Frost HoIIow

Interesting model output today but I'm keeping my feet on the ground until the Met Office come on board. Past experience tells me that's a wise thing to do. It saves a lot of disappointment. Because their LRF is having none of this cold as we go into December.

A remarkable spell of weather. Between late November and early December we didn't get above zero for 8 days straight. And during the second surge of bitter air later on in December we didn't get above zero for a further 10 straight days. Very unusual indeed. River Medlock at the bottom of my field frozen solid during both spells. I still remember ice crystals falling from a clear sky one morning when we dipped close to -18C. From the 24th November through to the end of December there was only 6 nights above freezing here. The big thaw came on Boxing day though. The rest of the Winter was very different though, February notably was very mild.

Cheers Ian. Not what most on here including myself wanted to see but we'll see how it all pans out.

First snow of the Autumn/Winter in Vladivostok, Russia.

Pretty wild out there at the moment with wind & rain. In terms of this Winter don't lose the faith guys. I know the last 2 years have been trying to say the least but I think we'll have at least 1 good cold spell this time round, can't guarantee a 2009/2010 special though (which now seems ages ago!). But we are still a long way from Spring.

Noticing the met office are tentatively moving away from their previously bullish long range out look of below average temps. Now it's changed to "close to or just below average". But it's not the norm to get a very good cold spell before Xmas anyway. Which is what made Nov/Dec 2010 all the more unusual & special. I reckon we'll have to be patient this Winter.....again

Yes looking probable for marked cool down at the end of this coming week. Temps struggling to get much above 4 or 5C inland on Friday with some winteryness about on the hills. Still 6 days away though yet and could get snatched away. To the here & now it's got up to 14C round here today which is pretty impressive for mid November.

But even up here we only had a light covering one morning which was gone by around lunch time. Probably the 2nd worst winter I can remember. 2013-14 was probably worst I've experienced in my 70 years though with just a dusting one evening. All the more disappointing given the previous winter was a good one. To have two of the worst less than 10 years apart tells me that climate change is the likely culprit.

First snowfall of the Autumn/Winter in Asahikawa, Japan. One of the world's snowiest cities. Link to webcam https://www.stv.jp/webcam/asahikawa/index.html

Yes all very benign at the moment and unusually so there's not really been any proper storms yet this Autumn, with none likely for the foreseeable either. I think we'll have to be patient for the next few weeks though. I do like the sound of the Met Office long range outlook for the start of December in terms of wintery weather. But they've said the same thing before only for it not to happen. Think it was a couple of winters ago it kept getting pushed back.

Both GFS and ECM toying with the idea of heights building over Scandinavia mid month, this in turn dragging in some pretty fridgid air into Europe from the east. How far west this could get is pure conjecture, as it's way out in la la land to take it seriously. Nice to see this quite early in the season though. As usual given how far west the UK & Ireland is we often need a few bites of the cherry to tap into these synoptics, but for me it makes it more satisfying when it does come.

We can definitely get decent snow in November. 1996, 2005, 2010 just a few of the more notable examples off the top of my head from round here, no doubt there's more. More recently we had a covering of snow in November 2017 as well. Right now there's nothing pointing to an above average November this year.

What a shocking day. Looking forward to the potential dry weather next week....hopefully it doesn't downgrade!

My GP said we cannot make it naturally at this time of year this far north even on a clear sunny day. Something to do with the sun angle not being high enough now. She could be wrong though, she is human after all haha. Apparently we can from late March until about mid September.

Hopefully plenty of the white stuff this winter mate I think we deserve it after last Winters no show!

Squall line moving through right now. Some pretty intense rain.

To be honest I'm not too bothered if it turns out like that. It would be nice to get a seasonal xmas but if we don't we don't. I remember getting worried around that time in 2012 and at the turn of the new year but things massively turned around in mid January with a big SSW. Had a few decent snow events from then on into March.

As someone old enough to remember the brilliant 62-63 Winter there was also some pretty mild almost snowless winters in the 60s & 70s too. But some good periods like the late 70s and up to 87. Some very good easterlys in there with plenty of snow. We just don't have a continental climate and 40-50 years ago didn't either. So relatively mild Winters have prevailed for a long long time. Not just from 88. But yes from then on snow has for the most part become an even rarer thing unless your half way up a mountain.

What a vile afternoon. Pretty much going dark an hour ago. Got a stew almost done in the slow cooker washed down with some ale. Certainly a night for a hearty meal. Not a Mediterranean salad kinda night haha

It will be interesting to see how things go because so far we haven't had a mild Autumn so unless it's an exceptionally mild November I reckon sea temps might be a bit depressed going into Winter. It's been pretty cool this month as was September. But overall having said that I'm not a huge fan of snow from the Irish Sea as it tends to be fleeting, slushy but snow is snow and I'll take it. I just love a proper beast with the powdery snow with drifts and you just don't need to worry about marginality like you do with a polar maritime/nw airflow. I know places in the west of the region don't tend to benefit from an easterly but round here it's the best direction when we get it full on.

Yes 98/99 wasn't great but it was a bit better than the last two Winters we've had. 99/00 I don't remember much about it so must have been pretty mediocre. 00/01 was quite good though. Turned properly cold in late December with some significant snowfall. And the February wasn't too bad either, again with snowfall. Between 1997 and 2008 it was one of the better Winters for snow & cold in what was a mostly poor decade for it really. Most Winters only managed a brief covering of snow. Big flip to cold from late 2008 through to 2013 though and apart from beast from the east in 2018 we've been back to square one from 2014. Let's see how this Winter unravels though.

Mars looked great tonight - a really bright orangey glow in the sky. Just wish I still had a telescope.

Might not get out of single figures round here tomorrow looking at the local met office forecast. Certainly a very Autumnal day with showers or longer spells of rain at times too.

Indeed. The amount of times I've tried to do the same only for cloud to scupper it. A consequence of the NW being the cloudiest region in England.

What an incredible year that was for wintry weather. A cracking January and February and then Winter quick out the blocks in November leading to the coldest December for god knows how long.