there in the end. Got to Salford and there was practically no snow over there.

Looks like staying chilly until probably next Thursday now. Any mild weather keeps getting pushed back (which is often a good omen). Surface cold could get stronger & further wintry surprises might pop up. Ok it's not 2010 but let's face it that year early & late would be difficult to compete against, it was a superb year for cold & snow but to the here & now I can think of worse beginnings to Winter. We're not staring down the barrel of SWly muck or a boring euro high that can be parked there for weeks on end.

Relative in Stockport at the same elevation as me had none at all either, but here I've had about an inch covering on the grassy areas. Certainly looks like the further north you are the better you did regardless of height.

Back to huge flakes here now. Absolutely belting if down!

Turning a bit more sleety now. A covering on favoured surfaces. I'm happy with today, first covering before Xmas is a bonus. Doesn't happen all that often in this country.

At last. Getting heavier here now & beginning to stick.

Snowing here but still no accumulation, it's just wetting the ground more than anything. Just needs to be a bit more intense.

Even if we don't get any proper snow tonight or tomorrow I think we're in the game for a while with possible surprises popping up at short notice. I've noticed any mild weather keeps getting pushed further back. Yesterday most weather apps was showing a max temp of 7C for next Tuesday but now today this has gone down to 3C. So the models are underestimating the reluctance of the cold to step aside & let the Atlantic come through. It's staying cold for the foreseeable.

Snowing here now but wet.

Yeah I think it's probably game over, prospects for later & tomorrow down the bog. 3C here with icy cold rain.

Haha indeed CS. I've looked at models on meteociel and there's discrepancies between a few of them regarding the white stuff. I think it'll be a nowcast situation. But I'll be surprised if no where in our region gets a covering by the end of weekend, it will certainly be cold enough. Of course it'll be more marginal by day but in any night time showers they should readily turn more wintry not just on high ground. I'm glad to be discussing this now as it's pretty rare in this country to be snow hunting before the winter solstice. It's good we're in with a shout now and not waiting until February as usual.

No harm in discussing what the *short term* models are showing? However transient it may be some snow is better than no snow.

Small upgrades today. Looks like the snow opportunities have increased a tad into the weekend as well.

Right now Thursday/Friday is looking good for the region. Some things are going for us at present - cold air mass, the region on the northern side of the LP & relatively light winds should all help with potential snow. The slow moving LP system seems to chuck in a lot of precipitation at us and some of this will probably be wintry as early as Thursday morning for high ground but the best chances for more of us will be Thursday night into Friday.

Noticed Granada reports saying turning much more wintery later this week with snow on higher ground. Of course they are covering all bases at the moment by leaving out lower ground. At the moment though I think it looks promising for those of us inland with modest height. As usual though the further away from the Irish sea the better where dew points & marginality will be lower.

It's coming

Already -2.4C here with a frost on all surfaces. Much colder than last night. Probably won't stay like that though as cloud is supposed to roll in later on.

Despite being in a valley it's a funny location here for fog as we just don't seem to get it. I know places lower down get it more around west and south Manchester & Cheshire. And the hill tops on the Pennines. We're in between those areas so tend to miss out on most of it. Watch this in the morning I will wake up to dense fog.

Yes my brother was living in Blackpool at the time & rang me to say his street was buried in about 40cm of snow. Obviously this was a time before you could instantly send pictures over by phone so I didn't truly believe him at first until he visited a few weeks later & showed us the pictures on his Nikon camera. It looked an extraordinary event for the coast.